• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

6cd4c1f7a06350d0da7f9063f4149ebd.jpg


“Experience and Pattern Recognition tells me this has that look even this early”. For those not in this area…… 4-6 on The meter is a big deal I’ve seen 7+ 2x in like 15yrs. Dec 2018/Feb2014


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
GSP
Key message 3: Snow chances continue to gradually increase for this
weekend in association with likely development of low pressure off
the Carolina coast. If snow were to fall, impacts to travel can be
expected due to the cold temperatures prior to onset.

The main focus of the forecast will be for increasing snow potential
this weekend. Guidance is in good agreement in depicting several key
synoptic features, but their eventual timing and evolution will
heavily dictate what transpires across the region. Starting off on
the hemispheric scale, our primary feature of interest is a strong
Tropopause Polar Vortex (TPV) currently on the south side of the
Hudson Bay as noted by anomalously high pressure on the 2 PVU
surface. This feature is rotating around a much larger gyre and is
forecast to move west towards the Canadian Prairies tomorrow into
Thursday before dropping across the Northern Plains into the Midwest
late Thursday into Friday. This potent arctic trough will quickly
evolve from a strong positive tilt to a neutral tilt by Saturday as
an intense upper low closes off. At the same time, a tall western
ridge builds from the Great Basin through the Cascades while a
second piece of energy drops out of the Rockies and into the
Southern Plains. A subtropical jet will also extend from the eastern
Pacific across the Gulf States. Eventually, a coastal low will
likely develop along the East Coast.

Cold air will be readily available and supportive of a mainly snow
event with any precipitation that occurs, however, the timing and
evolution of these features will be key as to the magnitude of any
snowfall. To realize a higher-end snowfall, snow lovers will want to
see the arctic trough trend farther west and dig over the Deep South
and phase with the second piece of energy dropping over Texas. This
would also favor the development of a Gulf low along coastal
baroclinic zone and a classic Miller A event. Another scenario
exists where the troughs do not phase, the arctic trough is too far
east, and the coastal low develops too far off the east coast and
remains far enough offshore to leave us moisture starved. And
thirdly, should the upper low close off over our area it could
support a few inches of snow regardless of how the coastal low
evolves. Expected temperatures will be cold enough that even an
inch or two of snow could prove hazardous on roads. Thus, while the
trend is towards at least some degree of accumulating snowfall, the
forecast is far from certain and could trend either way through the
week. The reader is strongly encouraged to check the latest forecast
each day for updates.
 
Is it possible for it to trend so far west as to give us deep deep southerners some temperature issues or is that not something to worry about given the setup?
 
SnowedIn1 said:
According to the 00z RGEM we(ATL area)are soundly in the game.
Click to expand...

Yep, you want the northern stream to delay slightly and allow the phase to amplify the surface low, and therefore delay its eastward progression such that the moisture on the western backside will convert to (hopefully) stronger & perhaps lengthier precipitation.

Even the slightest of northern ticks will help, especially at this range.
 
iGRXY said:
RGEM would’ve smoked North Georgia and the western Carolinas off the ULL alone. The coastal would’ve given some huge totals across the Piedmont and 77 corridor in NC if that run had continued
Click to expand...
RGEM moving precip east to west (backwards!) again here in NC/SC That’s a dynamic look

IMG_4734.gif


Surface temperatures at the end of the run

IMG_4735.png
 
Something else to watch: if this energy ejects more of itself further east ahead-of or in synchrony with the polar vortex. Models are known to hold back energy too much over here. Doesn’t mean all of it will come east, but they sometimes don’t know what to do with it until it’s very short range. IMG_2618.png
 
griteater said:
RGEM moving precip east to west (backwards!) again here in NC/SC That’s a dynamic look

View attachment 190351


Surface temperatures at the end of the run
Click to expand...
See those precip waves rolling onto the se nc coast moving northwestward. About to produce bigly as they amplify inland. That's how I saw the Jan 2000 storm behave. Got raked with those for hour upon hour as coastal LP just blew up
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top