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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

May not work out for North and South Carolina but thats a large winter event in the south.
snku_024h.conus.png
 
if you're on the Leeside of the Applachians, don't expect snow from this. We don't get snow in NW flow events so it's certainly not happening with this thing. Unless returns make it over the mountain tops and reform on the on the backside, which can't even be accurately forecasted ahead of time, it ain't happening
 
I mentioned this yesterday, based on a Euro run, but take care to watch out for something coming out of the Southern jet. It might just be enough (as we get closer in time) to help spark things quite well for those in AL, TN & parts of GA. Any little bit helps in this situation, to get some kind of Gulf moisture involved.

I'm waiting on one of the models to really pick something up outta the South.
 
1300m said:
This is a very complex set of vorticity interactions. This one is a long way from being settled. 00z NAM had more energy further southwest, but not as congealed. This will take a while to figure out I believe.
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Yup spokes of energy flying around that PV may wind up being timing issue revolving around one of those
 
To go with my above post, although worthless this far out, on the 12KM NAM you can see a bundle back there coming outta the West into Texas.

While this isn't quite the area I am watching, its quite a change from even the 18z NAM and kind of gives an idea of something possibly showing up later.

EDIT: Looking a little closer, the speed allowed things to change back there.
 
Shawn said:
To go with my above post, although worthless this far out, on the 12KM NAM you can see a bundle back there coming outta the West into Texas.

While this isn't quite the area I am watching, its quite a change from even the 18z NAM and kind of gives an idea of something possibly showing up later.
Click to expand...

I was looking at the RH maps at the 700mb-925mb levels and it looks like there would be more moisture at the southern edge of the frontal band than what it's currently showing. Perhaps the mountains do dry out the moisture before it reaches the Atlanta area and points west, but RH values particularly at the 700mb level look healthy.
 
1300m said:
This is a very complex set of vorticity interactions. This one is a long way from being settled. 00z NAM had more energy further southwest, but not as congealed. This will take a while to figure out I believe.
Click to expand...
Imho sone good trends. Didn't it slow down a bit as well?
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
if you're on the Leeside of the Applachians, don't expect snow from this. We don't get snow in NW flow events so it's certainly not happening with this thing. Unless returns make it over the mountain tops and reform on the on the backside, which can't even be accurately forecasted ahead of time, it ain't happening
Click to expand...
But you said in your first and second sentences no snow. Then in your third you said it might happen. Which is it? I'm confused

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
1300m said:
I agree. Yes slower and further west. IMO it actually took a step towards an even bigger event. We will see how it trends over the next 24hrs.
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If it can continue to dig and tilt more neutral, I can easily see this turning into a more grander overrunning event. That's my personal hope anyway. Not giving up hope.
 
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