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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

Storm5 said:
Lol 2-3 inches.....
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That's right. You are more fickle than the wind..You just posted less than 24 hours ago on facebook how excited you were for Tuesday. smh
More from Chris: Chris Lisauckis , Snowdex is my attempt to design a composite index to forecast accumulating snow. The calculation includes six terms which include various low and mid level thermodynamic, buoyancy, and water vapor parameters and is scaled such that negative values represent little to no snow. Positive values indicate snow and roughly correlate to 5-30 = 1-2", 30-50 = 2-3", 50-70 = 4-5", 70-90 = 6-10" etc. Designing it started in January of 2017 and I've seen good success with it thus far. It's still heavily under development so I'm trying to use it cautiously to forecast publicly for now. Interestingly, values calculated from model data this morning favor several inches of snow on Tuesday across northern AL.
 
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I'm not concerned at the moment, especially for my area of North Carolina. I'll tell you why. Look how quickly this potential event came up on the models, look how quickly the "trends" are taking it away. Just yesterday at this time, we were looking at a nice event, now not so much. We have time for this to trend in our favor, or trend to nothing. It's still too early in my opinion to be saying "poof" or to be saying it's gonna be a major storm. I'm still thinking two more days at least, maybe even three, before buying in or throwing in the towel. Give it a few more days, folks.

Something I've learned over the years is not to live or die by every single model run of every model. Especially this season, it's testing that more than ever.
 
Stormlover said:
That's right. You are more fickle than the wind..You just posted less than 24 hours ago on facebook how excited you were for Tuesday. smh
More from Chris: Chris Lisauckis , Snowdex is my attempt to design a composite index to forecast accumulating snow. The calculation includes six terms which include various low and mid level thermodynamic, buoyancy, and water vapor parameters and is scaled such that negative values represent little to no snow. Positive values indicate snow and roughly correlate to 5-30 = 1-2", 30-50 = 2-3", 50-70 = 4-5", 70-90 = 6-10" etc. Designing it started in January of 2017 and I've seen good success with it thus far. It's still heavily under development so I'm trying to use it cautiously to forecast publicly for now. Interestingly, values calculated from model data this morning favor several inches of snow on Tuesday across northern AL.
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Excited and reality are two different things . The trend is clear . Nothing supports 2-3 inches. Nothing . I'm gonna create a reality index

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00z vs 12z
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Storm5 said:
Excited and reality are two different things . The trend is clear . Nothing supports 2-3 inches. Nothing . I'm gonna create a reality index

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I would say it would support maybe 2 inches with the higher ratio in this case .
But You have to have some type of moisture available to have a 20:1ratio. Its hard to have a 20:1 ratio with no moisture. Lol.
 
Storm5 said:
12z eps members
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That's game folks west of NC. I see one member that supports the secondary area of precip and it's pitful. The clipper itself should continue to trend north and we will issue flizzard watches for anyone south of central TN.
 
Air warms up into the 60's and it moistens up enough to give us almost an 3/4 inch of rain yesterday, cold air comes in and precip evaporates, just the way it is in the SE most of the time. Why we start a storm thread more than 2 days out based on the current quality of the models remains a mystery
 
Flizzard looking for central NC. Flizzards can be a short-term pretty snowfall for just looks, or they can be disastrous (Cary 2006) as I was driving there that little quick flizzard left us stuck. So which kind of flizzard could this be???
 
Put this in Banter earlier today, but upon reading all of this, I'm re-posting here, as it seems mildly appropriate; Mods, if you want me to delete, please PM me and I'll do so promptly ...

Folks, Chill.
Model runs are not generated by Divine Inspiration, nor are they scripted by Mathew, Mark, Luke or John ... :confused:
 
When ensembles drastically change, it's a warning shot guys. The GEFS & EPS did that last night; and most modeling is following that idea as you head East toward the Carolinas.
 
Storm5 said:
Excited and reality are two different things . The trend is clear . Nothing supports 2-3 inches. Nothing . I'm gonna create a reality index

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totally disagree, even .10 of qpf with the ratios can be 2-3 inches
 
Shawn said:
When ensembles drastically change, it's a warning shot guys. The GEFS & EPS did that last night; and most modeling is following that idea as you head East toward the Carolinas.
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Yeah, it's not a good direction. I will be happy to see more snow this winter, but if don't think this one is going to be that exciting. Maybe we will see a good shift, but until then, we need to chill a bit. I think we either need no threats or a true big one to calm people. So many storm potentials, only 2 or 3 producers.
 
hartselleweather said:
I would say it would support maybe 2 inches with the higher ratio in this case .
But You have to have some type of moisture available to have a 20:1ratio. Its hard to have a 20:1 ratio with no moisture. Lol.
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there is still .10 even on the latest euro in parts of north ala
 
Stormlover said:
totally disagree, even .10 of qpf with the ratios can be 2-3 inches
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Why do you always argue against FACTS. The fact is the trend towards a drier solution is real . Can it change??? Of course. It could go back to a more promising solution or it could just be a cold dry front .

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Storm5 said:
Why do you always argue against FACTS. The fact is the trend towards a drier solution is real . Can it change??? Of course. It could go back to a more promising solution or it could just be a cold dry front .

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My point is you go from all gun-ho one day to all down about the prospects the next. How do you know what the trends will be tomorrow..or Monday? This is still our best chance in weeks, or best all season here in north Ala, because it will be all snow and it won't take much at all to cause problems, even .05 to .10
 
Stormlover said:
My point is you go from all gun-ho one day to all down about the prospects the next. How do you know what the trends will be tomorrow..or Monday? This is still our best chance in weeks, or best all season here in north Ala, because it will be all snow and it won't take much at all to cause problems, even .05 to .10
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I'm just waiting on the RPM.....

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