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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

1300m said:
Thats actually not what I'm saying. I'm saying that through at least the first 72 hours this run looked even better than yesterday's 12z run, but afterwards handled the energy differently. Perhaps it is right, but it wouldn't take much at all to return to yesterday's solution based on how the H5 evolution unfolded on this run.
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Wasn't there a point with the last storm where we did this same thing? The model run looked better but the final output was worse?
 
Webberweather53 said:
While the surface output is less impressive than yesterday wrt snowfall in NC, the mid-upper level features are trending favorably for more snow in the Carolinas. As we observed w/ our mammoth coastal storm a little over a week ago, it's important not to get too enthralled w/ run-to-run variability in surface output (esp precipitation) whose frequency spectrum is more susceptible to mesoscale variability that's not easily resolved by global models like the GFS, but instead focus on what's happening at the synoptic-scale in the mid-upper levels where these mesoscale phenomena (like convective precipitation) take time to grow upscale & significantly impact the forecast....
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No snow in GA. Calling it now. It's a Carolina or West SE and TN storm. With that said, H5 is looking fine for you guys, but we need a trend to the SW, a good tilt early on, and a weak low. That would put me in the game and many others, but for now, I'm safe saying too dry for N GA.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I know this is starting to get out into la-la land but boy by day 5-6 as our s/w is leaving the picture it becomes one heck of a 50-50 low & pumps the heights over Greenland, leading to a pretty favorable planetary look for a Miller A cyclone... Very conspicuous to say the least...
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Here's the Miller A z500 composite I constructed for NC using some of the modern big dogs... Yea this pattern to a first approximation looks good.
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Brick Tamland said:
So why are we seeing less precip now if the features are actually trending more favorably?
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Because as 1300 stated they trended more favorably within the first 72 hrs but then kind of pooped out after that so the surface was actually accurate according to what was going on at "go time" at H5, watch trends Brick not specifics.... seriously the GFS is different at H5 beyond 72 hrs just about every run, consistent it isn't
 
ForsythSnow said:
No snow in GA. Calling it now. It's a Carolina or West SE and TN storm. With that said, H5 is looking fine for you guys, but we need a trend to the SW, a good tilt early on, and a weak low. That would put me in the game and many others, but for now, I'm safe saying too dry for N GA.
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Yep, we will be dry as a bone.
 
ForsythSnow said:
No snow in GA. Calling it now. It's a Carolina or West SE and TN storm. With that said, H5 is looking fine for you guys, but we need a trend to the SW, a good tilt early on, and a weak low. That would put me in the game and many others, but for now, I'm safe saying too dry for N GA.
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beg your pardon, but Alabama is going to be fine
 
Storm5 said:
That remains to be seen. This could easily be a dry front . All options are on the table.

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Agreed, this could turn out to be nothing for everyone except west of the Mississippi
 
This is still a few days out. Lots of time for things to change-for better or worse. I personally am enjoying the return to winter temps.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The last several GFS runs have actually trended towards a stronger ridge over the NW Territories and Alaska which is favorable for our s/w to dig more into the eastern side of the Rockies s/w ridge...
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I see what you're saying...I was referring within the Rockies themselves with the 567dm contour line in Southern Canada on the 6z, where it's more into Wyoming on the 12z run...and only interpreting wjy the GFS had shown less enthusiasm with the longwave trough over the Carolinas.
 
Stormsfury said:
I see what you're saying...I was referring within the Rockies themselves with the 567dm contour line in Southern Canada on the 6z, where it's more into Wyoming on the 12z run...and only interpreting wjy the GFS had shown less enthusiasm with the longwave trough over the Carolinas.
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Even w/ a weaker s/w ridge over the US rockies, the rather extreme alterations in the ACWB over NW North America the past several runs of the GFS is favorable for a digging trough near the longitude of the Great Lakes & MS Valley. I don't think the GFS is done adjusting in this regard
 
Looks like Ukie goes neutral sooner, sharper with the trough....
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Storm5 said:
It's simple everyone on the board needs to pull for the slower trough progression that the Euro is showing.

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Yep and what helps that is a more SW dig and a cutoff ULL

I agree with Webber & 1300m I see some slight (and I mean slight) positives from 06z to 12z on the GFS. As shown here from 12z, 0z, and 12z, the energy is stronger on the 12z GFS in relation to 6z — but still closely resembles the overall look of the 0z frame. We need it digging, period. Until then, moisture will be little to nil. All eyes are on the Euro for me.

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Jon said:
Yep and what helps that is a more SW dig and a cutoff ULL

I agree with Webber & 1300m I see some slight (and I mean slight) positives from 06z to 12z on the GFS. As shown here from 12z, 0z, and 12z, the energy is stronger on the 12z GFS in relation to 6z — but still closely resembles the overall look of the 0z frame. We need it digging, period. Until then, moisture will be little to nil. All eyes are on the Euro for me.

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The 0z suite looked like a hiccup, the last 7-8 runs or so have consistently been slowing this s/w down & digging it deeper into the side of the Rockies ridge, and this recent GFS run was a return to that longer-term trend, which as aforementioned, is related to the GFS's handling the ACWB over AK/NW Canada that it apparently botched...
 
Webberweather53 said:
DWD-ICON looks better than the 0z suite & is in line w/ what the 0z ECMWF is showing... I would definitely trust these models more in a situation like this over the GFS/CMC especially when the latter 2 models are trending towards their solution
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The CMC is so horrid I’m actually not even looking at it. Considering it has this at 144hrs lol.....all of a sudden the next run it flipped to an entirely different upper air pattern. Laughable really.

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Webberweather53 said:
DWD-ICON looks better than the 0z suite & is in line w/ what the 0z ECMWF is showing... I would definitely trust these models more in a situation like this over the GFS/CMC especially when the latter 2 models are trending towards their solution
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So is the ICON modle trending closer the Euro past runs? Just trying to learn from you guys. And if it does trend to euro like than thats a positive trend
 
Well hopefully dr. no will be good to all of us and increase precipitation will know soon LOL
 
With the ICON looking decent and the Ukmet looking decent I'd expect the Euro to hold serve if not improve a smidge....
 
deltadog03 said:
Well hopefully dr. no will be good to all of us and increase precipitation will know soon LOL
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Well the GFS really is a head scratcher now...

At hr84, SIM IR Satellite lights up, and that coupled with the development of a dual 250mb jet structure really argues for a wetter run than what was displayed ...

gfs_uv250_us_16.png


gfs_ir_us_15.png
 
Stormsfury said:
Well the GFS really is a head scratcher now...

At hr84, SIM IR Satellite lights up, and that coupled with the development of a dual 250mb jet structure really argues for a wetter run than what was displayed ...

gfs_uv250_us_16.png


gfs_ir_us_15.png
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Seems like we heard this a little over a week ago.... hmm.
 
Stormsfury said:
Well the GFS really is a head scratcher now...

At hr84, SIM IR Satellite lights up, and that coupled with the development of a dual 250mb jet structure really argues for a wetter run than what was displayed ...

gfs_uv250_us_16.png


gfs_ir_us_15.png
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Makes you wonder if moisture would actually be more than what the 12z gfs showed and not go poof so fast.
 
Looking at the IR satellite, it still looks as healthy as it was earlier after precip goes poof...that's strange.
 
Stormsfury said:
Well the GFS really is a head scratcher now...

At hr84, SIM IR Satellite lights up, and that coupled with the development of a dual 250mb jet structure really argues for a wetter run than what was displayed ...

gfs_uv250_us_16.png


gfs_ir_us_15.png
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I fully agree! That tells me there should be a decent amount of precip over AL and GA and into the Carolinas
 
There's not a lot of overwhelming dry air at the SFC either except Eastern NC in a stripe where DPs are around 10 to 15. In CHS it's 19DP, and goes up to 30 in a 6hr frame. Also has inland coastal SC with blips and a stripe of sub 32 while Midlands are 5° warmer...something is falling but not reaching the SFC.
 
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