Btownheel
Member
Part of me would be tickled watching the Delmarva guys on MA Forum completely melt if this verifies. They had a ball dancing on our grave after all!
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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Part of me would be tickled watching the Delmarva guys on MA Forum completely melt if this verifies. They had a ball dancing on our grave after all!
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NCSNOW
Member
i've thought about this because eventually you want to see proof of concept that stuff upstream has an effect. In my mind, I do think the consensus model has drifted towards less alignment with the low and the shortwave today. I think it favors a slightly flatter system. hopefully some better regarded models begin reflecting this some
SimeonNC
Member
I'm confident in CAD being strong enough to where at least the northern midlands(Winnsboro, Chapin, ect.) get in on the ZR.
I agree with you, Brad is a good forecaster, and I'm just saying that I disagree with him, as I said I'm not trying to met bash.
The 18z GFS is continuing the trend of leaving the Baja Low back there little by little each run. I now no longer know if that's a good thing anymore, though. Heights perhaps a little lower out ahead of it, too, but then the same was true for the 18z ICON before it cut. The western wave looks like it's coming in a little further west.
beanskip
Member
18z GFS going the wrong direction at 500mb through 51 (which, the way things are going, will probably mean it actually gets better downstream, lol).
The only trend right now is that any good trends early on aren't doing whole lot for us in this board.
One thing that remains rock solid across all guidance is the monster 1050+ HP into what I call the sweet spot, N. Dakota/Minnesota.
beanskip
Member
Through 54, the main feature of the 18z GFS is how similar it is to the 12z run.
NCSNOW
Member
Carbon copy of itself at the surface compared to 12z
heading towards Omaha. Ale yeh. 
Yes. I should have been more specific. I'm Ga. centric, lol
NCSNOW
Member
In all my years on the wx boards, I don't ever remember a storm changing back to the east, once the storm cut west of the apps on the models,. I'm curious if anyone can think of a time.? I've seen hybrids jump to OBX several times, but not stay east and jump to say, MYR. I'm sure there was a time in the past 20 years but, I can't think of one.
I wasn't sure where to post this. Sorry if it needs to be in the banter.
I wasn't sure where to post this. Sorry if it needs to be in the banter.
foothillscrewzone
Member
Main difference in my novice eyes is the GFS is bringing the arctic highs down further south pushing the initial precip further south.
chapelhillwx
Member
The GFS was the furthest south outlier (in terms of winter impacts) so we may see the others tick south while the GFS ticks north, building a consensus.
Man.. we just aren't good at this Winter weather thing.
Mpirone12
Member
If you would show any options that we’ve seen the past week on any other given day we’d all take it to the bank. I understand wanting to maximize with snow but this is a hell of a winter storm regardless. Lets enjoy the ride
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Crow
Member
Looks flatter to me at hr 84
Fountainguy97
Member
GFS literally looked worse to start at 500mb but now much better with northern slug further east lol.
This is the most doomsday ice setup of any run yet.
This is the most doomsday ice setup of any run yet.
This is the 12z, but I think for our area I would prefer blocking in the yellow zone as opposed to where it actually is (and it is moving out). But someone with all the analogs can check me.
SnowmasterATL
Member
The ICE line is trending more north...south metro ATL might not see less ZR rain. It is still signifiicant but NE ATL and Northward might get hit the hardest!
HailCore
Member
Secondary wave showing up on GFS looks a lot flatter than the last few runs and delivers more backside snow further south 
Hope the GFS is onto something with this backside action showing up.
NCHighCountryWX
Member
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National Weather Service GSP Official Briefing 342pm
I was on the 400pm meeting... a good presentation.
Next briefing will be early Thursday
NWS GSP Winter Storm Briefing
I was on the 400pm meeting... a good presentation.
Next briefing will be early Thursday
NWS GSP Winter Storm Briefing
accu35
Member
Looks better on the back side
1037 High planted in Virginia and we still can’t snow? I give up.
I think some of you all have unrealistic expectations with this which is leading to some of the meltdowns and bittercasting. Yes, it’s true that it’s nigh impossible for this to become a 12-18” snowstorm for those of us in NC/SC/GA but the table is still set for a sizable front end thump if the cards are aligned right and then a transition to tons of ice pellets and freezing rain (I understand feelings are mixed on this P-type, and for good reason). The GFS is still showing this for some. A lot of major winter storms are like this in our area - snow to ice pellets to freezing rain.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Matches what B-Rad and NwS have stuck with ….I-40 and North. But looks like a jumbled weak piece of garbage now…. No way we get to biblical QPF with this image
Hold on now….. Back end Snow coming through just saw that
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The GFS would be an amazing winter storm. But let's face it, even if we buy it being flatter than the Euro, it is most likely out to lunch with it's depiction of a 3 day winter storm. There's just no way.
accu35
Member
wondering if that backside can deepen more and create a gulf low?
Downeastnc
Member
This is with still a solid 12-18 hrs to go in the Carolinas.....
Not sure what to say. I have zero faith in the GFS but it’s been biblical ice the last few runs around Atlanta 
Still juicy. Would someone be kind enough to post the FRAM?
Packsox03
Member
That’s mostly sleet in NC
WxBlue
Meteorologist
It's literally the GFS against all other major models.
SnowNiner
Member
Not sure what to root for anymore for the nice front end. I'm guessing an earlier transfer to the coast? Super CAD/stronger? I don't know.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Man that would be an epic time of sledding if played out like the 18Z GFS just showed. 3 inches of snow, then 2 inches of sleet, then 4 more inches of snow.
That it is, but it’s several inches of it. We could be talking 3-6” of sleet alone which would be insane and shut things down for a long time. Topped with ice. Preceded by a little snow, perhaps? That’s a hell of a storm.