Yeah, that would a risk.
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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Yeah, that would a risk.
Yes, historically the Euro doesn’t handle CAD well, NAM usually does a good job
I would say the main issue is that the Euro holds back SW energy too much which is mostly what we are seeing. Once it comes back around, the CAD will be portrayed more accurately
packfan98
Moderator
Yes. However if the GFS doesn’t have the upper level features correct, it’s a moot point. We should have a clearer picture by tomorrow night.
Weather next made a small move southward with temps but within the envelope of its recent runs. It’s an ice mess in the Carolinas and imo this has looked like an ice mess since Sunday night. Those GFS runs are fun but likely unrealistic. Better hope for some sleet to work in if you’re in an area that’s staring down the barrel of a legit ice storm
What did show for ATL? ( this might be banter..sorry)
The two models that have historically handled CAD the worst?You mean the UK or the Euro? Two of the top performing models?
I guess the GFS could be more right.
View attachment 186842
rburrel2
Member
No the GFS is usually too warm and too quick to erode CAD's as well.
I think the issue is how amped the low becomes. The UK is the extreme and has the low push up into western Tennessee cause most on the board to rapidly warm up. The CAD actually stays strong for east App areas. But even here the (freezing)temps are 10 degrees warmer.
Google model has been the northern most model past couple of days and keeps ticking north. This thing needs to be taken seriously, it's led this all week.
Much less precip then other models for Raleigh.
Much less precip then other models for Raleigh.
BillyMurrayWx
Member
There was a system years ago that I remember being modeled consistently for a huge Ice Storm in the southeast for several days on all of the models and about 60 hours out the models shifted the track of the low hundreds of miles north and ended up being a rainmaker for many except for a few in the CAD areas.
Is this the most reliable model? I heard it was?
Forevertothee
Member
Agree. I think areas such as Greenwood, Abbeville, and Laurens counties (S of 85) are going to have the major issues with ice. For power, got to hope for more sleet than Freezing rain.
Yep, Mets will not jump ship with a couple of model runs. Although I was surprised Rah NWS still had snow here throughout the storm with possible mixing with ip/zr. Bigger surprise to me, no mention of Euro and it's trends in AFD, once again leaned heavily on NBM. Today's a big day for this one
Where is Myfrotho? I think that’s his handle. From Concord. He always has great insight
Not sure...its been the most north this week and hasn't budged.
He’s @NBAcentel now… just changed his username
blueheronNC
Member
Seems like it’s had the least wild shifts through all of this. Never had the heavy snow stripe through NC.
The simple answer is that it won’t. The physics will cause the low to do a miller b transfer much further south than what you see here. I would encourage anyone to go back to January 2022 and see some of the crazy things that models were doing with that CAD, our last major CAD storm. In all honesty I’m surprised that we haven’t seen the GFS try to do something like this already
rburrel2
Member
So you're going with damaging ice for Raleigh then? or are we not using weathernext surface temps?
I think he was honking the horn alittle about the EURO!
www.facebook.com
22K views · 202 reactions | Good morning! Winter storm watches have been issued just to our south and I expect those watches to be extended into at least parts of north Georgia later today. The winter weather threats will increase later on Saturday
Good morning! Winter storm watches have been issued just to our south and I expect those watches to be extended into at least parts of north Georgia later today. The winter weather threats will...
www.facebook.com
But even we just blend the GEFS/AIFSENS above then dang...it's lights out...
GEFS with a 2"+ mean right down I-85/40 in the SE with crippling ice
This is the Euro gradient from 00z on the tail end of the storm. Flashbacks of early 2000’s on steroids. Barring the miracle that we somehow lose this here in the next 12 hours, this is going to be one of the more angry wedge storms of our time I’m afraid. A clashing of heat (which is situated directly under the wedge), ample moisture and trapped funneling cold with roots out of the Arctic. This is going to be memorable for the wrong reasons for many posters on this board I’m afraid. My hope is that I am not one of them.
Temps support icing but my point is precip is much less with the amped runs and it's probably not picking up the miller b dry slot so could be lower.
Has anybody found NWS discussion on the latest model runs?
Noles1812
Member
Its the best right now
Brandon10
Member
12zs kicking off with HRRR. Guess we will see the new data?
NCWeatherNow
Member
2022 had a better track than this time around.
Brandon10
Member
If my memory serves, overrunning equals ice 9 out of 10 times in NC. We need more of a gulf low vs the sw to ne systems.
need to see changes at 12z or Id hang it up south of virginia.
need to see changes at 12z or Id hang it up south of virginia.
The track did end up being fine, but my point was that the globals then were not handling the strength of that CAD well at all and were continuing to try to plow the low right into it which didn’t happen.
Forevertothee
Member
NWS CAE (Columbia)
National Weather Service Columbia SC
746 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence continues in a potentially impactful winter storm
this weekend, with some small tweaks in the forecast thinking.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) The trend continues towards a potentially significant
winter storm this weekend.
- 2) After very cold start Wednesday, temps steadily moderate
through Friday along with some rain chances.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: The trend continues towards a potentially
significant winter storm this weekend.
Overview: The forecast thinking has not changed much for the weekend
system with potential for a highly impactful winter storm
continuing. The overall synoptic pattern is quite consistent across
all guidance with a deep digging trough off the NE CONUS,
strong confluence and an associated strong surface high in the
central- eastern CONUS, and an ejecting cutoff shortwave in the
SW CONUS. This patterns sets up a broad overrunning scenario as
the arctic high digs southeastward presenting an all-hazards
impactful winter storm potential for much of the southern and
eastern US, including GA and SC as strong cold air damming sets
up.
Trends and Forecast Challenges: While some disagreements continue,
guidance remains in above-typical agreement over the potential
impacts from this system given the 72-96 hour window, with historic
analogs and climatology concurring; this setup distinctly favors
mixed precip with snow-sleet-freezing rain-rain potential. A subtle
shift in some of the 18z guidance and more evident in much of the
00z guidance is a northerly shift in the axis of heaviest qpf,
thanks to a slightly more amplified flow and associated low pressure
development; this also pushes the surface edge of the CAD dome
north. This trend in guidance is seemingly driven by a very
subtle slowing of Pacific cutoff ejection and positioning of the
broad surface high; aircraft recon early Wednesday morning
should help improve this sampling, but not until the 12z
guidance. Thanks to this trend, the GEFS has steadily become
more and more of a cold- southerly outlier compared now with the
ECE, Canadian Ensemble, and AI suite being warmer- northerly.
As noted previously, shifts in the handling of both of the low
level cold air and the Pacific cutoff are expected as these are
two of the most notoriously difficult meteorological features
for guidance to handle. The current trends, and anticipating
typical model biases, reinforce the thinking that the I20
corridor will potentially lie along a steep gradient zone for
qpf and therefore potential winter impacts.
Potential Impacts: A range of impacts continues to be possible from
this system, ranging from a notable ice storm to a inconvenience-
nuisance event with a gradient of impacts across SC and eastern GA
looking more likely. A mix of precip-types is expected, but trends
over the last 24 hours suggest snow is less likely for central SC
and eastern GA. Confidence remains high that much of, if not the
entire, area will see at least some wintry weather from late
Saturday-Sunday, however specific geographic impacts remains unclear.
Based on the guidance trends, confidence is increasing that the I20
corridor will lie along the gradient of impacts; the probabilistic
WSSI for moderate impacts summarizes this well, with ~60-80%
chance north of I20 and then ~20-40% chance south of I20. While
details in the spatial impacts are still unclear, the high end
ceiling for this system remains, with notable ice storm potential
and lingering cold weather behind the system extending impacts
in time.
Summary: Guidance remains in fairly good agreement over much of this
forecast but subtle differences result in a range of impact
potential. Confidence is already fairly high that many areas of SC
and eastern GA will see at least some winter weather this weekend
but a gradient of impacts is likely geographically. Unlike many
southern winter events, the ceiling for this event is very high with
significant impact potential.
NWS GSP
Key message 3: A winter storm system is likely to impact the area this
weekend but details regarding precipitation amounts and type remain
uncertain. Confidence continues to increase that moderate overall
winter storm impacts could lead to hazardous travel and power
outages.
All eyes are looking at the potential weekend winter storm
forecasted to sweep across a wide swath of the south, from the
central CONUS to the Carolinas. Confidence continues to increase
that a storm system would likely impact the CWA Saturday and into
Sunday. The questions remaining are exactly what kind of
precipitation falls, quantity and how these p-types impact the area.
What we know at this point is there is high confidence of a strong
and cold air mass spilling into the central portion of the U.S. and
spreading eastward by Friday. Moisture in the south stretches ahead
of the frontal boundary, meaning wintry precipitation forms along
this boundary. Now, this is where the uncertainty remains as there
are many factors that will change and directly influence this system
for our area. Current guidance continues to trend at a wide swath of
p-types, including snow, ice, and sleet. Let`s talk snow first.
Current guidance from a variety of models are shifting snow further
to the north, meaning at this time, the higher totals could be over
the mountains and into parts of the NC Piedmont, along and north of
I-40. Probability for 12" of snow or higher is 30-40%. Depending on
where the transition zone sets up will highly influence this
potential for larger snow amounts.
Now for the less thrilling part of winter: sleet and ice potential.
At this time, this appears to be the primary p-type for areas south
of I-40, including Upstate SC, northeast Georgia and into the
southern portions of the NC Piedmont. Current trends are placing
more of the ice just to the south and sleet right in the middle,
affecting a larger chunk of the CWA. This doesn`t mean snow won`t
occur, but there is likely to be a transition from snow into the
mixed precip. Current model soundings show a weak snow profile for
Saturday before an elevated warm nose develops, indicating more of a
sleet event. However, ice probabilities are still 40-50% Saturday
night into Sunday. Though it`s too earlier for deterministic
amounts, current guidance shows a 50-60% chance for ice
accumulations of 0.25" or greater essentially southward from
the NC/SC stateline. The confidence is increasing that warning
criteria for ice and snow will be met this weekend. For this, a
Winter Storm Watch for the entire area is likely to be issued in
the coming forecast cycle.
Details will continue to be thoroughly looked over with each
forecast cycle leading up to this weekend, but preparation should
begin at this time. Regardless of the individual p-types, the
important thing to note is there will be plenty of QPF with this
storm. Wintry precip, whether it`s ice, sleet, or snow are going to
have widespread impacts from travel constraints, air travel
disruptions and power outages, especially in the locations where ice
occurs. Preparations should start being made for these impacts and
any disruptions to the power grid now.
How did ATL fair in that storm? I don't remember that one. I remember the (2) 2000 storm and 2004 when I was in college.
Sleet is main threat for Charlotte gradually changing to snow in the Triad….Remember the Xmas at least 10yrs or so ago? Was a white one for most of the day in Winston but rain in Salisbury/Concord until around dark when it changed to all snow???…. Any similarities to that storm?
rburrel2
Member
I took detailed model notes for that one on Surface temps, for each model cycle leading up to the event starting from 84hrs out.
The Rgem was by far the best with surface temps and really nailed it. The ukmet was easily the worst and average 4-5 degree's too warm on average. GFS was a little too warm, Euro did ok but was actually a little too cold early on.
billyweather
Member
Can you post some models that show this?
MichaelJ
Member
Whenever I see the EURO and UKMET with similar solutions, I have found they are hard to bet against. Yes they tend to erode CAD too fast but they also can pick up on the dreaded warm nose better than the GFS/Icon and that is what they are doing here. Surface temps will likely be predicted too high on them but the problem is the upper levels warming causing the ZR and IP to increase and snow to decrease in amount and area coverage. I am old so I remember a storm in W-S back in the early 80's and watching Paul Delagato explaining why we were getting IP instead of SN at 17 degrees. It never rose above that surface temp but the IP went on for hours it seemed.
The parent High has been nudging North now for several EURO runs and, even though it still remains pretty strong, it moved from NY up into Canada and that is never good for us regardless of the strength of the High. It is NOT just the millibars of the High but also the location of where it sits. Could things still make some changes, absolutely (and probably will) but I don't see them being major ones. I am still hoping Atlanta and Charlotte can miss out on the ZR because those metro areas have huge populations that could be dangerously affected by a lot of ZR
The parent High has been nudging North now for several EURO runs and, even though it still remains pretty strong, it moved from NY up into Canada and that is never good for us regardless of the strength of the High. It is NOT just the millibars of the High but also the location of where it sits. Could things still make some changes, absolutely (and probably will) but I don't see them being major ones. I am still hoping Atlanta and Charlotte can miss out on the ZR because those metro areas have huge populations that could be dangerously affected by a lot of ZR
Can’t recall an event at this range where we said the UK and CMC handled it well. So yeah, those agreeing with the Euro of being north I guess could give pause to see if Euro ticks back south today or tomorrow.
smast16
Member
Can someone correct me here, but we want more separation from the Baja low and the N trough correct? This forces the low to be neutral tilted with the trough, vs the Euro which almost looks to kick the low in front of it, allowing it come north?