NCHighCountryWX
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GSP has already removed accumulating snow from a lot of the grids. Pray your Rosary tonight for sleet and not freezing rain.
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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Stormsfury
Member
Just got word RECON is flying a mission onto the Baja Low.
I’ve learned over the years to look at soundings as opposed to that 540 line. They just give a more presentation
SnowmasterATL
Member
very sharp gradient between Atlanta and Newman if this is correct.
NWMSGuy
Member
LOL. Would be interesting to know what model. I have been personally following the EURO closely since Sunday. The 18Z run was awful. Going to see how this all unfolds.
Last thing I'll say (I think). I said yesterday that we will be making our biggest adjustments to this one over the next 8 to 10 model cycles, so into tomorrow night. The window for wholesale changes is short, but again, as I've said, the tiny changes inside D4 can make big differences for folks near the transition lines. If you want to get this thing much further south, tomorrow is probably the day to get it done.
Guys we don’t need to focus on one model and one run. This is going to keep changing and won’t be locked in until Thursday. That’s 2 more days!!
Probably get see that data input from it on the models on 12z tomorrow.
Interesting. I know the dropsonde flights were scheduled for tomorrow for data that would be ingested for the 00z tomorrow night. I had assumed that was gonna be our biggest “accuracy jump” but idk.
Tokenfreak
Member
I wonder if this new data was ingested in the 18z or will be in 0z or later runs…
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Some great posts in here, just my .02. The trend today across most models has been to bring in the Baja low more into the jet which we have seen pushes up the heights over the East resulting in the northward push of the wintry precip. In past systems we have seen big changes in this feature, even up till go time. This could change drastically, maybe multiple times, between now and Friday evening. I don't personally like the trends today but I bet we don't have the final solution by any stretch, and there could still be big changes for our areas. Gonna still be a lot to learn here and many of us will still see something wintry. Of course we all want the big dog snow and somebody will actually get one.
ChattaVOL
Member
Google AI model has always been one of the more amped models and has the heaviest precip axis well up into northern VA but still temps are well below freezing all weekend for central NC.
One good news is much less precip with more amped. Maybe we get dry slotted.
One good news is much less precip with more amped. Maybe we get dry slotted.
I wouldn't panic yet for sure...however.........this could be where the Baja low actually is a BAD thing.....As others have said, it might end up "phasing" with the energy coming down from Canada. Timing is always everything and this is a difficult forecast for sure.
Something like this is normal, last weekend was a head scratcher
ChattaVOL
Member
end of the HRRR
Ouch. Thats entirely a cold rain for Atlanta.
For me this reinforces a couple of ideas:
1. It's pretty pointless looking for details in any of these models or ensemble suites more than 3 days out. The most you can really hope for, outside of the rare anomaly, is to define whether or not there actually is a threat and a general area foe the threat.
2. Ensemble probabilities are virtually useless 5 days out.
3. There's almost always going to be a north trend.
I'm not saying the 18z Euro has hit it on the nose, but the trends are clear. And they fit with historical precedence.
Highly anomalous situations that buck the trend are rare. This seemed like one of them. But at least right now, it's behaving normally.
It's going to be a big winter storm for a lot of us. But a January 1988 style event is quickly seeming more and more out of reach. Hopefully, temps are either cold enough to support a lot of IP or the absurd and highly improbable 3" QPF bomb totals continue to trend down in order to avoid too much ZR.
I won't beat a dead horse any longer, but we should have known.
1. It's pretty pointless looking for details in any of these models or ensemble suites more than 3 days out. The most you can really hope for, outside of the rare anomaly, is to define whether or not there actually is a threat and a general area foe the threat.
2. Ensemble probabilities are virtually useless 5 days out.
3. There's almost always going to be a north trend.
I'm not saying the 18z Euro has hit it on the nose, but the trends are clear. And they fit with historical precedence.
Highly anomalous situations that buck the trend are rare. This seemed like one of them. But at least right now, it's behaving normally.
It's going to be a big winter storm for a lot of us. But a January 1988 style event is quickly seeming more and more out of reach. Hopefully, temps are either cold enough to support a lot of IP or the absurd and highly improbable 3" QPF bomb totals continue to trend down in order to avoid too much ZR.
I won't beat a dead horse any longer, but we should have known.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I posted this tweet about 3 years ago and I think it's relevant to what you're asking here. This kind of thing can happen when you get giant arctic air masses like this so close to the Rockies.
SWVAwxfan
Member
When in doubt, zoom out..AI (
)trend is still for a deep traditional Carolina wedge. You can always ride this one out the rest of the way with tour local Met if it all becomes too much to stomach.
)trend is still for a deep traditional Carolina wedge. You can always ride this one out the rest of the way with tour local Met if it all becomes too much to stomach.So what are the implications to this storm
ducketta27
Member
Sounds like it is what he said… GFS caves to Euro, pulls NW due to shallow cold air
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wow
Member
FWIW, the NAM is slowing down the Baja low and a little weaker
I suppose this implies GFS moves towards Euro most likely, which isn't very surprising. Hope the "Helene-weakened trees" theory is not too true imby.
It’s great in terms of direct impacts, but it greatly further erodes public trust in the ATL area. Wish we got this right sooner is all.
This is probably right at the fringe of the range I would consider the NAM's output at all potentially helpful (48-60 hours, tops)
CAD is one thing that overperforms more times than not.When in doubt, zoom out..AI (
Just hard to trust the NAM after last weekend. It was horrible.
ducketta27
Member
Only in NC. It’s incredibly unpredictable in SC. Sometimes it reaches SW GA… and other times it doesn’t cross the nc/SC line
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Just out of curiosity, do you think the NAM is useful with H5 features and high pressure locations/strength beyond 60 hours?
not really tbh i'm kinda embarrassed for having it open on weatherbell right now. but again i am newer to this than the others on here so it may have some use
NWG_WX14
Member
NAM looks to have more separation and weaker at 54
beanskip
Member
NAM 850 temps a bit warmer vs. 12z run, except for in Va., at 51 hours. Wouldn't put much stock in it other than the 18z trend.
Fair enough. I’ve always heard differing opinions on it. Some have said to never trust its surface reflection that far out but that the H5 charts can be useful. Others don’t even look at it past 48 hrs
Brent
Member
I have no words at TWC's forecast 
NCHighCountryWX
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Excellent discussion and analysis from Ryan Maue
open.substack.com
January 20, 2026 Tuesday Ice Storm Forecast
Collision of brutal Arctic air with subtropical moisture plume will fuel a widespread ice storm
open.substack.com