olhausen
Member
Yeah I’d rather this thing shift to all rain over a good 3 plus inch snow with ZR on top of it. I want no part of a bad ZR storm.
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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
ducketta27
Member
Thanks for sharing. It appears that the Euro may be onto something here. Cold high over-modeled or displaced a bit further north even. SE ridge, ridging... We may begin seeing GFS fold here too... As we get closer in time, models get a better idea of the strength of that WAA
I never liked anything about that Montana piece dropping in. For southern sliders, just leave the southern wave alone and let it do its thang
The gfs was already moving this way. Just not a drastic jump.
Brandon10
Member
Too good to be true for NC. Seems like recent years we always see a great storm then lose the snow signature a few days ahead. What stinks is the SER has constantly been knockes down this year except now when we need it to disappear.
Packsox03
Member
I don't remember a storm when I was on the MA AmericanWx forum that DIDN'T have people cliff jumping at 3-5 days out. Never seen a storm that me in the big snows 5-7 days out and just lock onto it with no adjustment at any point
tractor girl
Member
If it usually is in these situations, why aren't models reflecting that 5-6-7 days out? Esp AI models? If it's ------- common sense that everyone knows, why are models showing the opposite this far out? Infuriating haha
Well, we can't say there weren't any signs. I don't recall this being posted, and for good reason.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Oh yeah that’s not great
blueheronNC
Member
The 500mb height contours from Iowa through Pennsylvania taking on a convex shape is extremely troubling
The thing is, we are still going to get some type of winter weather across the board. If not snow, sleet/ice are more impactful, so the storm is still an issue regardless.
this is accurate and a triple phase is such a low probability that I wouldn't worry too much about it.
tractor girl
Member
Across the board? maybe VA/NC/TN? If our low phases and high recedes at a good clip, the actual southern most states will see cold rain
NCSNOW
Member
It was sref morning of. Avn, gfs never caught till mid day of storm. They all missed. Shortwave showed up and dropped right into stalled artic boundary across gulf coast. All we had back then was tv and radio wx mainly. Massive out of nowhere suprise. Discovered day it started
Cad Wedge NC
Member
That's what I have been trying to say..... Do we really believe that this is going to be that amped? Triple phase.... really? I say that the next run has got to come back to reality.
Good grief, complain, melt down, argue in banter. Thanks
jamesmbryanjr1
Member
Speaking in absolutes when it comes to weather is idiotic.
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Ok. Got some supper then sat down and looked at 18z EURO in detail and let me just say… everyone take a deep breath and step back from the cliff. A couple things of not.
1. Was it a bad run? Yes absolutely and it still brought a decent front end thump of snow to a lot of folks and would probably be more so on short range models.
2. The EURO simply does not differentiate between ZR and IP well on its surface reflection. Was more of that ZR than I would like to see? Yes, but a lot of what was showing as ZR was still borderline sleet/snow based on soundings.
3. The High pressures are still modeled in almost the perfect spots and are still very strong. Yes I do expect them to be a bit weaker than modeled but a 1038 over Pennsylvania is still a strong, well placed HP.
4. Perhaps most importantly, that run showed a triple phaser which just simply a very rare occurrence.
Now what to watch for this evening… the first thing I’m looking at is on the NAM when it runs is how strong is that HP as it’s dropping out of Canada? If it’s showing 1050+ then there’s still a decent chance that a 1040+ moves into position over the weekend. Then I’m looking at 2m temps from other models. That EURO run was the first one really since we started tracking this that has seen a jump up in 2m temps. Everything else today was still as cold if not colder than prior runs. This despite the fact that globals have always had trouble with the strength of CAD
1. Was it a bad run? Yes absolutely and it still brought a decent front end thump of snow to a lot of folks and would probably be more so on short range models.
2. The EURO simply does not differentiate between ZR and IP well on its surface reflection. Was more of that ZR than I would like to see? Yes, but a lot of what was showing as ZR was still borderline sleet/snow based on soundings.
3. The High pressures are still modeled in almost the perfect spots and are still very strong. Yes I do expect them to be a bit weaker than modeled but a 1038 over Pennsylvania is still a strong, well placed HP.
4. Perhaps most importantly, that run showed a triple phaser which just simply a very rare occurrence.
Now what to watch for this evening… the first thing I’m looking at is on the NAM when it runs is how strong is that HP as it’s dropping out of Canada? If it’s showing 1050+ then there’s still a decent chance that a 1040+ moves into position over the weekend. Then I’m looking at 2m temps from other models. That EURO run was the first one really since we started tracking this that has seen a jump up in 2m temps. Everything else today was still as cold if not colder than prior runs. This despite the fact that globals have always had trouble with the strength of CAD
In spite of the Euro run, Charlotte gets 2 inches of precip with temperatures below freezing the full storm. Don't know if that's ever happened.
Feb 1969: 1.38
Feb 1979: 1.30
Jan 1988: 1.04
Jan 1996: 1.05
Dec 2002: 1.14
Feb 2004: 0.96
Feb 2014: 1.73
At 1pm Saturday as the precip is moving in, Charlotte surface temperature is 25 with a dewpoint of 1 (Greensboro is 20 / -11). Huge winter storm if the damming and cold temperatures hold (I think it will for the most part)
Feb 1969: 1.38
Feb 1979: 1.30
Jan 1988: 1.04
Jan 1996: 1.05
Dec 2002: 1.14
Feb 2004: 0.96
Feb 2014: 1.73
At 1pm Saturday as the precip is moving in, Charlotte surface temperature is 25 with a dewpoint of 1 (Greensboro is 20 / -11). Huge winter storm if the damming and cold temperatures hold (I think it will for the most part)
iGRXY
Member
This alone should tell you that the EURO even with a big phaser isn't going as far north as it showed. It's just not with this much low level cold air feed.
John1122
Member
Look at it this way, the Euro has not showed a triple phaser for 15 runs in a row, and they occur about twice a decade on average.
Odds are it doesn't maintain the triple phase look over the next 24 hours. If it misses, it goes back to the monster runs from the last several days.
Odds are it doesn't maintain the triple phase look over the next 24 hours. If it misses, it goes back to the monster runs from the last several days.
LongRanger
Member
So you don't think that HP could have been overdone and it ends up being much weaker?
If anything the 18z run was probably a extreme outlier and will come back to its senses over time once it realizes the other models are running cold if not colder. Especially with the possible strength and position of the high to our north. And hurricane hunters data will be key as well. Just observing no actual insight
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Stormlover
Member
TWC says they are using a hybrid model and have two feet possible into Mississippi 
iGRXY
Member
I mean the HP has came down to earth some. We had upper 1040's sitting over the northeast in prior runs. It's around 1040 now which is much more believable.
SandySpringswx
Member
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Just saw 4-6 inches of snow in ATL for Saturday night Sunday early AM on my MSN feed. Not sure where they're getting their info.
tractor girl
Member
Nothing I said was absolute. I outlined a conditional outcome based on phasing and high retreat, which is exactly how model based forecasting works.
If guidance continues to show the Canadian high pulling back and weakening while the Baja low ejects early and phases, a likely - not guaranteed - outcome is that the southern tier states trend toward mostly cold rain.
Chattownsnow
Member
This mess is a problem. Especially the S/W Over Montana. The 0Z and 6Z yesterday had it westward like this as well and had a similar, yet less extreme solution. They have to quit holding hands as they go across the country or we get what we saw. Higher resolution models are picking this up. FWIW the 18z euro has this interacting and furthest west of all the models right now it seems.
I’ll let y'all know when I think my power is safe. I’m just not quite there yet but a decent move in the right direction 
jamesmbryanjr1
Member
There’s the key. “Likely not guaranteed” thanks for updating.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Ahh yep that seems to be one of the big problems here. I wish I would have saw this earlier, I am really glad you pointed this out.
This trough digging more scoops up the Baja Low and pumps the SE ridge ahead out of it. That leads to things being warmer and shifted north downstream.
Hopefully for the 40 corridor crew, this trend stops because we may end up with more ice if it doesn’t
iGRXY
Member
IMO the 18Z Euro is the worst case scenario. It's ZR depiction is a legit ZR look. The 850's are roasting, the 700's are warm, and the 925's are not nearly as cold. This FRAM estimate is scary. The surface temps are still in the mid to upper 20's across the upstate even with it's unrealistic surface depiction of driving the surface low too far north. 0.75"-1" accrual would absolutely be legit here in the upstate.
Zooming out some on the EPS/Euro trend:
The Euro has been moving that Baja low further back until 18z got it more involved. Could be a one run blip, could be the start of a return trend. EPS does not include the 18z, but it made a similar move to the OP euro, while also having a similar longer-term trend. Let's look at the AIFS as well, at a couple different time frames:
First (almost) the same frame as the above euro and EPS GIFs. If anything heights out east have been ticking lower. Sfc high generally a bit stronger, but that's probably semantics. Baja low generally held back more than before. The problem arises a few frames later where that little northern stream elbow in the northwest digs further southwest and infaltes SER heights. Not much of a discernible move out east in this frame, other than perhaps a slightly stronger CAD and a bit better TPV cold press. Also, dragging lower heights further west.
18z's were worse on the more reliable guidance. Could be the start of a trend, could be a blip. Still looks like a very impactful winter storm in much of the Carolinas to me (I will admit I am not focused on other regions because I do not forecast for them or live there. I'm sorry if this offends you). Ptype corridors will be something that will be hemmed and hawed over until go time, as they always are with CAD events here. I'm not here to talk you off a ledge or tell you to cliff dive, just showing you what it looks like to me at the moment. You can decide if my opinion is worth your time! This has looked like an icy CAD mess since Sunday night.
As a final note I still think QPF is overdone. We'll see how that goes.
The Euro has been moving that Baja low further back until 18z got it more involved. Could be a one run blip, could be the start of a return trend. EPS does not include the 18z, but it made a similar move to the OP euro, while also having a similar longer-term trend. Let's look at the AIFS as well, at a couple different time frames:
First (almost) the same frame as the above euro and EPS GIFs. If anything heights out east have been ticking lower. Sfc high generally a bit stronger, but that's probably semantics. Baja low generally held back more than before. The problem arises a few frames later where that little northern stream elbow in the northwest digs further southwest and infaltes SER heights. Not much of a discernible move out east in this frame, other than perhaps a slightly stronger CAD and a bit better TPV cold press. Also, dragging lower heights further west.
18z's were worse on the more reliable guidance. Could be the start of a trend, could be a blip. Still looks like a very impactful winter storm in much of the Carolinas to me (I will admit I am not focused on other regions because I do not forecast for them or live there. I'm sorry if this offends you). Ptype corridors will be something that will be hemmed and hawed over until go time, as they always are with CAD events here. I'm not here to talk you off a ledge or tell you to cliff dive, just showing you what it looks like to me at the moment. You can decide if my opinion is worth your time! This has looked like an icy CAD mess since Sunday night.
As a final note I still think QPF is overdone. We'll see how that goes.
This happened with last threat even in medium range only to correct back to less digging up to verification.
Of all the models, to me, the Weathernext Ens has been the most consistent. I agree moreso with this precip shield max from TN to DC
Stormlover
Member
It started already
This trend is absolutely occurring and is bad news for ice moving further north than anticipated. We always knew there would be ice. We always knew there would be ptype questions for NC.
Is this something that can reverse? Seems like it could, given quality/quantity of obs increases soon. Could keep going and going and digging and digging too. I am too inexperienced to know and I am not sure experienced folks know.
Here's the long-term weathernext2 trend for the same time:
lexxnchloe
Member
Isnt the 540 line all the way to DC on that? Pretty much takes all the snow out of VA if so.