Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

[NCSNOW]

 

[Chattownsnow]

The latest GFS gives DC a foot.

I’m just referring to the ai models really. Just keeps moving south

 

[NCwx1992]

and still going........

 

[iGRXY]

UK absorbed it and it’s very amped

 

[Ross]

View attachment 186087

a little more backloaded than the 12z, maybe slightly more amped but nothing wild

 

[rburrel2]

Wedge trends on the gfs ai… lol.

 

[NCSNOW]

Ugh. Should have went to bed

 

[VegasEagle]

Anouther one

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Ugh. Should have went to bed

View attachment 186092

UKMET has looked like this the entire time.

 

[jackendrickwx]

Feels like moves closer to a consensus. Precip onset in the mid south/MS valley is under 100 hours out. GFS and Euro very similar at H5 right now, which probably means the euro will show a completely different solution at 0z just to give us a headache.

Still looks like a big time CAD mess to me locally.

 

[J.C.]

Writing is on the wall. This baby is amping up.
View attachment 186077

Yup, and getting much colder at 2m from prior runs, just like the Icon.

00z

12z

 

[wow]

UKMET unchanged from the 12z run pretty much

 

[iGRXY]

UK doesn’t handle the BL temps well at all. Even the CMC which absorbs the Baja low is in line from a surface standpoint. UK is an outlier to me

 

[bouncycorn]

Wedge trends on the gfs ai… lol.

View attachment 186089

got 2m temp trend?

 

[iGRXY]

Agreed. Impressive how it's been leading the way right under our noses and now everything shifting to it!

Not really it’s surface depiction is not accurate

 

[JP152]

Ahhh yes the trusty UKMET. Nevermind the other 4-5 models that have this thing southern bound


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GFS trended North.

 

[Ross]

ukmet has severe in augusta and ice in charlotte. which, ok. but personally i don't think the wedge will act like that

 

[NCSNOW]

UKMET has looked like this the entire time.

Correct. Not sweating it. Canadian has looked like garbage every run since onset as well. Euro familia can hold tight tonight we all still good.

 

[iGRXY]

got 2m temp trend?

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

The trend is in fellas. Players are on the field and the fly has landed in the ointment. The Baja wave is probably coming. Make it work anyway

 

[Pilotwx]

Ratios will be higher than 10:1

 

[NCwx1992]

GFS trended North.

no, not really. the precip field just expanded quite a bit

 

[griteater]

Ugh. Should have went to bed

View attachment 186092

We’re really close to having an upper echelon event, but it sure looks like it’s going to be mighty tough to get this to stay suppressed in the Jan ‘88 mold. Hoping for bigger trends south next couple days, but not counting on it. Regardless, I’ll take a big nasty mixer in the face if I have to

 

[NBAcentel]

Something to watch is if we keep slowing, and slowing, you allow cold and dry air to seep in at all levels, and your initially slamming WAA/precip into confluence. Starting to get that front end thumper/finger look

 

[rburrel2]

got 2m temp trend?

 

[CLOTT01]

I am in south central Alabama and we haven’t had measurable snow in YEARS. That’s what I mean by Deep South lol not the gulf coast.

We had 3” in Birmingham last year but yea it’s still been too long


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[jackendrickwx]

QPF trend will be interesting to watch. I tend to think it could be a bit overdone at the moment in general but like I said earlier, anomalous gradient. Also, the sleet monster can eat those big GEFS totals for brunch.

 

[TigerSnow]

We’re really close to have an upper echelon event, but it sure looks like it’s going to be mighty tough to get this to stay suppressed in the Jan ‘88 mold. Hoping for bigger trends south next couple days, but not counting on it. Regardless, I’ll take a big nasty mixer in the face if I have to

Is it possible that we trend into a cold rain in most places? Is this a normal setup where we can have too much WAA and we lose it altogether?

 

[LukeBarrette]

Please nobody in here throw the towel because the UKMET and Canadian said cutter. Just two awful models guys cmon

 

[JWaterman]

Is it possible that we trend into a cold rain in most places? Is this a normal setup where we can have too much WAA and we lose it altogether?

Absolutely not. Everything will either be snow, ice or sleet. Unless you’re in deep deep GA/AL.


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[NCSNOW]

We’re really close to have an upper echelon event, but it sure looks like it’s going to be mighty tough to get this to stay suppressed in the Jan ‘88 mold. Hoping for bigger trends south next couple days, but not counting on it. Regardless, I’ll take a big nasty mixer in the face if I have to

I'm with you 100%. But i admit ive gotten greedy with this one. 2 things we dont have to fight is surface temps and qpf. Slam dunk wins. Its that mid level hangnail, thats gonna throw shade at us, up till last second.
Foot plus is right there for the taking.

 

[GaWx]

GEFS trend
View attachment 186085

View attachment 186090and still going........

The majority of this 0Z Pivotal GEFS “snowfall” in much of N GA/SC except far N is IP or ZR. Here’s one panel to show that:

 

[griteater]

Is it possible that we trend into a cold rain in most places? Is this a normal setup where we can have too much WAA and we lose it altogether?

I highly doubt that unless the timing is way off with the surface high moving in - like the surface high trends way slower and the Baja low kicks out way quicker. Unlikely IMO

 

[Packsox03]

AI came in a smidge south. Normal GFS came in north. Seems to be coming into better agreement. I’d feel pretty solid in NC esp west of US 1

 

[Edward Nygma]

Please nobody in here throw the towel because the UKMET and Canadian said cutter. Just two awful models guys cmon

The UKMET is not an awful model, especially not at 500mb, which is what ultimately is driving this event.

 

[LukeBarrette]

The majority of this 0Z GEFS “snowfall” in much of N GA/SC except far N is IP or ZR. Here’s one panel to show that:

View attachment 186100

Yeah I don’t want to see the pivotal weather GEFS maps ever again. They include sleet.
Weatherbell or COD Meteorology from now on, thanks!

 

[tractor girl]

Absolutely not. Everything will either be snow, ice or sleet. Unless you’re in deep deep GA/AL.


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So pretending this cuts and OH gets 12in SN. You mean to tell me Augusta and BHAM are still getting ice?

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

I'm sure the Mid Atlantic and NE weenies are throwing a party tonight. Here in squitter land, we toss.

 

[JWaterman]

So pretending this cuts and OH gets 12in SN. You mean to tell me Augusta and BHAM are still getting ice?

I’m more so going based on current (reliable) model trends. We all know anything is possible in extreme scenarios one way or another.


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[anc.py]

Yeah I don’t want to see the pivotal weather GEFS maps ever again. They include sleet.
Weatherbell or COD Meteorology from now on, thanks!View attachment 186101

The graphics that were shown by Brady were positive depth changes, which is supposed to be used to indicate general wintry precipitation.

Use Total Snowfall (10:1/Kuchera) if possible. They're the same as WeatherBell's.