That massive warm nose/warm air has shown up very pronounced on all the models in the last few runs over central Alabama. Will be interesting to see if that sticks and when or if we change over to frozen precip. Maybe we’d dodge the bad ice with it
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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
That massive warm nose/warm air has shown up very pronounced on all the models in the last few runs over central Alabama. Will be interesting to see if that sticks and when or if we change over to frozen precip. Maybe we’d dodge the bad ice with it
It’s a physics based event, I don’t see the ai models getting this right, I believe we see suppression for the next several runs with a n tick towards the short rangeIf banter I apologize….
Tim Buckley just posted this
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NCSNOW
Member
Still going ice across deep south, long fetch
tractor girl
Member
Will there truly be much of a NW trend if this high verifies as 1045+ hpa?
I just don’t see that much of a Warm Nose on this one. Especially with the arctic cold push on this setup.
ChattaVOL
Member
SnowmasterATL
Member
weakening trend?
all weather is physics based
No weaker high pressure meaning further north of the low pressure.
icon looked north. more progressive baja low, less robust cold press. don't shoot me only the messanger
This ICON run has 34mph wind gusts and 2.3" of QPF.. almost entirely freezing rain.
actually they built up during the run. Became stronger
JP152
Member
Great run for Virginia. looks more amped.
wow
Member
Same area as 12z but higher totals
Oh, my. The ICON very nearly loaded up for round two. It's shears out...mostly, but could very well have been another round only further south!
pleading the 5th here in respect for my friends down south
ducketta27
Member
In my opinion, ICON looks to make this a longer duration event for some.
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I too hope this isn’t considered banter. However, we have a lot of new members. This graph is a simple way to describe ZR (Ice) vs IP (Sleet) and SN (Snow) >> 
Note that there is for no good reason no explicit sleet shading on this Pivotal precip type map and that the “fzrz” (orange) goes all of the way to the snow virtually all of the way across. That’s not realistic based on history and it also isn’t intuitive. Thus, I can only conclude that “fzrz” is ZR in its S portion and sleet in its N portion.
My guess is this is too high here but anomalous gradients create anomalous things
SnowmasterATL
Member
Can break this down my area? I am alittle confused
wow
Member
Makeitsnow
Member
Just a ridiculous and devastating result. Hopefully its just playing catch up with more southward adjustments coming.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The ICON legitimately has 2 snow growth zones over central North Carolina as this system begins.
It’s so cold at the surface that your first snow growth layer is just above the ground, and the other one is at 600mb
This is truly wild
It’s so cold at the surface that your first snow growth layer is just above the ground, and the other one is at 600mb
This is truly wild
Icon has definitely come in with colder temps in the CAD areas vs prior runs.
00z Saturday afternoon
12z same time
00z Saturday afternoon
12z same time
The GFS is running we will see how that turns out. I don't see the ICON be right with winter systems a ton though so that gives me hope. If we start to lose the Euro and GFS then there might be an issue.
Well we need the rain, can't recharge the water table with it frozen
This was probably a banter post my bad
This was probably a banter post my bad
guys please don't get hung up on qpf from an operational model (especially the icon). it is vapor in the wind
Keep in mind that ~1” of this in ATL, for example, is from earlier waves of rain falling prior to when the cold arrives. But that does still leave just over 2” of qpf when <32.
At 84 hours, the NAM has pushed the Arctic front further south and east than the ICON. The ICON is faster, bringing out the Baja low. And man, yes, it's the NAM, but this 500mb looks biblical if the initial push of HP is as advertised.
Icon at its peak over the Carolinas. Gets some initial finger overrunning in the form of snow into the western Carolina’s between 6am-9am Saturday. Then the lights go out. 24+ hour event 
gfs pretty unchanged at hr 54 at 500mb. baja low held back west a touch but that could be considered noise imo
wow
Member
0z GFS similar to 18z so far at 63 hrs
Icon snow only