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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

Forevertothee said:
GSP not as enthused

As for the even further out potential system for the weekend, model
guidance keeps the high pressure parked over the central part of the
country and eventually makes its way into the area. There is much
discrepancy and uncertainty if the frontal boundary is able to make
anything of the weak moisture return. Friday and Saturday could see
a mix of precip but again, its too far out. There is a possibility
for a wintry mix as the transition zone and colder air move in. A
few of the individual models show a signal for snow, but there is
still much uncertainty. Any shift north or south of the potential
boundary could be the difference in rain, snow, or nothing at all.
And as this location has seen again and again, it`s all a matter of
whether or not the cold air can even make it in time. Will continue
to monitor as this system is going to change this far out.
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Would think this is just a bit of a "we see it, we're watching it" call from them at this range.

EPS and AIFS ENS trending Arctic High stronger in shorter range:

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-mslp-1768802400-1769104800-1769104800-20.gifecmwf-aifs-ensemble-avg-namer-mslp-1768802400-1769104800-1769104800-20.gif
 
jackendrickwx said:
Part of me wants to play the streak here with leaving it back or stringing it out some. AI models make me think that won't be the case. Can't rule it out yet! EPS trend thru 0z.

View attachment 185591
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This is the kind of pattern I used to dream about for southern slider type events, though this obviously looks a bit on the amped side of things. A giant polar vortex over Ontario & Quebec to supply brutally cold air into the CONUS & a SW US upper low to feed warm/moist air aloft to overrun this arctic air is usually how you get it done for the I-20 & I-40 crews


1768837180674.png
 
NWG_WX14 said:
If the tables were flipped I feel like a lot of people would not be buying the AI ops solutions near as much. Also it just seems like that strong of a high will not allow this to go but so far north .
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One of the things I’ve always heard Brad P mention is just difficult it is to see a LP trend north when you have a strong and dry Arctic airmass in place and getting reinforced.
 
wow said:
As I said.. not surprised. Looking good there. I still think Jan '88 is the top analog. That TPV is serious.
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Jan 88 is the Gold Standard for a lot us, especially the upstate. I would LOVE to have another one like it but of course those are rare for a reason. Always appreciate your input BTW.
 
Just deleted a bunch of post, don't like it, sorry. Not even gonna explain myself anymore but it's 4-5 days out some of y'all need to chill a little. Read more, be patient, try to learn and the arguing stuff take it to DMs or ignore each other. Thank you
 
This is incredible. I don’t remember a time a radar ever looking like this during a winter storm. But I haven’t been following weather super long. Just wow if this verifies
d8eabe2168e1e48bcdf0083fdcfb5283.jpg



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Ross said:
under the hood, on op gfs, baja low trended east
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Not what I exactly like to see, it
Bigedd09 said:
This is incredible. I don’t remember a time a radar ever looking like this during a winter storm. But I haven’t been following weather super long. Just wow if this verifies
d8eabe2168e1e48bcdf0083fdcfb5283.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Wouldn't count on it personally. That baja shifted well east on that run, not enough to cause too many problems, but it could be a start towards a more amped look.
 
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