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Misc General Banter Thread

jeremyt said:
Nothing is in stone, even 6 hours out. It's fluid and dynamic. A lot of local METs don't want to or like to make calls for winter weather because they have been burnt in the past and have had to hear about it. If you have the crystal ball to tell us what will happen next Sunday then please do. Thats not calling you out or trying to lambast you its just that no one can tell you anything in a ballpark this far out. Just watch the models and see the trends and try to deduct what you think will happen or listen to those more in the know. Living and dying by every deterministic model run is a easy way to go insane.
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I never put faith into any threat until
It’s close enough to show up on NAM. That’s 3.5 days if it’s there then it’s normally a threat that isn’t going to “nothing”. And no Ik you’re not calling out lol it’s just hilarious the bias is showing again it just so happens to be in our favor for once


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What a great overnight discussion folks! Special shoutout to the mets that post on here. We also have some of the most knowledgeable hobbyists here as well. Some of the stuff they can see and explain on a level that's understandable to the rest of us is simple amazing.

Let's keep it rolling today and hopefully fight off an ice storm. I know that for my backyard, we've had many times since the big 2002 storm where it's looked menacing, but sleet saved the day. I've also had sleet absolutely break my heart by ruining my big snow totals. Got to take the good with the bad!
 
packfan98 said:
What a great overnight discussion folks! Special shoutout to the mets that post on here. We also have some of the most knowledgeable hobbyists here as well. Some of the stuff they can see and explain on a level that's understandable to the rest of us is simple amazing.

Let's keep it rolling today and hopefully fight off an ice storm. I know that for my backyard, we've had many times since the big 2002 storm where it's looked menacing, but sleet saved the day. I've also had sleet absolutely break my heart by ruining my big snow totals. Got to take the good with the bad!
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Do you think we still have time for this system to change from being an ice storm and more of a snowstorm instead?
 
SegTindoPro said:
I don't wanna burst anyone's bubble but the last storm was showing good things before its downtrend so don't be surprised and sad if it happens
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I think there's always a phase where the globals will lose it too only to come back

In fact even King Euro famously did it in February 2021 here. I still remember the posts...

The most obvious winter storm ever I might add 😜

All I can say is watch the ensembles for signals. If they start downtrending then you got real issues
 
Brent said:
I think there's always a phase where the globals will lose it too only to come back

In fact even King Euro famously did it in February 2021 here. I still remember the posts...

The most obvious winter storm ever I might add 😜

All I can say is watch the ensembles for signals. If they start downtrending then you got real issues
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I just got a feeling everything looks way too aggressive right now and its giving me vibes of an downtrend happening soon...
 
SnowDoomer21 said:
I just got a feeling everything looks way too aggressive right now and its giving me vibes of an downtrend happening soon...
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I'd be weary of the snow maps for sure with the really high totals. Probably a lot of ice involved. It will always cut into totals

Especially the basic maps from tropical tidbits or whatever. There's a reason they are typically called clown maps

Look at the ensemble means when they are posted for a much more realistic idea
 
Crazy man. Clt area is tough. Snow missing to the south west north and east the last several years. Definitely preparing an ice storm. In wish casting for sleet or that the AI models aren’t great with extreme CAD storms.


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Arcc said:
And our wallet will sigh with relief. I mean even looking at the last frame of the 6z Euro AI which relaxes at 500mb, you can see what is about to happen again.

Insane period coming..
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Yep I'm not sure how much nao help we get in feb but the pacific low/trough should retrograde so we go through pna, epo, wpo cycle in the first half of Feb.
 
I guess I’m just being a Debbie downer or really skeptical but we’ve seen this before. We’ve seen signals like this and we end up with an apps cutter or WAA taking over and killing us. Maybe I’m just in protection mode but I will feel much more comfortable when the NAM thermals start showing up. When we say that can’t happen, I feel like the last few years it has happened and at least ruined the storms of my area.
 
I like the Google model. Looks somewhere in the middle of the road with the AI models and the OG GFS and Euro. Probably get a mixed bag of things in central NC with more snow the farther north you are to more ice the farther south you are. Pretty much a classic NC witnter storm.
 
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This my current point and click. Normally would love to see something like this but with this morning's trends I look for this to change pretty quickly to ice wording. I really don't want ice.
 

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WolfpackHomer91 said:
I never put faith into any threat until
It’s close enough to show up on NAM. That’s 3.5 days if it’s there then it’s normally a threat that isn’t going to “nothing”. And no Ik you’re not calling out lol it’s just hilarious the bias is showing again it just so happens to be in our favor for once


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AI products weren't far off 5 days out from last weekend's non-storm

AI products show this system moving north and away from the southeast

No amount of wishcasting (and my goodness there is a LOT of that happening in the game-day thread) is gonna change reality
 
TigerSnow said:
I guess I’m just being a Debbie downer or really skeptical but we’ve seen this before. We’ve seen signals like this and we end up with an apps cutter or WAA taking over and killing us. Maybe I’m just in protection mode but I will feel much more comfortable when the NAM thermals start showing up. When we say that can’t happen, I feel like the last few years it has happened and at least ruined the storms of my area.
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I was interested last night but saw the north trends in AI suites and that's pretty much game over for the southeast
Not doing this all over again esp after chasing so closely last week.
Back to work
 
Parker said:
You may be threatening to leave Hazel Green in a few days 😂

Don’t worry, your time will come
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You may be right i definitely didn’t move up here for no freaking ice storm i rather have rain then that bs. I’ve already heard some folks up here talking about ice skating on the roads i’m to southern for that lol😂
 
Snowking2.0 said:
I do know one thing i was going to drink beer and put some chicken and T bones steaks on the grill while it’s snowing but you can miss me with the ice storm bs i be damn if i ever barbecue in an ice storm yall other southern folks can have that but not me
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I had a friend of mine who went deer hunting during the crippling December 2002 ice storm that gave the KRDU area .75 inches of ice. He didn't stay in his stand too long when large tree limbs and the tops of some of the smaller trees started snapping.
 
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