• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Misc General Banter Thread

ready to move on
Can't imagine us having much in the way of severe this spring.. weather just seems so boring the last few years (apart from Helene and the dusting we had last year)
 
We’re about 5-6 weeks away from this

Lawn-with-white-crabapple-tree.jpg
 
tractor girl said:
ready to move on
Can't imagine us having much in the way of severe this spring.. weather just seems so boring the last few years (apart from Helene and the dusting we had last year)
Click to expand...

I'm a bit shocked you didn't see anything. I could see it if you were north of town since the returns were lighter. Folks were reporting snow west of you, it snowed at the airport and east of you... not sure how you were missed since the radar had no obvious holes in it or anything.

Weird stuff like that is frustrating. i was mystified this morning when it started raining pretty good and after about 10 minutes it just stopped for another 15 minutes..even though there was SOLID returns...like you couldn't get any more solid..near 30dbz. What i don't understand is if it had saturated to the point that there was moderate rain, why did it stop without even a hint of a let up or hole on radar? It makes no sense. It pissed me off too because every minute it rained mattered since it was necessary to cool the column/surface temps.

I sure hope we can get a real system in the coming days. It sure looks promising.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Mickey Mouse storm. I spent 2 weeks tracking moderate rain. I’m in shambles boys
Click to expand...
Heavy returns all well to our SE so we couldn't crash the column, way too warm here. I dunno man, never believed in this one but still feels like a skip job. We'll have to move SE to see snow anymore. I know some are excited by the period coming up by I don't have any hope for our area. Somehow everyone else will see something but we'll continue to miss due to track, delayed temps, down slopping, or some other monkey wrench. Guess I have become cynical.😄
 
Warm nosed a bit in North Augusta, SC. Never went all snow. Rain/snow mix the entire time. All snow North, South of us. Very strange we were in a warm pocket


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
ducketta27 said:
Warm nosed a bit in North Augusta, SC. Never went all snow. Rain/snow mix the entire time. All snow North, South of us. Very strange we were in a warm pocket


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Sounds like what happened here a few years ago.. had a winter storm warning seemed like a sure bet but temps were blazing. I always assumed the rates were lacking

Had a donut hole on radar 💀
 
weather nerd said:
7-10 days away.
7-10 days away.
7-10 days away.
7-10 days away.
7-10 days away.
7-10 days away.
7-10 days away.
7-10 days away.
Click to expand...
I just don’t look at the 7+ day stuff anymore, really. I didn’t start paying attention to today’s system until Thursday, so it not working out won’t hurt as much as if I’d been tracking it for over a week. I love tracking the storms close in, but I just can’t chase patterns, 300- hour storms, etc. anymore. I used to be able to. I remember as a kid I’d be getting all excited about 300-hour fantasy storms on the GFS. 💀
 
superjames1992 said:
I just don’t look at the 7+ day stuff anymore, really. I didn’t start paying attention to today’s system until Thursday, so it not working out won’t hurt as much as if I’d been tracking it for over a week. I love tracking the storms close in, but I just can’t chase patterns, 300- hour storms, etc. anymore. I used to be able to. I remember as a kid I’d be getting all excited about 300-hour fantasy storms on the GFS. 💀
Click to expand...
The excitement is in the chase. Kind of like playing the lottery where you dream about what you would do if you won. Or watching your favorite sports team and seeing if they can pull out a win. Ride the lightning!
 
BrickTamland said:
The excitement is in the chase. Kind of like playing the lottery where you dream about what you would do if you won. Or watching your favorite sports team and seeing if they can pull out a win. Ride the lightning!
Click to expand...
To an extent, but that’s more true for me in the final days, not 10 days away. But that’s just me!
 
superjames1992 said:
I just don’t look at the 7+ day stuff anymore, really. I didn’t start paying attention to today’s system until Thursday, so it not working out won’t hurt as much as if I’d been tracking it for over a week. I love tracking the storms close in, but I just can’t chase patterns, 300- hour storms, etc. anymore. I used to be able to. I remember as a kid I’d be getting all excited about 300-hour fantasy storms on the GFS. 💀
Click to expand...
Come back to us. You know you want to.IMG_3142.gif
 
I think my thing is….. how can it be 2026 and these models be this bad? 13hrs ago 2 models gave me 3-4” now it’s not even raining . Like I get swings 5-7 days out even 3-4 days out but it’s 2026 we need a solution once you get to 48hrs and in….. idc what the setup or how complicated, fix it we’ve got the money, this is actually a safety issue imo


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
I think my thing is….. how can it be 2026 and these models be this bad? 13hrs ago 2 models gave me 3-4” now it’s not even raining . Like I get swings 5-7 days out even 3-4 days out but it’s 2026 we need a solution once you get to 48hrs and in….. idc what the setup or how complicated, fix it we’ve got the money, this is actually a safety issue imo


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

the models are not bad.

we as the interpreters are bad.

when they run so many times a day, it's obvious they will have errors that compound.

we are supposed to identify if a model is right or wrong with actual knowledge, not use their output verbatim

climotology and historic weather is the #1 way, outside an anomaly and an anomaly will show up on all models, not just a few cherry picked ones
 
Someone is getting the freezer and snow at least. It’s says Fairbanks but I’m betting Florida panhandle …
0fee3a187cef30c22899bbc44094ef6a.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
weather nerd said:
the models are not bad.

we as the interpreters are bad.

when they run so many times a day, it's obvious they will have errors that compound.

we are supposed to identify if a model is right or wrong with actual knowledge, not use their output verbatim

climotology and historic weather is the #1 way, outside an anomaly and an anomaly will show up on all models, not just a few cherry picked ones
Click to expand...

No I agree….. I think it’s much better to just look at the Vort maps as yall did and scrap any surface output. Also go back to plotting HP / LP with pencil and paper


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
No I agree….. I think it’s much better to just look at the Vort maps as yall did and scrap any surface output. Also go back to plotting HP / LP with pencil and paper


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

these global models can have an ingest error at hour 6 across the globe and next thing you know, we have a completely wrong forecast especially at 500

its a crapshoot, really.

the thing is, these models like the euro are so much better than the gfs b/c of the data ingest and availability.
they've actually put euro's initialization data into the gfs and the gfs outperforms it at times

we need a better way to get, measure, and supply data. the models aren't all that different from a scientific standpoint, the traditional ones at least.

we should have weather data instrumentation on every single airplane in the air, and a way to access it for the models imo

@bouncycorn knows way more about it though
 
It reminds me of those huge 300+ hour gfs fantasy runs we’d get all the time years ago. I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a huge event modeled under 200 hours. I’m def interested.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top