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Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
What in the heck
Rufus!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I have a hard time seeing it in Raleigh with how this is setup
Jan 2017 says hi
rburrel2
Member
This is a ridiculous hard forecast for ga/sc/nc. That low level dry air punch is concerning for Georgia. No idea how realistic that is or what wins the battle between the low level dry air pushing in and the excellent forcing above it.
NC has boundary layer issues for the whole storm that models are all over the place with.
SC has a mix of both issues.
NC has boundary layer issues for the whole storm that models are all over the place with.
SC has a mix of both issues.
broken025
Member
Rookie. Happens to me all the time.
Brent
Member
Arkansas did overperform a little if that means anything haha
Mahomeless
Member
Southern GA has dry air aloft issues, but there is potential that it is overcome in about a 20 mile wide swath centered somewhere around Albany, GA.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
NAM seems to be trending less sharp with the trough, this could be an invalid point since we’re late in the game. Just noting an H5 trend.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The ARW is one more shift away from doing it in Atlanta. If you can get the precip there as the main wave moves in, this would be snow and would probably accumulate with temps below freezing
Jan 2017 the NAMs were showing sleet storm where globals were showing snow. We got a raging sleet storm. I remember that vividly.
This would be a first for nearly every model to be wrong within 24 hours and we see nothing but rain. But…if I had money I would bet on you being right. You’ve had some great calls over the years.
MichaelJ
Member
When looking at the NAM go with the higher resolution 3KM rather than the12KM as far as track is concerned. Don't think either one is correctly identifying where the frozen precip or the amount that will actually verify.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Well actually no, we got cold rain that occasionally mixed with sleet is what happened
Tsappfrog20
Member
Eric I don’t want to argue with you but Wake Forest still got an inch of snow from that storm it started as rain and then at the end changed over to snow
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We had some sleet melting on the truck here in Gatlinburg when we left for the pancake pantry. You could see the snow just up the side of leconte.
packfan98
Moderator
Yeah, I would think that if the moisture is there that around your area and west towards me there will be snow falling for a few hours that never really accumulates more than a dusting or so. Snow TV and White Rain. I’m here for it though.
Yes. I've been looking at the 12KM for days now and should have known to lean on the 3KM this close in.
rburrel2
Member
I’d trust the NAM low levels over the 18-24 hrrr. That said, a blend is probably good here. Accumulations will be tough for everywhere outside of FL/GA. But we will watch and hope for the best.
Any flakes and especially any coatings will go down as a win in SC/NC.
Any flakes and especially any coatings will go down as a win in SC/NC.
Makeitsnow
Member
I legit have no clue what dry air you are speaking of over central and south ga. North ga, north of Atlanta to athens....sure but south of there its saturated
It is ridiculous. The back edge will be very sharp so there is going to be some heart break.
iGRXY
Member
Amazing how topography works. The green and gray precip line is riding perfectly where the change in elevation quickly increases. That lightest green shade is exactly where you typically see the transition line between frozen and liquid for snow along 85.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I can also tell you for a fact that the HRRR, RAP, RRFS, and NDFD grids aren’t showing anything in central Wake County, even the normally cold RGEM is very borderline at best.
In Dec 2017 btw, the snow got to about RDU airport and stopped
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Uhh no I’m not, I was literally in downtown Raleigh for that event chief and I know what I saw. It was cold rain mixed with some sleet.
rburrel2
Member
icon finally getting a clue. Qpf bomb incoming.
Uh ok. Whatever you say. Maybe it only sleeted at my house.
There’s always significant differences between S and N Raleigh, E and W.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We saw a dusting of sleet with mostly cold rain at nc state. Stop
Makeitsnow
Member
Tokenfreak
Member
Looks like eastern SC near the coast may only get cold rain right now it seems. I hope I’m wrong though.
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Makeitsnow
Member
Becoming really apparent now that central and south ga are going to get a legit major snowfall
What are we arguing about? I said show me a time where the globals and NAMs were showing snow for central NC at 24 hours out and we got all rain. Jan 2017 isn’t it. Clearly central NC had accumulating snow, this is from your website. You are such a child sometimes. Let it go…you lost this discussion. It happens.
And I agreed with you…you will probably be right about tomorrow. I pay you a compliment and you act like this.
What are we arguing about? I said show me a time where the globals and NAMs were showing snow for central NC at 24 hours out and we got all rain. Jan 2017 isn’t it. Clearly central NC had accumulating snow, this is from your website. You are such a child sometimes. Let it go…you lost this discussion. It happens.
And I agreed with you…you will probably be right about tomorrow. I pay you a compliment and you act like this.
View attachment 184589
Can you two please take this elsewhere?
Stormsfury
Member
Warm bubble. Charleston has warmed up from 33 to 47 from 8am to 9am. (Forecast to reach the low to even mid 60s today). Possible "mesolow" kink in the Midlands, doubling down on cold air delay and thermal cold crash. Moisture and cold will have to arrive quicker or pretty much won't have time to change over.
Again, hard to argue against 3k NAM thermals. I know we won't get these accums but hard to see it being so off with thermals that we don't end with a decent changeover.
Stormsfury
Member
Guidance has been insistent and it's a combo of absolute perfect timing for that region.
Tokenfreak
Member
Yeah unfortunately I agree with everything you said. We can hope for the best but it’s not likely we see much in the Lowcountry. Maybe we will get the next one. Thanks for your details about it.
I loved that storm. Got over 4” of sleet. But I’m 20 miles north of Raleigh.
Seeing this map living 5 minutes from Athens pains me very very close to the green edge
iGRXY
Member
If you’re in the upstate and the eastern escarpment this tells me we probably should see an even more expansive precip shield than even what the nam is showing. That’s some serious WAA FGEN driven stuff along the eastern escarpment and points south
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
What are we arguing about? I said show me a time where the globals and NAMs were showing snow for central NC at 24 hours out and we got all rain. Jan 2017 isn’t it. Clearly central NC had accumulating snow, this is from your website. You are such a child sometimes. Let it go…you lost this discussion. It happens.
And I agreed with you…you will probably be right about tomorrow. I pay you a compliment and you act like this.
View attachment 184589
Central Wake county got mostly rain out of that event, we had more than enough QPF to support a few inches of sleet but that didn’t obviously happen, all the snow/ip totals were below 1”. The airport was closer to the
line but that’s almost always the caseHere’s the ZR map btw, proving my point: we spent a lot of QPF on rain and ZR, that mixed with sleet, The airport got a third of the freezing rain we had in downtown Raleigh.
