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Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat

SNOWMANN said:
Don't know if this is the thread to post but I've got snow in Morganton someone wake CR up it's coming down good in town atm. Roads are white North of town on 181. Started as sleet at 4am. I've been cruising around checking road conditions.
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RC might wake up to 6” 💀 IMG_7620.gif
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Is there at least enough on the ground for @Rain Cold to build a snow fort when he wakes up?
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Lol I wish. But just a mile North of town it was 31° and the roads where turning white in shaded areas. Guess areas just along the escarpment had dews low enough to wet bulb down. I don't think we see snow tomorrow so this was a nice surprise. Now it's your turn jimmy.
 
Very rate dependent. Back to sleet now stupid warm nose. I got two hours of snow/sleet this morning been riding around since 3am. Don't you just love this hobby. Nice trends over night though. Maybe the Piedmont of NC Upstate SC can get in on some fun tomorrow morning. Good Luck!
 
Webberweather53 said:
Global models are typically going to be behind the curve when it comes to these sorts of events that involve isentropic upglide, mid level warm advection, and last second NW trends. Just beware of that
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Looks like you nailed this one. When are you going to post an accumulation map?
 
There’s still another 18-36 hours for this to continue to go northwest. Each NAM runs moves the precip shield back NW another 10-20 miles. I’m in the solid 1-2” range right now. Very easily could get into a 1-4” lollipop across the Piedmont and upstate IF we keep this up. Those areas are going to have the best chance of having the cold air available. Just need the heavier returns
 
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Another western shift


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I honestly highly doubt it’s going to get cold enough in the Triangle area for snow here.

When your surface temps are starting out in the low-mid 40s and you’re hoping for cold advection midday to save you, for a fast-moving system like this that doesn’t have a true cold source, it’s a recipe for disaster.
 
The NWS in Raliegh is calling for this storm ending as wet snow with a coating on elevated surfaces at most. If we just had a high pressure over New England to feed more cold air into this then things would be golden. Cold air chasing precipitation doesn't work as well as having an established cold air source in place before a storm comes. I wish the areas to the south and west where the cold will be in place well and hope they put numbers on the snow scoreboard. The period from the 25th to the end of the month looks realistically like our best shot for winter weather in the NC Eastern Piedmont.
 
One annoying thing for the upstate. We have a thermal profile conducive for snow, even on Saturday night, but we would need 1/10th of liquid or so to adequately cool the boundary layer I think. I think we probably start out as light rain and quickly flip to snow, but we’ll have to slog down from 40 to 32 at the surface.

As such, if we only get .10-.15 and it comes late Saturday night, our odds of accumulations aren’t good.

We will need heavy rates quickly Saturday night that adds up to .2-.3 liquid, or additional light precip Sunday morning to have any chance of sticking snow. Models are split on whether or not we get Sunday morning-ish precip. A lot of these bumps in qpf are coming from that initial band that develops Saturday night.(which will be iffy with the boundary layer)
 
KyloG said:
Meatiest AI GFS run

View attachment 184543
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For carolina folks, I find it interesting to see a bit of a dry slot here just to the east of the triangle. It is definitely a weak low, but all of the models are still showing some deepening as the Atlantic cyclone forms, to later push NW to give New England some snow. As the low starts getting its act together, expect more frontogenic forcing along that baroclinic zone. This will create more dynamics to create an area or bright banding somewhere in west-central NC. I think this is our best chance here to see some good snow for at least a few hours on Sunday as the trough swings through
 
weather bubba said:
The NWS in Raliegh is calling for this storm ending as wet snow with a coating on elevated surfaces at most. If we just had a high pressure over New England to feed more cold air into this then things would be golden. Cold air chasing precipitation doesn't work as well as having an established cold air source in place before a storm comes. I wish the areas to the south and west where the cold will be in place well and hope they put numbers on the snow scoreboard. The period from the 25th to the end of the month looks realistically like our best shot for winter weather in the NC Eastern Piedmont.
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Yeah I think we're cooked, I have doubts I'll even see a flake mix in now this far east. Good luck to others S and W of us
 
Webberweather53 said:
I honestly highly doubt it’s going to get cold enough in the Triangle area for snow here.

When your surface temps are starting out in the low-mid 40s and you’re hoping for cold advection midday to save you, for a fast-moving system like this that doesn’t have a true cold source, it’s a recipe for disaster.
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I agree with you and not expecting a high impact event, but just one to two degrees can make a big difference here between seeing a few flakes mixed with rain and several hours of watching it snow, albeit without a lot of accumulation. I would be down with that
 
RBR71 said:
Yeah I think we're cooked, I have doubts I'll even see a flake mix in now this far east. Good luck to others S and W of us
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The northwest trend was not our friend. No cold air source to feed the storm while things are happening did us in. One more thing, a good snowpack to the north of us may have also helped matters. The snowpack for this time of year across the United States as a whole is very lacking compared to normal.
 
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Stormdoc said:
I agree with you and not expecting a high impact event, but just one to two degrees can make a big difference here between seeing a few flakes mixed with rain and several hours of watching it snow, albeit without a lot of accumulation. I would be down with that
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I don’t see that happening here, not when the cold air doesn’t show up first and your precip starts earlier
 
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