They say ‘93 SOC was showing up 8-10 days out!
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Pattern January Joke
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
I’d give up my snow for the rest of the winter for that storm to happen that way! CLT to RAH everybody get 10”+
I see snow all the time now, but I know it hits different down there!
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I see snow all the time now, but I know it hits different down there!
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fixedThere’s only 13 days worth of SE trending to go.
I hope they do better than they did for their 12/31-1/15 forecast, which they showed again with high confidence in late Dec:
So, they had most of the E US 1-4 BN.
What verified?
-The SE was 4-7 AN vs their forecast of 1-2 BN (~7 too cold).
-DC-NYC was +3 vs their fcast of -2. So, 5 too cold.
-Midwest was +5 to +8 vs their 0 to -4. So, 8 too cold.
-DFW/Den was +10/+11 vs their +3. So, 7 too cold.
-Even Great Falls, that they had +8, was actually +17. So, 9 too cold.
-They had Phoenix 3 too cold
-They were closest for SF/LV, which they had at +2. They actually were +2/+3.
Some random observations:
AI Euro Ens trend loop on 5 day snowfall for Jan 24-29
AI Euro Ens continues to look good and looks better than the EPS here on Jan 25 (too much ridging on the EPS - 1st image)
Finally, AI Weathernext Ens looks more like the AI Euro Ens in terms of being farther south with the cold here on Jan 27
AI Euro Ens trend loop on 5 day snowfall for Jan 24-29
AI Euro Ens continues to look good and looks better than the EPS here on Jan 25 (too much ridging on the EPS - 1st image)
Finally, AI Weathernext Ens looks more like the AI Euro Ens in terms of being farther south with the cold here on Jan 27
NCWeatherNow
Member
Id be somewhat intrigued if the EPS and GEFS was on board
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Yeh somebody is getting a Winter Storm on the forum in this timeframe.
AIGFS with a beauty this morning
jeez everybody what is going on
jeez everybody what is going on
and AIFS has the same setup
man
man
GFS a hit also. 
rburrel2
Member
Every model is hitting on every run. The heck is going on here?
yoink
We are making late January great again.
NCWeatherNow
Member
Hopefully we make February great again too.
SegTindo
Member
Let’s hope it stays that way and doesn’t change to nothing once it gets closer
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J1C1111
Member
Hey Rain Cold. Wake up brother. It's snowing outside.
outside.
accu35
Member
Someone in the SE gonna be buried in snow before this is all over with. Never seen such strong agreement here.
rburrel2
Member
I’ve been watching models for winter weather every day for over 20 years. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a storm this consistently modeled at hr264-270’ish before.
Can still vanish with the next runs, but just wild to see this much agreement that far out.
Can still vanish with the next runs, but just wild to see this much agreement that far out.
NCWeatherNow
Member
Winter storm Diego stuck out like a sore thumb at this range also, I remember seeing 10 inch means 10+ days out.
SegTindo
Member
SegTindo
Member
I do remember that showed up a while back but my memory is a little fuzzy but I do remember that the gfs had a killer winter storm for the Deep South like 6-10 inches with some colddd temps but it vanished that day
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rburrel2
Member
gfs, euro ai, and gfsai all have a winter storm where the moisture is yanked in from that Baja cut off out west. That’ll be the thing to watch. They all slide it east in to the trough dropping down.
NCWeatherNow
Member
I got a foot of snow hehe
SegTindo
Member
12 inches?!? That’s crazy I know you were happy as hell!
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rburrel2
Member
Euro ai is locked in. And I mean locked in.
rburrel2
Member
This is five runs in a row with a winter storm for us, in the same general timeframe. Euro AI.
rburrel2
Member
This is stupid.
a_gilmore88
Member
Obviously won’t go down like this but man, what a bomb.
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Yours truly’s birthday is January 29th. I won’t ask for anything else except this verifying.
NCWeatherNow
Member
EPS mean for the Triad
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
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Some graupel/snow this morning!
Flo
Member
Feel like Michael Myers is round the corner
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
I know it won’t verify, but the overnight Euro went crazy with the PV lobe, it just highlights the potential of some serious cold not too far away that’s available.
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Up in Boone this morning. Got a little less than an inch of snow overnight. Couple of my boys heading over to Beech Mountain this morning to do some sledding.
Dang I missed it. Woke up at 7:30. Long day yesterday. Glad to see what looks like a good pattern in the heart of winter for once.Hey Rain Cold. Wake up brother. It's snowing
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
That is one mammoth winter storm to our NW on the 12z GFS
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Iceagewhereartthou
Member
A 1052 and you only get snow down to I 70? Need some blocking to buckle a trough.
That is one mammoth winter storm to our NW on the 12z GFS
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rburrel2
Member
Aigfs is stuck at hr204, but it’s going to be glorious I think.
Last thing I’m concerned about is whacky gfs solutions.
Last thing I’m concerned about is whacky gfs solutions.