ForsythSnow
Moderator
Given the GEFS is on board I'd be curious to see the UKMET and Euro runs. If they come on board in the next few runs it's definitely game on for a lot of N GA as well as areas further south. The axis is pretty good.
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Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
I wonder how much longer are the models going to continue correcting the shortwave?
iGRXY
Member
Still goingducketta27
Member
Mitch gonna be happy at 4am. Huge mean in Deep South so far
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Mitch lives in Columbia, SC. This effectively gives him no chance… but yes, I’m sure he’ll be happy for others… bummed the Deep South and upstate and NC see another storm before him
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Feel like for my area for the small amount of time ive been on here never seen that many ensembles line up
That is the most beautiful GEFS esemble mean I've ever seen.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
SegTindo
Member
00z GEFS run had a crazy uptrend from 18z
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Forevertothee
Member
To see the N most part of the FL panhandle with a mean of 2 inches is just unbelievable. Oh wait, 2025 says hello. Just wow.
iGRXY
Member
Brandon10
Member
Sigh....too warm as usual east of 95.
rburrel2
Member
You don’t want to be anywhere near the predicted rain/snow transition line at go time for this one. Almost certainly gonna wind up further north than modeled.
Thanks. Here it is: I'll fix it in a few
Flo
Member
They won’t end up with that just like Columbia won’t end up with an inch.
ChattaVOL
Member
Baron model has handled these events in the past pretty dang well.
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SnowmasterATL
Member
significant increase!
NCSNOW
Member
Over .50 qpf off an ensemble mean(GEFS). Man what a fast 180.
iGRXY
Member
UK is also coming in west lololol
NWG_WX14
Member
4” mean on the GEFS for the triad. I really like where we sit at this moment
SnowmasterATL
Member
Honestly, I think the GFS is tooo amped and will come down once sampled and EURO will come back NW but not as robust of the GFS. I see a perfect blend of the too. I think the cold air will not be an issue at the end hopefully.
NCSNOW
Member
You know how this is gonna unfold dont you? By the way where is Jimmy the wishcaster who has brought this spell on my good fortunes lol.
It's literally is the second coming of December 2017....
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Ok, the GFS can stop now.... All eyes will be on the UK/Euro team. They almost have to follow other guidance and move west. Big question on everyone's mind is when will this west trend stop?
NCSNOW
Member
I think the euro is gonna go to town . Every move west we are seeing each cycle, just opens up the floodgates off the Atlantic
iGRXY
Member
If I’m east of 77 and south of 85 I’d be sick right now honestly.
UKMET is still on the eastern envelope, but that's a large uptick in moisture and further west.
Guess I need to rename the thread like I was saying few days ago.
ducketta27
Member
Does the limit exist to how far NW this thing gets in this scenario? Wonder if [mention]Webberweather53 [/mention]has insight
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UNCSC
Member
Member 16 on the GEFS would shut down the southeast for 2 weeks
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Yeah, I just poked around the soundings. Surface temps mid-upper 30s.
NCSNOW
Member
JB made a great call back right before NYD, saying winter rolls back in Jan 15th. Right on que
Not the mama
Member
How far nw do we think euro will go on this one? Realistically.
GoDuke
Member
Yeah it’s the gfs but when any model has their ensembles agree that much it’s hard to bet against.
accu35
Member
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It’s a large NW shift this run. Big improvement. By tomorrow it will be gfs like