Pattern December Doldrums 2025 🎄 ❄️

[Bigedd09]

End of the HRRR

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[NCHighCountryWX]

Next minor event Monday December 8

 

[BIG FROSTY]

Another great video this morning, worth the watch IMO

 

[packfan98]

Another great video this morning, worth the watch IMO

Definitely another great video. Really focuses on the maturation of the pattern with lots of potential from December 20th - January 10th. Sign me up!

 

[blueheronNC]

DT made great point about NS vorts need to enter conus through Dakotas, not wicsky east. Flow to fast around PV sitting in SE canada, to allow for much amplification. Looked like late this week, we could get our wish and see NS energy come down futher west, and increase our odds. We shall see.
All our TC indexes, kinda stay neutral , tip slightly in our favor throughout Dec. MJO hanging out in phase 8 and PV been obliterated and anchored down over SE canada, is our two aces in our hand this month.

In the era of AI-augmented weather models, why wouldn’t an analysis like this go into the AI models and essentially have them self-correct for the biases? Seems like more teleconnection experts like DT need to be working directly with projects like Google DeepMind or AIFS

 

[jackendrickwx]

there are some extremely cold ensemble members out there in the LR

 

[DopplerWx]

Nam spotty snow showers

 

[Twister]

Nam even gives the upstate some flurries Monday

 

[DopplerWx]

Nam even gives the upstate some flurries Monday

Yes @Webberweather53 was all over this a few days ago . If we can get our second snow showers before mid dec that’s a win

 

[DopplerWx]

3k, let’s trend this wetter

 

[griteater]

Winter to date

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

Winter to date

View attachment 178188

Florida really sticks out.

 

[Brent]

Winter to date

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Ah yes I remember a few weeks ago when people here said no cold air anytime soon...

Another day we're still in the 30s at 10am and next weekend is looking really cold. Nothing to see here

 

[DopplerWx]

Uh GFS..

 

[packfan98]

Uh GFS..

Yep. I went ahead and fired up an event thread.

12/8/2025 - Another light event. Congratulations Virginia??

 

[Mitch West]

The GFS is throwing the entire polar vortex at us.

 

[Mitch West]

Good lawd.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Black hole TPV over Kentucky. I bet the CPC didn't have that on their bingo card. Brrr

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

The GFS is going for the ridge bridge into Alaska on this run, obliterating the NW Cadian trough.

 

[Stevo24]

I mean I’m never gonna complain about cold at Christmas but of course it’s dryyyyyyyy

 

[Brent]

I don't think this was on the CPC bingo card either. How strange

 

[CaryWx]

Good lawd.
View attachment 178196

mercy!

 

[LukeBarrette]

Black hole TPV over Kentucky. I bet the CPC didn't have that on their bingo card. Brrr
View attachment 178197

Drop it a bit further southwest and tilt that sucker

 

[LukeBarrette]

Drop it a bit further southwest and tilt that sucker

If the TPV does drop then everyone on this board should be paying attention, Miller A potential with legit cold

 

[KyloG]

Geez, quite a trend on the GFS

 

[LukeBarrette]

Geez, quite a trend on the GFS

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There is that ridge spiking!! Big dog potential soon

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

Geez, quite a trend on the GFS

View attachment 178201View attachment 178202

I see you +PNA


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[GaStorm]

Great trends for sure so far. Just hope if we are lucky enough to get snow the cold can keep it around for Christmas.

 

[Rain Cold]

One more day. Tick tock.

 

[GaWx]

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

View attachment 178205

Can we get a 990 "miller A" along the coast of Charleston to go along with that cold? I would pay a health sum to get a huge snowstorm in mid-December.

 

[weather nerd]

In the era of AI-augmented weather models, why wouldn’t an analysis like this go into the AI models and essentially have them self-correct for the biases? Seems like more teleconnection experts like DT need to be working directly with projects like Google DeepMind or AIFS

Interestingly, we had spoken to grok and Google Ai...

Grok said the warmup on models was fake.
Google Ai said it was a real warmup.

But I don't think google ai understood the question I wrote it as grok referenced Judah and the mjo directly.

And from what I see, weather next 2's actual data was colder anyways.. I think the chat was just prompted badly.

Eventually Google's model will be available to us all so we don't have to ask about it with Google Ai that seems outdated

 

[Chazwin]

Can we get a 990 "miller A" along the coast of Charleston to go along with that cold? I would pay a health sum to get a huge snowstorm in mid-December.

Hey now. That would probably give me a sleet bomb from the warm nose. I’ll take a 1010mb moving right the Gulf Coast and give as a widespread overrunning like January 1988

 

[Mitch West]

What a trend.

 

[griteater]

6 days ago the GEFS had us in a SE ridge for Dec 12. Hahahahahahaha





Laugh while we can I guess

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

What a trend.
View attachment 178206

Mitch do you have the 2m RTR change? Curious, I bet it’s colder.


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[Stormdoc]

6 days ago the GEFS had us in a SE ridge for Dec 12. Hahahahahahaha

View attachment 178208

View attachment 178210

Laugh while we can I guess

Love seeing that Scandinavian ridge over the top, trying to connect with the Alaskan ridge. Fun times around here with Siberian air flow

 

[weather bubba]

It's going to feel like the North Pole when that polar vortex displacement gets here. Now we have to work on the looking like the North Pole part as far as getting some precipitation to work in conjunction with the cold air.

 

[Mitch West]

Mitch do you have the 2m RTR change? Curious, I bet it’s colder.


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[CNCsnwfan1210]

View attachment 178212

Yeah, the colder changes are more consistent over a good chunk of the southern US after 12/12, thanks!


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