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Pattern December Doldrums 2025 🎄 ❄️

weather nerd said:
what do you mean? this is normal this early on. va is closer to cold air generally speaking
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Normal early on, yes. Except the last few years we've been getting completely scammed out on winter weather.. So it's kind of one of those things. This system had some promising looks but even if we get the moisture WWA is going to probably be the killer.
 
iwantsouthernsnow123 said:
Normal early on, yes. Except the last few years we've been getting completely scammed out on winter weather.. So it's kind of one of those things. This system had some promising looks but even if we get the moisture WWA is going to probably be the killer.
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It sucks but y'all need a Gulf low down there
 
Brent said:
It sucks but y'all need a Gulf low down there
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NW Flow appeared originally like it could breach containment if it did end up being a big NW flow. But if that vort keeps trending to dig less and less NW flow containment breach is a lost cause for anywhere outside of the farther northern areas of NC. Maybe CLT gets something but if that vort keeps trending north, it could and probably will be a miss for there too.
 
acbcc64e04663a34f3e19f439d0ced9a.jpg

Trough not quite as sharp and not much (if any) interaction with surface low, but still had some snow for parts of NC and Va.


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C-Money said:
GFS and NAM look good for NC. Euro looks so-so. ICON and RGEM not good.
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C-Money said:
GFS and NAM look good for NC. Euro looks so-so. ICON and RGEM not good.
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Hopefully the RGEM caves for us central NC people. I like how the NAM wants to join in on the snowfall I have a lot of trust in it! The question really is just how much QPF can we get based on the lows position and strength.
 
iwantsouthernsnow123 said:
RGEM following the exact same thing as ICON.. The Rich really do get richer
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I will say, Blacksburg averages 20+ inches a winter. Elevation does it. We have not hit that average in 5ish years
 
ducketta27 said:
I’m in west central SC, so I don’t stand a chance all winter… ha.. but just curious for you TN and NC folks… 12/12-13 has looked interesting…

I may do some snow chasing next weekend if a threat pops up.


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I'm from Northeast Georgia, we used to get some good events but we've struggled the last few years.. Really hoping for something this year but tbh if we get anything its probably jan/feb.
 
We average 9 here and last year was the first year it was close to normal since 2021. Also it was pretty much all one storm in January kind of out of nowhere(shifted NW at the last second) lol

Then February was hyped to death as some historic blizzard and it snowed 14 hours to get 2 inches so yeah the predictions here have been awful lol
 
Bigedd09 said:
Been a real trend the last couple years for our storms to be moisture starved. Cold is fun and all but it sucks how there’s such little moisture

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That's the major problem with Arctic air... It usually hurts us out here too

The best storms are when it's just barely cold enough in my experience lol

But I'd rather be worried about moisture than cold air I guess

Anyway the much hyped torch is definitely disappearing here
 
I highly recommend you all watch DT’s video. He does a great job explaining the teleconnections, the potential storms and the limiting factors, and also why the models have been too warm in weeks 2-3. Great visuals and relative easy to understand for us hobbyists. Let me know what you think.
 
Latent heat is a killer. Last night I got down to 32.0 degrees at 9pm. Kind of (not) funny, but I stayed right at freezing all night. Currently 32.0 degrees. It's mostly wet outside. There's some freezing on top of the cars, but even that is minimal. For a snow/ice weather lover, this is terrible.

edit: Maybe I'll have a better shot tonight.
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packfan98 said:
I highly recommend you all watch DT’s video. He does a great job explaining the teleconnections, the potential storms and the limiting factors, and also why the models have been too warm in weeks 2-3. Great visuals and relative easy to understand for us hobbyists. Let me know what you think.
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I caught his stream last night, too. Well worth the watch as it will help folks step back from the cliff after viewing the CPC 3-4 week forecast and the persistent -PNA and warm SE that refuses to back down on all of the day 10+ ensembles.

I'll add that something that keeps me bullish for the second half of December is that much above normal snowcover continues and shows no sign of going anywhere over the northern tier. Even the Great Lakes are likely to be mostly ice-covered by the end of the month, and Sea Ice in Hudson Bay will be a month ahead of the past few years. So, any eastern trough amplification will have a cold air tap nearby, and we're not dependent on cross-polar flow from the high Arctic to get cold enough for some mischief.
 
packfan98 said:
I highly recommend you all watch DT’s video. He does a great job explaining the teleconnections, the potential storms and the limiting factors, and also why the models have been too warm in weeks 2-3. Great visuals and relative easy to understand for us hobbyists. Let me know what you think.
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WATCHED. . Best breakdown, simplification ive seen to date. Thanks for sharing and yall get 10 mins, watch this through. That explantion of the models misreading the trough connected to the Block over Alaska was money. Explains all the headfakes we been getting on day 9-15 warmups. Wrap you pipes up by next Sunday
 
DT made great point about NS vorts need to enter conus through Dakotas, not wicsky east. Flow to fast around PV sitting in SE canada, to allow for much amplification. Looked like late this week, we could get our wish and see NS energy come down futher west, and increase our odds. We shall see.
All our TC indexes, kinda stay neutral , tip slightly in our favor throughout Dec. MJO hanging out in phase 8 and PV been obliterated and anchored down over SE canada, is our two aces in our hand this month.
 
packfan98 said:
I highly recommend you all watch DT’s video. He does a great job explaining the teleconnections, the potential storms and the limiting factors, and also why the models have been too warm in weeks 2-3. Great visuals and relative easy to understand for us hobbyists. Let me know what you think.
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Great video by DT, I have always found his videos to be very easy to follow along and learn some things... ❄️❄️🌨️ I just wonder how long we can keep this pattern going into January's "prime time". I'm just afraid it flips early, and there will be no flip back the rest of the way in... If it holds till mid January, SURELY we can get at least one good snow storm and maybe an Ice storm, which we haven't had in a very long time.
 
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