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Pattern Oct 10-13 Nor Easter or No Easter

But seriously though, what IS this thing? Extratropical but maybe a hint of subtropical?

Yeah i was wondering the same thing....the NHC doesn't have anything for it no lemon etc so I guess its a glorified wannabe noreaster.

I assume it will be a cold core low not sure what the criteria are for extra tropical or sub tropical....
 
A 10.4 ft high tide is being forecasted for Ft. Pulaski for late Friday morning:


That would be tied for the 7th highest tide on record at Ft. Pulaski going back ~90 years, tied with the 8/11/1940 hurricane. It would be only barely lower than the highest tide on record there not associated with a TC, which is the 10.45’ of 11/7/2021!

IMG_4788.png

The following is from this morning’s updated KCHS discussion:

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

STRONG NE WINDS RESULTING FROM BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW TIDAL DEPARTURES TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES. ASTRONOMICAL
TIDE VALUES ARE ALREADY ELEVATED OWING TO THE RECENT FULL MOON AND
PERIGEE, WHICH COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEPARTURES WILL RESULT IN
COASTAL FLOODING WITH EACH HIGH TIDE CYCLE INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRING, THE POSITION OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL HIGHLY INFLUENCE THE TIDAL
DEPARTURE.

CHARLESTON HARBOR TIDE GAGE: THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO HIT MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING
(>8 FT MLLW). A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CHARLESTON
AND COASTAL COLLETON COUNTIES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TIDAL BERKELEY COUNTY THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FORT PULASKI TIDE GAGE: THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES THROUGH
SATURDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING (10
TO 10.5 FT MLLW). A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM
BEAUFORT COUNTY, SC SOUTHWARD TO MCINTOSH COUNTY, GA FROM 8 AM THIS
MORNING UNTIL NOON TODAY.
 
Typically a storm inching NW within 120 hours is not at all surprising. Given the fact its working beneficial rains west makes me skeptical since we have batted just about 1.000 on hitting every single way to miss out for basically 60 days nowView attachment 175425

West trend looks legit...ICON

trend-icon-2025100912-f108.qpf_acc-imp.us_ma.gif
 
What we would give for the west trend to continue. Piedmont/Coast Plain is getting a bit crunchy. BTW, the most boring PNG any of us could post. Drought Monitor.


View attachment 175429
I'm assuming these maps are based off shorter term amounts? There's no way the central coastal plains is In D2 when they are only .50 inch behind their yearly average while I'm in D0 and we are a full 12 inches behind for the year.

Screenshot_20251009_152800_Chrome.jpgScreenshot_20251009_153001_Chrome.jpg
 
From KCHS: the highest tide of the series is still progged to be today’s late morning tide

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

STRONG NE WINDS RESULTING FROM HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW TIDAL DEPARTURES TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES. ASTRONOMICAL TIDE VALUES
ARE ALREADY ELEVATED OWING TO THE RECENT FULL MOON AND PERIGEE,
WHICH COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEPARTURES WILL RESULT IN COASTAL
FLOODING WITH EACH HIGH TIDE CYCLE INTO THE WEEKEND.

CHARLESTON HARBOR TIDE GAGE: THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO HIT MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING
THRESHOLDS (>8 FT MLLW). A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
CHARLESTON AND COASTAL COLLETON COUNTIES FOR THE LATE MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE WHEN LEVELS COULD PEAK IN THE 8.3-8.5 FT MLLW RANGE. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TIDAL BERKELEY COUNTY.
FLOODING CAN OCCUR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER THE TIDE PEAKS.
IT'S WORTH NOTING CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE AS HIGH IN REACHING MAJOR
ON SATURDAY AS PURE ASTRONOMICAL VALUES START TO COME DOWN. WHILE
THE MORNING TIDES ARE DOMINANT, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDES. THE THREAT FOR COASTAL
FLOODING SHOULD DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORT PULASKI TIDE GAGE: THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES FOR TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING (10 TO 10.5 FT MLLW). A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS NOW IN
PLACE FOR THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE WHEN LEVELS COULD
PEAK IN THE 10.2 TO 10.4 FT MLLW RANGE. ADDITIONAL COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON TIDE CYCLE, THEN THE
THREAT FOR COASTAL FLOODING SHOULD DECREASE.
 
I'm so desperate for a good wind storm I'm starting to chant HRRR in my head to get it to come true
I’m so desperate for a decent rain, while not as bad as some areas it would help with the last few mows of my dust bowl yard! Hopefully the western trend continues on the short term models and more importantly provides a little bit!
 
The NWS office in Raleigh is calling for .25 to .50 inches of rain in areas west of 95 and from 1 to 2 inches in inland areas west of the coast from this coastal system based on QPF. I'm hoping this will be an overperformer because the rain is much needed all across North Carolina
 
The NWS office in Raleigh is calling for .25 to .50 inches of rain in areas west of 95 and from 1 to 2 inches in inland areas east of the coast from this coastal system. I'm hoping this will be an overperformer because the rain is much needed all across North Carolina
What inland areas east of the coast?
 
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