Tropical 94L - PTC to be issued later today

[RBR71]

Cooler weather late next week maybe then back to summer right through at least mid October, if not longer. The long range GFS shows this well.

You should be exiled to banter, forever

 

[TheWeatherDriver]

I'm a little worried about the stalling potential of this storm. If the Upper-Level Low is able to tap into this tropical systems moisture it could mean torrential rainfall for much of SC, NC, and VA. The good thing is that rain is needed in much of the SE but the problem in drought conditions is that the rain kind of stands on the ground since it's so hard.

 

[tramadoc]

As far as the conditions most of us in Central North Carolina might see, Florence might be a good comparison. 94L may become a slow moving Category 1 hurricane like Florence wherever it comes ashore dumping buckets of rain along its path. Florence broke many rainfall records for NC coastal communities with around 35 inches being recorded in Elizabeth City and 25 in Wilmington. In the KRDU area, rainfall totals ranged anywhere from six to eight inches around Raleigh and up to twelve inches in some locations south of Raleigh.

Elizabeth City did NOT get 35” of rain. I think you mean Elizabethtown in Bladen County.

 

[jrips27]

Yeah this might be the kill shot for landfall chances

 

[Brent]

Only about 30 percent of the EPS makes landfall apparently that's kind of embarrassing for some of the hype going around

 

[Stormsfury]

I know there’s no correlation between storms but man every hurricane has overperformed this season when it comes to rapid intensification

Interestingly enough, Humberto is also moving south of due west as well.

 

[Stevo24]

Man we have been seeing some huge busts lately in forecasting. The news hyped this thing up all day long and now 2 days away and it’s going out to sea? Weathers more unpredictable than ever.

 

[YetAnotherRDUGuy]

NHC latest now showing a stall/drift as it approaches the coastline.

 

[jrips27]

 

[GaWx]

0Z Icon is again OTS.

 

[JHS]

0Z Icon is again OTS.

And no real effects inland either. This model has led the way with this for sure.

 

[lexxnchloe]

0Z Icon is again OTS.

ICON is a bit nuts, not that it wont be OTS. It does get a little further west. The nuts part is it deepens it to 937 mb as it goes over the cold wakes left by itself and Hummy

 

[jrips27]

0z GFS even slower with the vorticity through 24. My guess would be it stays offshore again but we will see what happens

 

[910guy]

Elizabeth City did NOT get 35” of rain. I think you mean Elizabethtown in Bladen County.

We did, 36 here in Elizabethtown if I remember correctly

 

[jrips27]

Slower. 4 run trend here

 

[lexxnchloe]

Oddly enough GFS is making Immy stronger than Hummy

 

[Stevo24]

I think 94L is going to become strong enough to ignore anything Humberto has going on.

Edit. I guess it’s just going to do whatever Humberto does. Crazy.

 

[jrips27]

Not even close this run through Tuesday. Wild

 

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET: once again like the Icon OTS on every run

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 23.5N 77.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.09.2025 36 23.5N 77.3W 1004 38
0000UTC 29.09.2025 48 25.0N 77.5W 1002 38
1200UTC 29.09.2025 60 26.5N 78.0W 1001 38
0000UTC 30.09.2025 72 28.1N 78.3W 998 43
1200UTC 30.09.2025 84 28.3N 78.5W 995 42
0000UTC 01.10.2025 96 27.6N 76.9W 993 38
1200UTC 01.10.2025 108 27.4N 74.6W 991 45
0000UTC 02.10.2025 120 27.8N 71.6W 989 45
1200UTC 02.10.2025 132 28.3N 68.0W 987 48
0000UTC 03.10.2025 144 28.8N 63.5W 989 66
1200UTC 03.10.2025 156 29.8N 59.3W 994 54
0000UTC 04.10.2025 168 30.3N 56.7W 997 41

 

[Ross]

I think 94L is going to become strong enough to ignore anything Humberto has going on.

Edit. I guess it’s just going to do whatever Humberto does. Crazy.

Not how the Fujiwara effect works lol

 

[GaWx]

0Z JMA at 72 (limit for 0Z) implies later absorption by the much stronger pretty nearby Humberto

0Z CMC stays OTS unlike 12Z, which looped back to NC

Edit: But CMC later does turn N and hit E MA!

 

[jrips27]

0z Euro stays well offshore. This is a tight situation for sure but landfall prospects seem to be dwindling. Crazy this has slowed down by a full day in the last 24 hours

 

[JalenW25]

Sent from my A600DL using Tapatalk

 

[Brent]

Yup most of the models are out to sea now. Seems like we're converging on that solution

 

[lexxnchloe]

0Z JMA at 72 (limit for 0Z) implies later absorption by the much stronger pretty nearby Humberto

0Z CMC stays OTS unlike 12Z, which looped back to NC

Edit: But CMC later does turn N and hit E MA!

Rather unlikely

 

[Shaggy]

Only question now is how close can it get to any land masses before the east turn. Any delay will increase beach issues for SC and NC obviously the slower motion leads to humberto catching up

 

[Stormsfury]

The HAFS-A and HAFS-B on the 6z cycle should be disregarded as it concentrated on a primary low well south of Cuba starting its cycle.

 

[RBR71]

06z euro AI actually brings it back inland next Saturday. It's an outlier atm but heck who knows, we're still waiting on a developed LLC and still complicated environment ahead

 

[Brent]

Recon looks to be a lot closer to a center north of Cuba

 

[weather bubba]

Once an actual center of circulation is identified then I think the models will get a better handle on what this system will do. Three things might explain the shift in the models we have seen over the last twelve hours that stall and take 94L out to sea in Humberto's footsteps:

1. A stronger blocking high pressure
2. The strength of Humberto is higher than initially forecasted
3. The delayed development of 94L

 

[JalenW25]

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[JalenW25]

Today marks 1 year since Helene hit Western NC with historic flooding. Crazy how time flies by

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[RBR71]

Once an actual center of circulation is identified then I think the models will get a better handle on what this system will do. Three things might explain the shift in the models we have seen over the last twelve hours that stall and take 94L out to sea in Humberto's footsteps:

1. A stronger blocking high pressure
2. The strength of Humberto is higher than initially forecasted
3. The delayed development of 94L

It will also be interesting to see how quickly the Atlantic trough kicks Humberto out and if it leaves Imelda behind, allowing ridge to build overtop. Like AI shows, but again that's only model doing that atm. All others have it heading ots with H

 

[RBR71]

Dang I'm gonna miss the NAM

 

[BHS1975]

If the center jumps north under the blow up that would give it a head start before it feels the pull of the trough later.

 

[GaWx]

The last frame of 6Z Euro has this stop its ENE movement and then suddenly drift back due W fwiw as Humberto accelerates away and the upper high builds enough to its N to change the steering.

Although this is the only major op doing this, 40% of the 6Z EPS do not escape and most of those stall not too far offshore and then attain a W component of motion.

 

[JalenW25]

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[lexxnchloe]

The last frame of 6Z Euro has this stop its ENE movement and then suddenly drift back due W fwiw as Humberto accelerates away and the upper high builds enough to its N to change the steering.

Although this is the only major op doing this, 40% of the 6Z EPS do not escape and most of those stall not too far offshore and then attain a W component of motion.

Huge difference between 6Z and 0Z

0Z



6Z

and it is inching west at 144

 

[jrips27]

 

[jrips27]