Think we’re gonna get a stall soon
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Tropical 94L - PTC to be issued later today
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
ThErE's No LLC YeT.
Never makes it onshore lol. Or even really particularly close
JHS
Member
This GFS run is going to keep it out to sea it looks like. A very slow east movement at 108.
Brent
Member
lexxnchloe
Member
lexxnchloe
Member
Lots of weakening as well as it goes over chilly upwelled water from Hummy and itself
lexxnchloe
Member
Excitement cancel alert
Humberto might be a Cat 4 soon. Meanwhile PTC 9 can’t even form a LLC
Brent
Member
The icon has led the way on the storm not making landfall btw
The GFS and even the Euro have trended towards it
The GFS and even the Euro have trended towards it
That's certainly a first
lexxnchloe
Member
JB was right!! GFS no longer bullwhips it into the Carolinas
Humberto a major the next few days. Gotta worry about PTC 9 ramping up fast also Monday and Tuesday as MJO goes into phase 2 which has been where all the landfalling majors within 2 days of the coast have ramped up. Likely to crawl or stall in the Carolina coastal waters next week. GFS bullwhip into Carolinas looks to be out of touch. Likely will back off
Humberto a major the next few days. Gotta worry about PTC 9 ramping up fast also Monday and Tuesday as MJO goes into phase 2 which has been where all the landfalling majors within 2 days of the coast have ramped up. Likely to crawl or stall in the Carolina coastal waters next week. GFS bullwhip into Carolinas looks to be out of touch. Likely will back off
One would think this setup would cause a massive CAD/upslope situation even with the storm OTS.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
It does I think, although I'm not checking to see if there are NE winds:
Beautiful, beautiful stuff here. Think most of the week stays cool.
Shaggy
Member
The gfs and euro lose to the icon and cmc. Just wow
18z Euro also looks like it’s going to be a miss
Don’t forget about the UKMET. It has yet to have anything even close to a landfall.
Shaggy
Member
Maybe the plane out there will find a center to actually start analyzing
lexxnchloe
Member
AI switches to landfall, lol
If this is the same storm and we're possibly talking about this a week from now I can imagine the headaches meteorologists will have if they already have one tracking this as it is now
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
IDK if it has still been the same deal, but the HMON was the most accurate of positioning of PTC9 as of a day or so ago and it has this 
:
:
There will be. Just not tonight
Don't look now, but the euro AI has had an approach to the SC coast followed by stall and turn OTS for several runs now. It hasn't made landfall since the 18z run on Wednesday, but what it has had is varying degrees of closeness to the coastline before heading away. this obviously makes a huge difference on coastal rainfall totals!
Shaggy
Member
Anyone have humberto diving SW in the short term on their bingo card?
Shaggy
Member
Beach erosion will be severe with a 3 day crawling storm producing TS force winds over a long period
You are right but this last run actually turns back West after hitting the HP and then makes landfall. Something we also have to watch out for.
Tokenfreak
Member
I’ve noticed that too. Wonder if it will matter a lot in the lot term track for PTC9?
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Now PTC 9!
Stormsfury
Member
RECON has multiple swirls with PTC 9. One where its noted on advisory, one closer to the Bahama Island, can't remember what its called.
Shaggy
Member
Might not make a difference but if the low forms 50-100 miles east of advisory it might mean more interaction with humberto
GeorgiaGirl
Member
HWRF was the only hurricane model to switch to no landfall. Takes a nice tour just off the SC coast that includes a ride back SE and the rain totals would be pretty gnarly.
Yeah she's going ots it seems. Probably for the best, some of those rainfall forecasts were getting intense
Heres hoping for a smooth transition into cooler weather
Heres hoping for a smooth transition into cooler weather
Not really a big deal it’s easy for waves to realign and figure it out
JHS
Member
Cooler weather late next week maybe then back to summer right through at least mid October, if not longer. The long range GFS shows this well.
I know there’s no correlation between storms but man every hurricane has overperformed this season when it comes to rapid intensification
Even it never makes an actual landfall, if it stalls out that close the coast for a couple days, there’s still gonna be plenty of moisture getting pulled in especially with interaction with that trough to the west