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Tropical 94L - PTC to be issued later today

Brent said:
Dennis is probably the one you're remembering

The same year as Floyd which caused the whole east coast to panic

At one point Floyd was gonna hit Cape Canaveral and then it kept going up the coast
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Yeah, it was Dennis from 1999. He came far enough inland to give my area some rain.
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Dare I say seems we are getting a consensus on the track at least.
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I'd be cautious about it still. Really uncommon setup in the Atl and how Humberto evolves will play a big role. And I bet there are still a few surprises yet to come.
 
jrips27 said:
TS into Myrtle beach on the 18z GFS

View attachment 175127
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any landfalling solution probably involves shear and potential dry air entrainment with HP to the north so the board getting all worked up for a bogus TS would make sense

edit, i was wrong, the dry air actually comes from the south

1758840912305.png
halficane. i don't see imelda having a high ceiling intensity-wise
 
You folks were correct to call me out, it was Dennis that did some wacky things in the Atlantic instead of Diane in 1999. I do remember that as
Dennis was partially responsible for one of the most unusual and productive fishing trips I've ever been on as it made its closest approach to the North Carolina coast.

Me and a friend of mine took a john boat to a pond that we fished frequently. We were using artificial lures and every cast we were getting bites. We probably caught seventy to eighty fish in about an hour. Most of them were bluegill, long ear sunfish and small bass. The fish were
jumping out of the water to grab our lures as they dangled off the side of the boat when we changed location. We easily caught over one hundred fish in about a two hour timespan. I have never seen anything to equal that.
 
Ross said:
any landfalling solution probably involves shear and potential dry air entrainment with HP to the north so the board getting all worked up for a bogus TS would make sense

edit, i was wrong, the dry air actually comes from the south

View attachment 175129
halficane. i don't see imelda having a high ceiling intensity-wise
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Yep, agree 100%.

Shear definitely gonna be a problem. Probably a lopsided, hybrid looking storm.
1758841206987.png
 
Ross said:
solid outflow channel here though and if it were to overperform it would be because of that
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Yep was just about to post that...will be moving directionally with the shear, which helps. But as you said earlier, it could be incumbered by dry air, and it absolutely will still "feel" the shear. If it develops a solid inner core quickly enough, it could keep the dry air at bay for a while, though.
 
Rain Cold said:
I'd be cautious about it still. Really uncommon setup in the Atl and how Humberto evolves will play a big role. And I bet there are still a few surprises yet to come.
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Not to mention we don’t even really have a defined center of circulation yet. That will likely cause adjustments wherever it forms
 
JHS said:
Yeah, it was Dennis from 1999. He came far enough inland to give my area some rain.
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That was after it paralleled the coast and stalled southeast of Cape Hatteras for a week then moved west and came into Myrtle Beach as a TS. Many rivers in central and eastern NC swelled from those rains setting up the major flooding from Fran a week later
 
I mean if its just gonna sit there it'll be slinging moisture in till the cows come home.

if you look at the last couple frames of the 18z euro you can juuuuuust start to see the HP nudging in from the north and actually see the 6-hr precip map start to beef back up as we wring out more moisture
 
jrips27 said:
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Per WxBell (may be different from others like TT):
Of the 18Z 30 GEFS/50 EPS members, I count ~25% that bring a lowest SLP of <1000 mb onto the E coast, but I see no lowest SLP <990 mb on the GEFS on land. There do appear to be 7 EPS members that are hurricanes/<990 mb hitting.
 
Avalanche said:
You see the initial impact of Humberto and then the trough saying “enough, it’s MINE!!!”
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It's definitely a step in our direction. It's been blowing ots for a while now. If 94L vacations in the Bahamas for a while, it'll be tough to get it in. But if it gets It's actually together ASAP, which it could, it'll run up ahead of Humberto and keep enough distance to stay NW then west.

If it does come in with It's motor home, you better not go falling in love with it either, because it's gonna take it with it when it leaves next month.
 
tramadoc said:
LOL. First time I’ve heard Moyock on here. I’m in ECity.
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We had a guy in here for the big southern winter storm in January from Moyock. Guy ended up jack potting and he let everybody here know it 💀 Moyock Mauler

Paging @mx3gsr92 … and where is @LickWx ?
 
jeremyt said:
If it makes initial landfall in Moyock I’ll give him my entire retirement account! I know it’s landlocked, that’s as ridiculous as someone saying it’s their storm when there is so much variance!
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Moyock is located in Currituck County. Currituck County is bordered by the Atlantic Ocean. How much you got in that account?
 
looking like the upper level low's likely to be stronger than modeled, capturing the storm and pulling it towards the carolina coast somewhere.

the most pronounced ull, with basic data I have, is the gfs/rgem right now.

here's the 18z rgem, heading the way of the 18z gfs:

rgem_z500_vort_us_85.png
 
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