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Pattern Sweatember

Yeah, it held off until literally the last second, but it does look as if the bill is coming due for that rare CAD event that ate up several days of August that are supposed to be 90+ days as it looks as if the final two weeks of September and even leaking into October will be above average.
 
All models and ens are in agreement about a trough/cutoff developing somewhere over/near the midsouth and southeast in about a week, with a good precip response over much of the area.

The totals vary, with the Euro being about the best case scenario for the upper SE. Pretty good signal. Now let's see how things trend from here.

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It was toasty yesterday, getting worried about those people who throw cigarette buds outside.

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The models are slowly trending drier for late next week. The 18z GFS already shows much of SC and GA with .50 or less now and not much after that right through day 16. No really cool air in sight either. The Euro is wetter but has been trending drier too.
 
Finally had a legit storm earlier... Actually more than one but the one around 1230am almost sounded like a bomb went off and then it's been dead quiet ever since other than a couple car alarms...

The seasons are definitely changing out here
 
The abundance of ridging in eastern Canada this summer has been remarkable. It's forecast to continue by virtually every model and ensemble suite for the next 2 weeks, too.

I don’t know if it portends anything for the winter or not, but it has been persistent.

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Carolina Fever said:
The leaves have been falling off early this year. Already have a bunch in my yard.
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I'm sure it's due to drought (temp hasn't fallen below 60ºF here yet). Some are off here too, on the drought intolerant trees. 0.02" of rain this month, and 0.04" since August 23. Moderate drought conditions will probably expand later this week. Friday had notable dry heat, 93ºF with a 53ºF dewpoint, felt super nice
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Went up to Lake Lanier yesterday, levels are running below normal with the almost totally rainless last month, despite above normal rain in NE Georgia during early-mid August

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Csa said:
I'm sure it's due to drought (temp hasn't fallen below 60ºF here yet). Some are off here too, on the drought intolerant trees. 0.02" of rain this month, and 0.04" since August 23. Moderate drought conditions will probably expand later this week. Friday had notable dry heat, 93ºF with a 53ºF dewpoint, felt super nice
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I think the relatively cool August helped, too.
 
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some evening thoughts before the 18z GFS gets done

Will be interesting to see how widespread precip manages to be if the setup ends up looking like this (which models seem to be pretty much in agreement on). Downstream side of a fat UL trough with pretty much top to bottom SW flow from the gulf and nice PWATs, not to mention solid CAPE on the globals for Friday.
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Still some details to be ironed out on that front though. we got most ens/globals/NBM showing at worst 0.75"-1" generally along-north of I-20 with more aggressive models painting 1-2"+ across that region. Here's NBM and EPS
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But still gonna be a hole to dig out of for all of us rain-wise.
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Hopefully this system can give a nice widespread 1-2" like some models believe, and not be a showery feast-or-famine.

Last thing I'll say is next week looking pretty much fine. EPS is perfectly tolerable with vaguely northerly flow keeping things within a few deg F of normal in the afternoons. Hopefully we can manage a backdoor front late next week
 
J.C. said:
Some very surprising heavy rains tonight. The tempest has recorded extreme for the first time in a while.

1.2”
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We got a bunch last night but my Tempest is not working. I would guess close to an inch.
 
EmersonGA said:
We got a bunch last night but my Tempest is not working. I would guess close to an inch.
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I was bird dogging the radar all afternoon because it was moving, or not moving rather but raining out and redeveloping south and east in a repetitive pattern, except south of you there was a slight rotation, and so the initial rain that hit me formed to my south, the second, much heavier round came from the north and west as that rotation moved through. It was definitely a surprise.
 
J.C. said:
I was bird dogging the radar all afternoon because it was moving, or not moving rather but raining out and redeveloping south and east in a repetitive pattern, except south of you there was a slight rotation, and so the initial rain that hit me formed to my south, the second, much heavier round came from the north and west as that rotation moved through. It was definitely a surprise.
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I wasn’t paying any attention. Once the Falcons game became clear I went out to change my wife’s oil and saw black clouds. I finished about 5 minutes before the rain came.

I just figured out why my Tempest is on the fritz. Ants had built all inside of it.
 

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EmersonGA said:
I wasn’t paying any attention. Once the Falcons game became clear I went out to change my wife’s oil and saw black clouds. I finished about 5 minutes before the rain came.

I just figured out why my Tempest is on the fritz. Ants had built all inside of it.
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Hopefully its fine once you get it cleaned out!
 
Would be nice to get some rain to knock the dust down. Soil moisture is still okay since we have over double our average rain May through August. Might put up a goose egg along the coast for September though if we're unlucky.

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Ross said:
another day of 84/61 at the richmond homestead. plenty of green tomatoes on the vine, praying that they get the kick to ripen before we have our first cool days in october
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I got tired of picking mine so I quit watering. I'm going to tomato hell.
 
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