The 2nd shortwave digging in behind the lead bomb makes this much more threatening for the region than if this was just the single bomb low well N/NW of the region
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Severe 2025 Severe Thread
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Cbmatt2408
Member
This look just screams warm sector with potential for supercells.
JHS
Member
The 6z GFS says this comes into SC and NC during peak heating on Sunday with 60-65 dewpoints and a broken line. It is all about the 2nd low for our area and the southeast though. Without it, it is mostly a nonevent. However, if that low forms it could be a major event for many of us.
Brent
Member
No the scale doesn't go any higher at that range
I can't remember many times that a gfs run impressed me wrt to severe
Psalm 148:8
Member
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That’s a big fat NO burger for me! I do not want Jim Cantore or Brett Adair standing in my driveway! Nope, nope, nope!!! Creepy.. looks like April 2011 parameters.. praying things change .. and we have time for that! Thankfully this is not a day 2 and here it comes.. time for change!!! If models can mess up our cold and winter systems.. hopefully it’s wrong enough about this to go on the weaker side.
Don’t want to look too closely at globals regarding set up but on the Euro there’s multiple waves of storms especially across Alabama. Looks pretty messy versus a 4/27/11 type outbreak where cells had plenty of space to breathe. Definitely some higher end potential here but I don’t think we’re looking at a high end tornado outbreak (as things stand)
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Brent
Member
Meanwhile a tornado hit a TV station that was live on air in an Orlando suburb this morning
Edit: Significant damage from the same storm elsewhere
Edit: Significant damage from the same storm elsewhere
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tractor girl
Member
Looking juicey
Brent
Member
It should be noted they only had a marginal risk. Just goes to show how unpredictable these things are. No reason to panic about Friday and Saturday yet just keep watching and be prepared
That's such a divergent pattern on the gfs, hard to see how we would have much discrete activity other than in the early stages
lizajane
Member
Just had a hail embedded thunder storm come through.
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
That is definitely a nasty look 
FROM THE NWS BMX
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
214 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025
Saturday through Sunday morning.
A shortwave impulse will quickly move east over the Southern
Plains Saturday, resulting in the broad trough to amplify further
and approach the area from the west. While the parent upper and
surface lows become stacked near the Western Great Lakes, the warm
front advances further northeast into the Northern Ohio River
Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic Region while the Pacific Front
approaches the Lower Mississippi River Valley Region Saturday
morning. There continues to be indications of possible secondary
surface low development across Southern Louisiana with a potential
coastal/marine frontogenesis that could advance inland later in
the day and provide richer low-level moisture to an already warm
and unstable environment. The enhanced wind shear associated with
the surface low would only further contribute to strong dynamics
and provide an environment supportive of all modes of severe
weather across the area. The strong front will move through the
area by the pre-dawn hours Sunday morning with a reinforcing cold
front approaching the area from the northwest later in the
afternoon.
Unsettled conditions with ongoing showers and some storms may
persist into the early morning hours Saturday. Outflow boundaries
from previous convection are expected across the area and could
help act as low-level focal points for new convection as strong
warm air/positive moisture advection moves in from the south with
a potentially inland advancing coastal/marine boundary. Some
isentropic lift would be expected with such a feature and could
enhance shower/storm activity early in the day and this potential
could limit the northward extent of this richer low-level moisture
plume. Ultimately, smaller-scale processes not yet resolved will
contribute to the convective evolution through the rest of the
morning hours before the strong front nears from the west during
the afternoon hours. A forced line of thunderstorms with potential
more discrete development ahead of the line is possible and the
supercell tornado potential would be maximized with this activity
while QLCS tornadic activity is expected within the line of storms
due to high shear and expected sufficient buoyancy given no
widespread persistent cloud cover and precipitation occurring
through much of the morning hours. In addition to the tornado
risk, strong forcing aloft will support damaging wind risk that
will be maximized with the line of storms with gusty winds likely
exceeding wind advisory criteria even outside of convection
through the day Saturday. The presence of very cold air aloft will
result in steep lapse rates and will contribute to a large hail
threat across the area as well. By dawn on Sunday morning,
lingering showers with some thunderstorms will be moving through
the southeast third of the area where a low (15-35%) chance of
activity is forecast while drier air ushers into the state from
the west. Highs Saturday will range from the mid 70s north to
around 80 far south and southeast. Lows Saturday night will range
from the upper 40s far northwest to readings around 60 southeast.
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
214 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025
Saturday through Sunday morning.
A shortwave impulse will quickly move east over the Southern
Plains Saturday, resulting in the broad trough to amplify further
and approach the area from the west. While the parent upper and
surface lows become stacked near the Western Great Lakes, the warm
front advances further northeast into the Northern Ohio River
Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic Region while the Pacific Front
approaches the Lower Mississippi River Valley Region Saturday
morning. There continues to be indications of possible secondary
surface low development across Southern Louisiana with a potential
coastal/marine frontogenesis that could advance inland later in
the day and provide richer low-level moisture to an already warm
and unstable environment. The enhanced wind shear associated with
the surface low would only further contribute to strong dynamics
and provide an environment supportive of all modes of severe
weather across the area. The strong front will move through the
area by the pre-dawn hours Sunday morning with a reinforcing cold
front approaching the area from the northwest later in the
afternoon.
Unsettled conditions with ongoing showers and some storms may
persist into the early morning hours Saturday. Outflow boundaries
from previous convection are expected across the area and could
help act as low-level focal points for new convection as strong
warm air/positive moisture advection moves in from the south with
a potentially inland advancing coastal/marine boundary. Some
isentropic lift would be expected with such a feature and could
enhance shower/storm activity early in the day and this potential
could limit the northward extent of this richer low-level moisture
plume. Ultimately, smaller-scale processes not yet resolved will
contribute to the convective evolution through the rest of the
morning hours before the strong front nears from the west during
the afternoon hours. A forced line of thunderstorms with potential
more discrete development ahead of the line is possible and the
supercell tornado potential would be maximized with this activity
while QLCS tornadic activity is expected within the line of storms
due to high shear and expected sufficient buoyancy given no
widespread persistent cloud cover and precipitation occurring
through much of the morning hours. In addition to the tornado
risk, strong forcing aloft will support damaging wind risk that
will be maximized with the line of storms with gusty winds likely
exceeding wind advisory criteria even outside of convection
through the day Saturday. The presence of very cold air aloft will
result in steep lapse rates and will contribute to a large hail
threat across the area as well. By dawn on Sunday morning,
lingering showers with some thunderstorms will be moving through
the southeast third of the area where a low (15-35%) chance of
activity is forecast while drier air ushers into the state from
the west. Highs Saturday will range from the mid 70s north to
around 80 far south and southeast. Lows Saturday night will range
from the upper 40s far northwest to readings around 60 southeast.
BufordWX
Member
Very active weekend coming up.
Day 4 (Friday):
Day 5 (Saturday):
Day 6: (Sunday):
Day 4 (Friday):
Day 5 (Saturday):
Day 6: (Sunday):
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025
DAY5:
On Saturday, the upper cyclone over the Upper Midwest will lift
northeast into Ontario, but a larger-scale upper trough will remain
over the Plains. The Plains trough will intensify and spread east
toward the MS/OH Valleys. This will maintain the eastward
progression of a strongly forced line of convection from the Ohio
Valley south/southwest into the Deep South/central Gulf coast
vicinity through Saturday night. Portions of the Deep South into GA
may see multiple rounds of severe convection with a mix of both
supercell and QLCS storm modes potentially moving across the region,
posing a concern for damaging tornadoes and swaths of severe winds.
Man. Don’t think I’ve ever been in an extended 30% area before
SPC
“On Saturday, the upper cyclone over the Upper Midwest will lift northeast into Ontario, but a larger-scale upper trough will remain over the Plains. The Plains trough will intensify and spread east toward the MS/OH Valleys. This will maintain the eastward progression of a strongly forced line of convection from the Ohio Valley south/southwest into the Deep South/central Gulf coast vicinity through Saturday night. Portions of the Deep South into GA may see multiple rounds of severe convection with a mix of bothbsupercell and QLCS storm modes potentially moving across the region,
posing a concern for damaging tornadoes and swaths of severe winds.”
“On Saturday, the upper cyclone over the Upper Midwest will lift northeast into Ontario, but a larger-scale upper trough will remain over the Plains. The Plains trough will intensify and spread east toward the MS/OH Valleys. This will maintain the eastward progression of a strongly forced line of convection from the Ohio Valley south/southwest into the Deep South/central Gulf coast vicinity through Saturday night. Portions of the Deep South into GA may see multiple rounds of severe convection with a mix of bothbsupercell and QLCS storm modes potentially moving across the region,
posing a concern for damaging tornadoes and swaths of severe winds.”
Mahomeless
Member
When are we starting a thread for this weekend? If this was a NC snowstorm threat, there would have been a thread a week ago.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
45 hatched on day 5 is absolutely concerning at this range. I'm fearing this is our overdue outbreak this far east if this continues.
Family has a Softball Tourney in Buchanan GA Saturday early and then they are supposed to travel up to our son's Baseball Tourney to meet us in Chattanooga Saturday night. The tournaments are both still on as expect can get Saturday games in early before storms come in but watching closely worst time to have to sort out being separated and possible travel
Just a heads up we now have a dedicated thread for Friday-Sunday
JHS
Member
Hopefully this will NOT turn into GA and SC's version of April 16 2011. I'm afraid it just might though. A repeat of 3-28-1984 would be awful too. North Ga was hit hard with the Palm Sunday 1994 outbreak too and something like that is possible Sat AND Sun in GA and the Carolinas.
vsublazer
Member
This is most busy map that has been posted in a while.
It's kind of ridiculous looking tbh
BufordWX
Member
It is way way out there still, but the GEFS already showing a signal for a severe threat around the 22nd-25th timeframe.
This is a pattern that isn't going to allow for much rest. Very, very active jet bringing system after system. We'll likely see more of these strong storms with snow north and severe east and south. Feet of snow going to fall in the higher elevations out west. Later in the year, I bet you're going to see flooding concerns out there.