Psalm 148:8
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Did global models at one time only only ingest new data at 12 and 00?? Maybe that is what I’m remembering.
this is what I’m remembering..
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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
iGRXY
Member
The N/S energy that dropped down on the icon was significantly stronger this run
I think the key here is D5. We have mainly been looking at D7-D10 (or beyond).Folks have expressed various opinions regarding whether they like the Euro AI / don't like it. The published data over the last 3 winters have the GFS Graphcast and Euro AI as the top performing models at 500mb at Day 5. On the chart, AIFS is the Euro AI. HRES/IFS is the Euro
iGRXY
Member
iGRXY
Member
Yeah this run is significantly colder. Big incoming as long as it’s not suppressed pushing east
This run so far is way south then most guidance. Could just be the icon being the icon 
iGRXY
Member
It gets shredded but hey it’s completely opposite of the EURO/GFS
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
I honestly think, like many possible events for our general area, it will be hard to have a good sense of this one until 24-48 hours out. If we go back towards suppression it will be colder but precip will limited. If we continue to amp, see the great lakes low cutting off our cold air train, or see the southern jet pull north we rain. We're
trying to get something in between but then tiny changes on timing, pressure, placement, temp, etc, can make the whole difference for specific areas. Right now it's really hard to nail down a true trend because there is so much flipping from run to run. That shows small detail changes can have a big effect on what happens. The possibility is certainly there but, as usual, we need some things to go our way. There is certain to be some happy folks and some disappointed folks by next weekend. Stay tuned.
Homerun from the ICON. Keep it down there for at least 2 more days.
iGRXY
Member
we are either getting the miller b apps runner or a shredder. The middle ground is a winter storm.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
I still worry about a frozen shredder vs a storm missing to my NW
NCSNOW
Member
Where was the JMA at its last run. Out of curiousity?
Tsappfrog20
Member
Icon is a solid hit for NC
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
ICON
Icon looks like it sped the system up too which is a plus
Wow that's a big change for the ICON. Wonder if that's a sign of the 0z suite.
ICON Ensemble has a phenomenal look to it!
ICON dug the wave pretty deep into Arkansas and closed it off
iGRXY
Member
wow
Member
'bout time
WFFaithful
Member
Look at that beautiful high over the lakes
ICON Temps
NCSNOW
Member
Round 2 few days latter most likely. Seeing this possibility pop up on every op now. Nothing like shoveling the driveway and coming inside to track another storm
This is the closest look we’ve gotten to those older AI/Graphcast runs….ICON dug the wave pretty deep into Arkansas and closed it off
Branch
Member
Hug all day!
beanskip
Member
ICON surface temps dramatically warmer across Carolinas and Georgia as precip approaches.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
As to expect with the icon
the reason the icon was pretty muted is because the northern stream didn't contribute a lot, but this is basically exactly what i've been looking for for the last few days, for a weaker/faster version of this wave!
Tokenfreak
Member
Yeah doesn't look like much snow for most areas further south still...sigh.
iGRXY
Member
Maybe we still have old school magic left where you have a legit potential that goes to hell and a hand basket around day 5-8 before coming back.
beanskip
Member
Well I was talking vs the 12z ICON — 4-8 degrees warmer.
it isn't perfect though, the new orientation really digs in TX/NM now and that's what triggers height rises in the carolinas to beanskips point
dsaur
Member
Yep. Not everyone is going to be happy whatever happens. A board wide event is rare. Suppressed and I'm loving it and folks north of Atl not so much. Typically I watch Ala, Atl north, and Tenn and NC happy as clams while if I get anything, it covers half the drive, and maybe roofs for a few hours. Atl gets 5 inches and I get a half inch at the very end, and it evaporates in the high winds and brutal dry cold. I'm ready for a Macon bowling ball, only 75 miles further north this time, lol.