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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

rburrel2 said:
100%.

I think the Icon and CMC are lost with their depiction(because who would bet on those two scoring a win). We're probably down to two scenarios... either the cut off gets absorbed and we have a doozy, or it doesn't and we have no storm or possibly a weak overrunning event.
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I mean the 0z ICON and 0Z CMC bumped precip up north quite a bit compared to recent runs so that's encouraging. Definitely has protentional to be an overrunning event and those often overperform
 
beanskip said:
Old Man Skip checking in again -- please, please, please don't ignore surface temps. I can't tell you how many times snow-lovers tracking a storm have seen model runs with easily cold enough air and then just assumed that would hold. Or, super low dewpoints and assumed the wet bulb temps would be below freezing. Haven't seen the temp profiles on the 6z AIFS, but the writing was on the wall with the 0z run. GSP to CLT was either at or above freezing the entire time of precip.

That pesky, obnoxious, unwanted Great Lakes low is likely at least partially to blame -- it popped up on the 0z AIFS.
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Yup. How many times have you and I watched as the temp sat at 33 with the 950 right at 0 to +1..
argh
 
beanskip said:
Old Man Skip checking in again -- please, please, please don't ignore surface temps. I can't tell you how many times snow-lovers tracking a storm have seen model runs with easily cold enough air and then just assumed that would hold. Or, super low dewpoints and assumed the wet bulb temps would be below freezing. Haven't seen the temp profiles on the 6z AIFS, but the writing was on the wall with the 0z run. GSP to CLT was either at or above freezing the entire time of precip.

That pesky, obnoxious, unwanted Great Lakes low is likely at least partially to blame -- it popped up on the 0z AIFS.
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Did you see the same for RDU
 
Bigedd09 said:
Not sure if I trust the AI models yet. But I definitely don't trust the GFS either. I think a blend of option 1 and 2 would be best case scenario. I mean the storm this weakened is undergoing fairly significant changes and it's only 2 days out. LONG ways to go on this one
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UKMET and Euro consistency is my concern. My own opinion is the EC AI is terrible. I’ve tracked several storms with it and it’s not been impressive - very prone to massive oscillations.
 
1300m said:
UKMET and Euro consistency is my concern. My own opinion is the EC AI is terrible. I’ve tracked several storms with it and it’s not been impressive - very prone to massive oscillations.
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Yeah, we tend to love the model giving us the most sugar and trash the one and people that give us vinegar.
 
1300m said:
UKMET and Euro consistency is my concern. My own opinion is the EC AI is terrible. I’ve tracked several storms with it and it’s not been impressive - very prone to massive oscillations.
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Agreed. The biggest concern first and foremost to me is, is there actually a storm, and the Ukmet and Euro and the EPS say no not really. SW wave is held back too much (and trending worse overnight), which has been the issue from day one really. Until the Ukmet and Euro really cave and show a storm I've got to believe we likely don't have one yet. I'll worry about temps when a storm actually shows up consistently.

Unless somehow graphcast and AIFS somehow all of a sudden are great and superior models which I kinda doubt.
 
griteater said:
Last 4 GFS Graphcast runs

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At that range, that's not bad. We just need to keep the storm right now. In a couple of days we'll want to see the higher amounts show back up. This is a game of back and forth right now.
 
SnowNiner said:
Agreed. The biggest concern first and foremost to me is, is there actually a storm, and the Ukmet and Euro and the EPS say no not really. SW wave is held back too much (and trending worse overnight), which has been the issue from day one really. Until the Ukmet and Euro really cave and show a storm I've got to believe we likely don't have one yet. I'll worry about temps when a storm actually shows up consistently.

Unless somehow graphcast and AIFS somehow all of a sudden are great and superior models which I kinda doubt.
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The 00z euro has a weak storm and looks pretty dang good snow-wise considering it left the cut off behind. And temps are plenty cold enough for all snow for pretty much everyone.
 
rburrel2 said:
The 00z euro has a weak storm and looks pretty dang good snow-wise considering it left the cut off behind. And temps are plenty cold enough for all snow for pretty much everyone.
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Yeh at this point, I am pulling for the Euro. The over amped up stuff by the AI models and the GFS immediately has me concerned with temperature issues.
 
I am going to disregard the AI models right now and stick with OG's which are the GEFS & EPS.

If you look at both 06z GEFS & 00z EPS. You can tell that the misses are misses due to suppression. We aren't missing because of some over amped system. We are missing because there is no moisture. The hits on the GEFS for example are golden. They are either big storms that AREN'T overamped or light events with plenty of cold air (kinda like what the 00z Euro showed). There are like 1-2 in there that are warmer.

For now, I think we should take some light in knowing that we aren't getting ensemble support due to suppression and not due to over amping warm air issues.

That being said, we could easily fail with no storm and she never comes back to us. Like @rburrel2 says, the more concerning look if you dive deeper into it is STILL cold and dry.
gfs-ensemble-all-avg-se-precip_6hr_ptype_multimember_panel-6575200.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-se-precip_6hr_ptype_multimember_panel-6618400.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-se-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-6596800.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-se-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-6596800.png
 
i think the euro ai is my favorite solution simply because it moves the ull a little faster. its runs show stronger storms because the northern stream trough is able to scrape off some of the vorticity from the ull better than other models show. i am rooting for solutions that make that sucker weaker and quicker today.

amped worries... look at this point i'm way more worried about no storm. that's been our fail point the last few years and at this juncture i think having to worry about temps would be a luxury... let's not put the cart before the horse. this is also a background state that's hard for storms to "get more amplified" given the longwave pattern. there's no southeast ridge... there's a big blocking 50/50 low... what is the mechanism for something to get to amplified? the euro ai is spooky but i think it's moreso a function of the latitude it progs the phase at (similar to the 1/6 storm) and it moves laterally from there. keyword being laterally... it doesn't cut.

jim mora voice: "Cutting? Don't talk about—Cutting?! You kidding me? Cutting?! I just hope we can get a storm! Another storm!"

other mets more privy can correct me if i'm wrong but i think the whole point of using ai dark magic with these models is so it has a mechanism to learn from it's previous errors. maybe? anyway if the euro truly has a "leave the energy" bias you would think that how the euro ai is built would try to correct it. anyway it has an encouraging trend below. today i'm cautiously optimistic and we could yet see some big swings but this period is sneaking into the mid range a little faster than people realize.
ec-aifs_z500aNorm_us_fh132_trend (1).gif
 
Mitch West said:
I am going to disregard the AI models right now and stick with OG's which are the GEFS & EPS.

If you look at both 06z GEFS & 00z EPS. You can tell that the misses are misses due to suppression. We aren't missing because of some over amped system. We are missing because there is no moisture. The hits on the GEFS for example are golden. They are either big storms that AREN'T overamped or light events with plenty of cold air (kinda like what the 00z Euro showed). There are like 1-2 in there that are warmer.

For now, I think we should take some light in knowing that we aren't getting ensemble support due to suppression and not due to over amping warm air issues.

That being said, we could easily fail with no storm and she never comes back to us. Like @rburrel2 says, the more concerning look if you dive deeper into it is STILL cold and dry.
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Give me suppression at this stage EVERY SINGLE TIME.....we honestly couldn't be sitting any better 7 days out.
 
Mitch West said:
I am going to disregard the AI models right now and stick with OG's which are the GEFS & EPS.

If you look at both 06z GEFS & 00z EPS. You can tell that the misses are misses due to suppression. We aren't missing because of some over amped system. We are missing because there is no moisture. The hits on the GEFS for example are golden. They are either big storms that AREN'T overamped or light events with plenty of cold air (kinda like what the 00z Euro showed). There are like 1-2 in there that are warmer.

For now, I think we should take some light in knowing that we aren't getting ensemble support due to suppression and not due to over amping warm air issues.

That being said, we could easily fail with no storm and she never comes back to us. Like @rburrel2 says, the more concerning look if you dive deeper into it is STILL cold and dry.
View attachment 158987View attachment 158988

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This is a great point. I would be more concerned with what the AI and GFS are showing if there a bunch of ensemble members showing an over amped up solution and right now that is simply not the case.
 
Mitch West said:
I am going to disregard the AI models right now and stick with OG's which are the GEFS & EPS.

If you look at both 06z GEFS & 00z EPS. You can tell that the misses are misses due to suppression. We aren't missing because of some over amped system. We are missing because there is no moisture. The hits on the GEFS for example are golden. They are either big storms that AREN'T overamped or light events with plenty of cold air (kinda like what the 00z Euro showed). There are like 1-2 in there that are warmer.

For now, I think we should take some light in knowing that we aren't getting ensemble support due to suppression and not due to over amping warm air issues.

That being said, we could easily fail with no storm and she never comes back to us. Like @rburrel2 says, the more concerning look if you dive deeper into it is STILL cold and dry.
View attachment 158987View attachment 158988

View attachment 158985View attachment 158986
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Exactly. The ensembles aren't showing amped up members with some mixed in snow members giving us a nice mean. The snow mean in the ensembles is paltry, with the vast majority whiffs. I don't understand the concern for temp issues at this stage. If we get a storm, sure that's what I'm looking for next, but I just want a storm first.
 
D
weather bubba said:
The Euro is the most accurate mid range weather model according to statistics out there. If there is one model at a week out I would want in our camp it would be the Euro. Lets see if the other models trend towards the Euro solution during the next couple of days.
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Did the euro catch on to the eventual Virginia locale for the 1/6 first?
 
SnowNiner said:
Exactly. The ensembles aren't showing amped up members with some mixed in snow members giving us a nice mean. The snow mean in the ensembles is paltry, with the vast majority whiffs. I don't understand the concern for temp issues at this stage. If we get a storm, sure that's what I'm looking for next, but I just want a storm first.
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concern for temps is valid if you're strictly looking at 2m temp trend. however the reason this has eroded though is that the arctic air associated with the shortwave dropping down is now in baja
 
ILMRoss said:
i think the euro ai is my favorite solution simply because it moves the ull a little faster. its runs show stronger storms because the northern stream trough is able to scrape off some of the vorticity from the ull better than other models show. i am rooting for solutions that make that sucker weaker and quicker today.

amped worries... look at this point i'm way more worried about no storm. that's been our fail point the last few years and at this juncture i think having to worry about temps would be a luxury... let's not put the cart before the horse. this is also a background state that's hard for storms to "get more amplified" given the longwave pattern. there's no southeast ridge... there's a big blocking 50/50 low... what is the mechanism for something to get to amplified? the euro ai is spooky but i think it's moreso a function of the latitude it progs the phase at (similar to the 1/6 storm) and it moves laterally from there. keyword being laterally... it doesn't cut.

jim mora voice: "Cutting? Don't talk about—Cutting?! You kidding me? Cutting?! I just hope we can get a storm! Another storm!"

other mets more privy can correct me if i'm wrong but i think the whole point of using ai dark magic with these models is so it has a mechanism to learn from it's previous errors. maybe? anyway if the euro truly has a "leave the energy" bias you would think that how the euro ai is built would try to correct it. anyway it has an encouraging trend below. today i'm cautiously optimistic and we could yet see some big swings but this period is sneaking into the mid range a little faster than people realize.
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You bring up a great point about what causes these lows to get amped up in the Gulf and the fact that right now we don’t have a 500mb setup that would favor it. I think it’s been so long since we’ve been in this kind of set up with an actual 50/50 low and no SER that some of us have forgotten what happens with it
 
Personally, I can relate with both sides (storm and cold). No need to worry about snow if there’s no storm. But if you’re in the Deep South, no need to worry about the storm if a bunch of solutions are amped up with no cold high to the north. Both are important
 
SnowNiner said:
I'm curious what does that imply? We stay dry due to the lack of phasing the baja low? Or potential overrunning?
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Maybe some light precip streaming west to east across the south, but with no phase with the Baja low, and no wave amplitude along the east coast, it’s a weak system. But hey, they make forecast adjustments all the time, just like we do in here. Long way to go
 
Chazwin said:
You bring up a great point about what causes these lows to get amped up in the Gulf and the fact that right now we don’t have a 500mb setup that would favor it. I think it’s been so long since we’ve been in this kind of set up with an actual 50/50 low and no SER that some of us have forgotten what happens with it
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Wouldn't a more southern track be likely with a 50/50 that strong an with the nao very negitive?
 
ILMRoss said:
i think the euro ai is my favorite solution simply because it moves the ull a little faster. its runs show stronger storms because the northern stream trough is able to scrape off some of the vorticity from the ull better than other models show. i am rooting for solutions that make that sucker weaker and quicker today.

amped worries... look at this point i'm way more worried about no storm. that's been our fail point the last few years and at this juncture i think having to worry about temps would be a luxury... let's not put the cart before the horse. this is also a background state that's hard for storms to "get more amplified" given the longwave pattern. there's no southeast ridge... there's a big blocking 50/50 low... what is the mechanism for something to get to amplified? the euro ai is spooky but i think it's moreso a function of the latitude it progs the phase at (similar to the 1/6 storm) and it moves laterally from there. keyword being laterally... it doesn't cut.

jim mora voice: "Cutting? Don't talk about—Cutting?! You kidding me? Cutting?! I just hope we can get a storm! Another storm!"

other mets more privy can correct me if i'm wrong but i think the whole point of using ai dark magic with these models is so it has a mechanism to learn from it's previous errors. maybe? anyway if the euro truly has a "leave the energy" bias you would think that how the euro ai is built would try to correct it. anyway it has an encouraging trend below. today i'm cautiously optimistic and we could yet see some big swings but this period is sneaking into the mid range a little faster than people realize.
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Many way more versed than I , yourself , but what I don’t understand is the suppression being shown with how (weakish) the cold is compared to the initial (long range) models.
 
Jan88 said:
Wouldn't a more southern track be likely with a 50/50 that strong a with the nao very negitive?
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It all comes down to the details in terms of where the features are located. You can have a healthy block, but if the 50/50 low is escaping to the NE too much and the storm wave is too amplified, you have trouble
 
2cd606ab7619c4ec2272318117d0f273.gif

We can work with that


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