Pattern December Dud 👀

[SD]

Might as well start this since we are bleeding over.

SER dominates, azaleas by Christmas

 

[KyloG]

Really...we starting off Dec with a full blown hemispheric ridge...my emotions can't handle patterns like this anymore.

 

[SD]

Really...we starting off Dec with a full blown hemispheric ridge...my emotions can't handle patterns like this anymore.

View attachment 154465

One of the most impressive runs I've seen in a long time

 

[BullCityWx]

It’s always good when Kylo is in the weather thread vs stock thread

 

[BullCityWx]

I’d term that as “not bad”

 

[GoDuke]

 

[Rain Cold]

It’s always good when Kylo is in the weather thread vs stock thread

But not in the whamby thread!

 

[1300m]

GFS certainly printing out some compelling fantasy maps. Classic step-down with snow pack building to the north and Greenland block holding. In a scenario such as this, that third wave in early December would be the one to watch IMO. For four years now, rarely has anything promising trended our way once we get inside model truncation, but it's a new winter and that's what we're here for!

 

[griteater]

Canadian trying to throw in a stronger -NAO into the pot of ingredients days 7-10

 

[1300m]

Canadian trying to throw in a stronger -NAO into the pot of ingredients days 7-10
View attachment 154473

I'm not ready to sound any alarms, but this is attention-getting for somewhere along the east coast if it continues.

 

[SD]

Woof

 

[Deleted member 609]

It ain’t nothin

 

[1300m]

WoofView attachment 154478

 

[Myfrotho704_]

All ens snow means are starting to increase across the SE now

 

[SD]

View attachment 154481

This evolution lives rent free

 

[SD]

I'm a little worried about the pac jet extending too far but if it does that period when the western ridge inches east would be a banger for at least cold if not more

 

[SD]

Eps mean highs are in the low 40s now from the 30th-3rd with modest warming into the upper 40s for the 4th and 5th. Impressive -15-18 departures

 

[BullCityWx]

I’d term that as “not bad”

View attachment 154468

Feels like wheels almost have traction

 

[Parker]

We are back!

 

[Ron Burgundy]

View attachment 154485
We are back!

Dang. Costco doesn’t have sleds in stock yet

 

[weatherfide]

Dang. Costco doesn’t have sleds in stock yet

May they never be!

 

[Carolina Jones]

It's gonna feel a lot like Christmas.

 

[JHS]

Hopefully I do not jinx this but if we have cold air in North America this winter, I think we score. It may not be snow, but I think we get something this year, especially in the CAD region all the way to ATL.

 

[griteater]

JMA gets jiggy with it days 5 to 8

 

[1300m]

Major TPV intrusion on the 12z EC AI. Lots of model eye candy being presented.

 

[Snowfan]

 

[Rain Cold]

JMA gets jiggy with it days 5 to 8
View attachment 154491

Man, look at that NAO!

 

[Rain Cold]

Dang. Costco doesn’t have sleds in stock yet

Kylo bought them all

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Major TPV intrusion on the 12z EC AI. Lots of model eye candy being presented.
View attachment 154492

Keep bringing it up but looks like dec 2018

 

[griteater]

The Spire likes it. Days 5-10

 

[SD]

Hopefully we can get the KMA on board

 

[griteater]

I'm a little worried about the pac jet extending too far but if it does that period when the western ridge inches east would be a banger for at least cold if not more

We kind of have a happy medium with the E Asia processes wanting to extend the jet while the MJO being in 4-5 favors a retracted jet. My guess is that if the MJO was in 7-8-1, we’d be in trouble (over extension and zonal flow).

 

[Stevo24]

The Spire likes it. Days 5-10
View attachment 154495

What exactly are we shooting for here. Just some nice cold or are we looking at other “possibilities” this early.

 

[Webberweather53]

WINTER ️

 

[griteater]

What exactly are we shooting for here. Just some nice cold or are we looking at other “possibilities” this early.

I don’t think it’s too early for both, but have to keep trending right and have some luck

 

[Downeastnc]

After Thanksgiving anything is possible....

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Interesting that the EPS is the farthest east with the overall trough. Normally the opposite

 

[1300m]

Interesting that the EPS is the farthest east with the overall trough. Normally the opposite View attachment 154498View attachment 154497View attachment 154499View attachment 154500View attachment 154501View attachment 154502

Considering the problems we've had over the past few years, I will consider that a positive sign.

 

[Rain Cold]

We kind of have a happy medium with the E Asia processes wanting to extend the jet while the MJO being in 4-5 favors a retracted jet. My guess is that if the MJO was in 7-8-1, we’d be in trouble (over extension and zonal flow).

First time I ever remember rooting for the MJO to be in 4-5

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Big if true