• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

ForsythSnow said:
That actually does a good job of not eroding the CAD, so I think I trust it more than the GFS.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I haven't looked deep into the physics of the Canadian Model but I've noticed it holds onto CAD domes a lot longer than either the NAM and the GFS. I'm presuming its parameter space was intended to mainly cover winter storms given it was created in Canada, so as long as the model can actually figure out the synoptic pattern (huge caveat), it's built to handle this kind of storm...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah, I haven't looked into the physics of the Canadian Model but I've noticed it holds onto CAD domes a lot longer than either the NAM and the GFS. I'm presuming its parameter space was intended to mainly cover winter storms given it was created in Canada, so as long as the model can actually figure out the synoptic pattern (huge caveat), it's built to handle this kind of storm...
Click to expand...
Even with this look the GFS is spitting out wouldn't CAD areas still be dealing with a huge ice storm verbatim
 
Lol wow what changes look at that cold press
ee1a64b96382d0afd5a79932f6ffb52c.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
This is where things start to blur. You have an original wave, that can produce an icy scenario for GA & The Carolinas. This second situation, is a whole other beast per 00z GFS.
 
The ice likely extends down farther than the map if the HP verifies as it looks and if it does...I bet this system is further south than this...
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Even with this look the GFS is spitting out wouldn't CAD areas still be dealing with a huge ice storm verbatim
Click to expand...

Most definitely. Again, the GFS has a non-local mixing scheme that's based on a paper written by Brown & Grant (1997) which is derived in part from large eddy simulations, and it's the inclusion of this scheme in the GFS that makes it a piece of crap in handling CAD. The entire premise of non-local mixing is built on the idea that advection of air parcels across large-distances by turbulent mixing from larger eddies is more effective than local mixing from smaller eddies. The entire Transilient turbulence theory gets very complicated in a hurry lol esp when you analyze ensemble-averaged eddy motions...
 
I don’t believe this solution anymore than the previous ones. This is what happens when you a volatile pattern with a fast pacific . We had new energy introduced out west this run as well. Another run , another solution . Mark it down this will not be the final outcome


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Man with two 1040ish highs like that, get ready to walk like a penguin. Absolute Classic CAD structure and signature. Forget thermal schemes as depicted verbatim...this looks like an absolute crush job inbound.
 
Them break off a piece of the vortex and put central and east conus in the deep freezer

Release the hounds lol

NC folks may need generator and some fuel...geez... Like I mentioned earlier I think N GA and maybe E AL get some ZR as well looking at HP setup
 
Brent said:
dusting for everyone lol
Click to expand...
RollTide18 said:
For craps and giggles, hasn't the GFS been shifting south with the winter weather?
Click to expand...
Yes but this is a completely different solution with the same result for some . If I were in NC I’d be pumped . We get different solutions but that area still gets something
 
Storm5 said:
Yes but this is a completely different solution with the same result for some . If I were in NC I’d be pumped . We get different solutions but that area still gets something
Click to expand...
Yeah the cad signal is honking away. I'll tell you what though, the DC folks despite multiple different runs are in the sweet spot. They get days and days of snow on this run
 
Goofy has pretty much all of the region staying below freezing on New Year's Eve.

Yeah no. Not happening. It's going to be cold but not that ridiculous.
 
Precip starts early Thursday morning in the Carolinas. Could be a long duration event .


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Storm5 said:
I don’t believe this solution anymore than the previous ones. This is what happens when you a volatile pattern with a fast pacific . We had new energy introduced out west this run as well. Another run , another solution . Mark it down this will not be the final outcome


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Yeah there's actually some merit to the pattern volatility that's observed in La Ninas, which is often more appreciable than is observed in El Ninos. I think a significant piece of the puzzle lies in the character of the tropical forcing in La Ninas which I discussed earlier today. I'll also add that when you're in a NINA, split flow is common particularly over western North America, and thus you often get confluent streams and phasing further east in our area of the world. These interactions between the northern and southern branches of the jet that are more common (generally speaking) are simply harder for the models to capture because you have to get multiple pieces correct to get the right solution w/ specific, individual storms, unlike in NINOs when the jet more often features a singular, predominant subtropical branch (although this isn't always true particularly the later in winter we get)...
http://southernwx.com/community/threads/december-make-analogs-relevant-again.289/live?page=201#post-68053
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top