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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

whatalife said:
Through 15 days! That’s just crazy...
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The signature shows, we could be dealing with Feb 2014's sleet fest that we were so lucky to get vs the ice if we are lucky. Let me investigate these members.
 
Shawn said:
Much more likely per the GEFS mean (I have not taken a look at the member MSLP locations yet). But If you're from a line Just North of Columbia, Over Towards Augusta, Macon, Even Coastal areas.. there's a problem here.
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I live right on the I 85 in Anderson county
 
whatalife said:
I’ll take sleet over straight freezing rain any day...What a GFES run...


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Well here are the members for day 10. There are a couple skewing the mean, thankfully (or not? idk), and e2 is a sleet fest:

gefs_snow_ens_nc_41.png
 
Shawn said:
Well here are the members for day 10. There are a couple skewing the mean, thankfully (or not? idk), and e2 is a sleet fest:

gefs_snow_ens_nc_41.png
Click to expand...

Yep. I’m thinking the first round is a major CAD event and there may be a second event that brings more of snow to the area but we’ll see. We are talking about the GEFS after all.


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E2 suppression city. This outcome would be ideal as the Carolinas would shatter records while the Mid Atlantic scores a couple backend scattered flurries
 
The shortwaves are in a data sparse area in the Pacific, give it a few more days for them to get sampled
 
I had to sneak back since the family is in bed... I'm gonna drop this right here and y'all carry on...

UKMET

IMG_3184.png


ECMWF Same Time

IMG_3183.png
 
Clem282340 said:
Thanks
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For now, here is about when they start coming out/frames. I'll make a page w/ the times that adjusts to daylight savings time later and link it in the top of the forum:

GFS (out to 384 hours)
0z: 10:30pm
6z: 4:30am
12z: 10:30am
18z: 4:30pm

NAM (out to 84 hours)
0z: 8:35pm
6z: 2:35am
12z: 8:35am
18z: 2:35pm

CMC (out to 180/240 hours)
0z: 12:00am
12z : 12:00pm

UKMET (out to 72/144 hours)
0z: 12:30am
12z: 12:30pm

ECMWF (EURO) (out to 240 hours)
0z: 1:30am
12z: 1:30pm

NOGAPS (out to 180 hours)
*00z = 2:00 AM
*12z = 2:00 PM

JMA (out to 144 hours)
*00z = Between 1:00 & 3:00 AM
*12z = Between 1:00 & 3:00 PM
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06z GFS with a colder, more southern track over C. Alabama and across C. GA. 500mb evolution with the wave is different. wintry for NC especially.

This should make 3 runs in a row with a South shift.
 
Another great run for the 6z GEFS. I'm interested to see how the clown maps compare to the 0z run I saw posted from overnight. I think that the 6z may be even better for some!
 
I didn't really like the Euro. Looked a little like a clipper with a transfer. Does not normally work out for peeps south of DC. Here is the EPS snow through New years eve though.
eps_acc_snow_conus_240.png
 
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