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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

1300m said:
That was headed for something big for us before it got screwy around hr 162. Ensembles may have some big dogs for NC.
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Looks like it was headed for a classic miller b type winter event here but with the strength of that high future runs may push this further south, I'm almost all in. Kudos for picking up on this days ago

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metwannabe said:
Looks like it was headed for a classic miller b type winter event here but with the strength of that high future runs may push this further south, I'm almost all in. Kudos for picking up on this days ago

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The center of the high isn't in a classic location but the surface pressures over the NE US and SE Canada are ridiculous, verbatim that is way more than sufficient to support a classic Miller B here esp given we'd be on the eastern flank of the high receiving nearly continuous northerly flow and replenishments of cold air... I should know better than to not take the GFS MSLP too seriously beyond day 5-6 but the Euro is backing it up this time...
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Whoa brrrr.... of course GFS factoring in snow pack I presume but that would kill some bugs
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The trend for this system is really apparent from the last couple of runs. We're talking hundreds of miles of southern shifts. Wouldn't be surprised if it's showing Atlanta with a significant ice storm in a couple of days. There's room for more suppression. I said a few days ago around New Years that if a low can move in tandem with a unusually strong high pressure system, someone is going to score big. I think it's going to be Tennessee and NC.
 
So I'm going full weenie here, but there is a chance of ice in CAD favored areas? I love ice.
 
SD said:
Man that was a great run. I like where this is headed

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Glad to have GFS op on board! Lol
But seriously, the confluence on that run was pretty amazing! I would suspect we could see even further trends south on upcoming runs, and could get us (you) especially, more snow than ice!
 
Torchtember said:
It's either going to trend more suppressed or trend back towards a cutter. Just need to lock on to a suppressed trend and this is a great start IMO and like Webber we have some action right on the heels of this one. 1-2 punch potential
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I definitely see the trend in the right direction, and the Euro was a great look. But I like baby steps for trends not giant leaps like the GFS just took if you know what im saying.
 
A few shortwaves get eject out of the southwestern US within 4-5 days of this storm near the end of the month on this GFS, if either one comes out during this timeframe, we could be looking at a classic southern slider or another CAD event right around or just after New Years, verbatim didn't see that play out on the GFS but it was close on more than one occasion. Timing will be crucial though because if they instead camp out for several days or retrograde into the NE Pacific, you can probably toss this out the window...
 
Webberweather53 said:
A few shortwaves get eject out of the southwestern US within 4-5 days of this storm near the end of the month on this GFS, if either one comes out during this timeframe, we could be looking at a classic southern slider or another CAD event right around or just after New Years, verbatim didn't see that play out on the GFS but it was close on more than one occasion. Timing will be crucial though because if they instead camp out for several days or retrograde into the NE Pacific, you can probably toss this out the window...
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Yeah, Eric. I noticed how the GFS was firing shortwaves like no tomorrow and thought we have to be very careful with the timing or it can all go by the wayside. Gotta try not to get caught up in GFS like you told us and look objectively.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Yeah if these trends hold up, Phil in Florida may be sitting pretty.
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Not a bad look at all. You can see the precip becoming more west to east than north to south implying to me a better chance of overrunning. If the S/W kicks in Webbs post earlier, we would have a cooler early December snowstorm on tap.
 
The ensembles say , slow your roll! Put down the Dom
 
NCSNOW said:
The op and espeacilly ens hold serve today, I vote its time for Brick to bring the Magic. I was all in before the 12z and now not turning back.
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Still 8 to 9 days away. I think it's too soon for a thread. Leave that up to the authority.
 
Why... when ops look bleak ens save us when ops look good ens screw us, oh the insanity of it all. Meh we use Larry's mulligan on today's 12z gefs

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metwannabe said:
Why... when ops look bleak ens save us when ops look good ens screw us, oh the insanity of it all. Meh we use Larry's mulligan on today's 12z gefs

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What was so bad about the ens?

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I bet once we get inside 5 days we will see this thing become more clear than usual for a winter storm. This doesn’t rely on phasing and this and that coming together to spark a bomb or anything like that. Just the timing of a short wave under some cold air. A remember the Jan 10-12, 2010 storm being very well modeled out 4-5 days for the same reason. I guess that could change but right now that’s what this looks like atm.
 
Chattownsnow said:
I bet once we get inside 5 days we will see this thing become more clear than usual for a winter storm. This doesn’t rely on phasing and this and that coming together to spark a bomb or anything like that. Just the timing of a short wave under some cold air. A remember the Jan 10-12, 2010 storm being very well modeled out 4-5 days for the same reason. I guess that could change but right now that’s what this looks like atm.
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I believe that was the Jan 09-10, 2011 storm you're referring...correct ?
 
The GFS actually headed in the right direction. Crazy confluence over the NE which supports more damming...thusly more south this run. If that's the general idea, then further south corrections will take place.

As a side note from the differences on the 00z GFS/EuRO tandem locally. EURO had a winter storm/ZR fest at KCHS at 32 ish while the GFS in the same time frame at KCHS at 76.
 
SD said:
What was so bad about the ens?

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Not horrible but best I can tell from College of Dupage site, which admittedly not the best, they just backed off on snow totals. Still storm signal but more NW solutions...

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Chattownsnow said:
I bet once we get inside 5 days we will see this thing become more clear than usual for a winter storm. This doesn’t rely on phasing and this and that coming together to spark a bomb or anything like that. Just the timing of a short wave under some cold air. A remember the Jan 10-12, 2010 storm being very well modeled out 4-5 days for the same reason. I guess that could change but right now that’s what this looks like atm.
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True, but let's remember that 2011 was a completely different setup than this one. More more variables to a setup like this.
 
metwannabe said:
Not horrible but best I can tell from College of Dupage site, which admittedly not the best, they just backed off on snow totals. Still storm signal but more NW solutions...

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I wouldnt worry about it too much atm, the 6z mean was heavily skewed by 2 members that dropped two feet of snow in northern NC and southern VA, more members actually showed some wintry precipitation this run...
6z GEFS
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12z GEFS
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The surface high entering the US on day 4 on this Euro run looks stronger already as it comes down out of western Canada and into the North Rockies & Upper Midwest... This is the same high that eventually parks to the north of our storm near the end of the month.
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Euro is running! :$
 
Webberweather53 said:
The surface high entering the US on day 4 on this Euro run looks stronger already as it comes down out of western Canada and into the North Rockies & Upper Midwest... This is the same high that eventually parks to the north of our storm near the end of the month.
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like the look already nice energy diving in from the rockies.... could be a big dog hit for some south....
 
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