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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Arcc said:
Depends. Is most of the ensembles showing a half inch to an inch, or most showing nothing with two showing twelve inches.
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There are a few that skew it like always but there are many hits. The signal is pretty clear
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Storm5 said:
There are a few that skew it like always but there are many hits. The signal is pretty clear
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There's a signal alright. The question is will it make it into a reasonable range and where and when the storm will be as always. Hoping it includes those who got no snow last time.
 
ItsClimateChange said:
Does Webber consider this before he starts spewing his warm weather bias agenda or has he not gotten that far in school yet. Hahaha! Sorry, couldn't help myself. I know banter thread. Carry on.
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Webb considers quite a lot; knows more than most any other 3 of the members here combined. Webb has been a resource and a teacher to this Curmudgeon since the old American days; don't always agree with his thoughts (but he's always kind enough to share them, even by PM if you take the time), and whether he and I agree on on a point or not his thoughts are always well reasoned and happen to beat me 98 to 2 on any analysis. So how's about appreciating his knowledge and insights, and if you do disagree with him (or anybody else here for that matter) do it with a sense of dignity and decorum, provide some sound reasoning, and leave the ad hominem out of the equation ...
Off the soap box ...
SD - hammer this if you feel it appropriate
Best!
Phil
 
Even if the outlier warm GFS solution verified verbatim could still be interesting for some IP/ZR in traditional CAD areas... If this storm at the end of the month doesn't necessarily come to fruition but drops a lot of snow to our north, if we can get at least one more storm after that in the 1st week of January with continued arctic airmasses moving into our neck of the woods over the fresh snow cover from that event presumably down to about the I-70 corridor I think we'd be in really good shape for a board wide event
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Yep, I am not going to get too excited until I see Webber get on-board.
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I'm not going to get excited until I see a consistent threat and I am sure many will agree with that. Hopefully we don't jump the gun on any threats or jump ship either. Pattern does look decent, but nothing is set in stone at the moment it seems to me.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Even if the outlier warm GFS solution verified verbatim could still be interesting for some IP/ZR in traditional CAD areas... If this storm at the end of the month doesn't necessarily come to fruition but drops a lot of snow to our north, if we can get at least one more storm after that in the 1st week of January with continued arctic airmasses moving into our neck of the woods over the fresh snow cover from that event presumably down to about the I-70 corridor I think we'd be in really good shape for a board wide event
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I busted on my call for something this week that I've had for a while, we just couldn't pull the trough out of the southwestern US quick enough and instead the broad southwesterly flow aloft just led to large scale warming as the shortwave lagged behind. We obviously know NWP esp the Euro is often too slow in the southwestern US because they oversimplify these systems (which inherently slows them down in the process), sometimes they really do decide to camp out there like we saw here. It's very difficult to gauge the evolution of cutoffs underneath burgeoning Rex Blocks over Western North America especially when there's few observations out in this area of the globe, the pattern itself is fickle, the heterogeneous terrain can be hard for coarse global NWP models to resolve and our best model sucks in this part of the world
 
Ya until we see any kind of consistency, you can use a coin flip to guess as to what's going to happen.

It won't bother me if it doesn't get super cold tbh after January 8th.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Ya until we see any kind of consistency, you can use a coin flip to guess as to what's going to happen.

It won't bother me if it doesn't get super cold tbh after January 8th.
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Biggest problem with what we have currently is all the transitioning going on, plus the PAC region is loaded with bundles of energy. Doesn't help when each run resolves this differently, which one it tries to key on...leads to a butterfly effect that just leads to vastly different longer range outcomes.
 
You know, last winter when we were looking at both the GFS models it seemed obvious the old one was better to me...other than resolution so I was surprised they went with it. That being said, The euro is flopping around like a pancake this year too.

I am also disappointed we are back to day 9 again for the next threat and it is a little different that the euro is dr yes on this one for now.

Still hoping for some kind of Christmas late bloomer too.
 
Just as long as we don’t torch this run . Not that it matters. Goofus is always going to be Goofus w/each 6hr run.


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I honestly don't have a problem with it not being super cold either. It actually being cold on Christmas is a win compared to recently.
 
Big changes also with 0Z CMC out to 180.
0Z run Vs 12Z where it cut the system towards Lakes.
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Potential after christmas storm energy maybe looking better and less cutter like. but it's early in the run.
 
Models picking up on dominating cold push!
 
Now we just need that shortwave to come on down from nw through rockies and ride west to east under height field. Aka euro like.
 
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