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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Shawn said:
ecmwf_ptype_nc_41.png
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What's the hours before this look like if you don't mind showing?
 
Robert West said:
If this was the solution, then it would seem like it would be a brief changeover for us.
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No. More moisture would get going. But it doesn't matter as it's a 10 day solution that will trend NW and screw a lot of people at the least.
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
Actually, if you look @ the Day 10 Euro.. we could see some wintry weather as far south as Columbia,SC (Midlands) on the backside with the wedge in place!!
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This doesn't look like a wedge. Looks more like a cold air chasing precip sort of deal. Or not enough cold air one.
 
Despite this storm at the end of the run, much of the run is warmer in the SE US than the 0Z Euro in the 6-10. That was also the case for the 12Z GFS. Therefore, I'm not a fan of these two 12Z operational runs.
 
I'd do anything to get another Feb. 2014 storm here in the Midlands. Of course I hate the ice storm that caused so much damage in the Southern Midlands. But man that was a fun storm to cover and learn off of. 3 inches of sleet, an inch of snow, and a half inch of ice was insane.
 
GaWx said:
Despite this storm at the end of the run, much of the run is warmer in the SE US than the 0Z Euro in the 6-10. That was also the case for the 12Z GFS. Therefore, I'm not a fan of these two 12Z operational runs.
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Get the moisture first worry about temps later Larry ❄️❄️❄️❄️
 
1300m said:
Based on just this, RDU west should be all frozen.

Edit: SC would be a tougher call, but clearly the ECMWF is not handling the wedge right. Don't get caught up in the murky details this far out, this is merely showing there is a strong signal for a southern storm to mingle with cold air!
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Nice to see the Euro come on board with the storm signal, too. I think the trend the last two days has been very positive for a winter storm here near the end of the month and first of the new year.
 
1300m said:
I agree, actually and was just being conservative haha. But right, if our dew points are already below freezing at that time, they will only go lower as the high builds in further. It's actually a very wintry look - one of about 20 looks we'll see between now and potential go time!
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Yep! I know the intensity of the cold has waxed and waned as we have moved forward in time, but I like how we continue to see abundant high pressure to the north and a strong storm signal to the south. The window is certainly open....
 
1300m said:
I agree, actually and was just being conservative haha. But right, if our dew points are already below freezing at that time, they will only go lower as the high builds in further. It's actually a very wintry look - one of about 20 looks we'll see between now and potential go time!
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Yes, people panicking way too fast on that without looking at what's going on besides the rain/snow map!
 
JB riding the Euro today!! Yesterday, he was riding the GFS !! Lol
 
To Larry's point, this was not a very cold run at the time of the storm. And looking at the ptypes, it looks like for much of the precip to turn to snow, it took the atmosphere to wetbulb down and cool.
1300m said:
Agreed. In terms of a snowpack with a high to our north tandem, this is one of the better setups we've seen in the last 3 or 4 years. If we can get any help with keeping the wave suppressed, there is good potential for a southern winter storm here.
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That's my hope, that we can pull more of a Miller A/B hybrid by keeping the low suppressed. I'm also concerned about keeping the polar vortex where it's modeled for the next 10 days. Always worried about cold air. Always.
 
Can anyone tell me how to get to the P-type runs on weather.us?...I've seemed to have lost my way. lol
 
1300m said:
Euro also continues it's rock-steady forecast for the MJO. If it's wrong, at least it was consistent ;)

ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif


Also...

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Hmmm.. Doesn't look that torchy in January after all! That 29th -3rd period looks interesting, really wish we could get the colder air back on the models!
 
Shawn said:
So, with all these model biases, what keeps them for being fixed? I have seen changelogs of fixes, some minor, but then there are some things that are just permanent it seems. Are some of the issues part of the model's core that if munked with, they will break other main parts?

As a computer guy/programmer, I know sometimes fixing a bug will introduce lots of problems in the end, so I'd assume the same here?
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Yea pretty much as packfan said fixing this issue in the model makes it better at CAD then screws with a lot of other things in the model and verification is generally worse overall which is why they won't change it. Dr Lackmann here at state runs an in house version of the NAM with a different convective paramtertization which resolves the mixing layer depth problem and this it's much more realistic with CAD
 
Just arrived in Bakersfield on the edge of the Mohave Desert and holy crap it's cold af winds are gusting to take force and temps are barely above 50. It hasn't rained here in months and what do ya know it's starting to rain right as I got off the plane. Definitely an experience to go thru a sandstorm and see massive tumbleweeds everywhere. Plus there is going to be some snow tonight in the mountains so I should at least be able to see it tomorrow once this storm system passes... Even snow from a distance in your peripheral view is better than nothing at all I guess
 
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SoutheastRidge said:
FFC mentioning the possibility of some light snow late Christmas Eve into Christmas morning across North GA.
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Sounds like they are concentrating on the mountains only since they said far north GA.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

However, another round of wet weather can be expected Friday
through Sunday along with areas of fog. It will even be possible
for a brief change over to light snow over far north Georgia
Sunday night.
 
Euro continues to look increasingly lackluster with this cold shot after Christmas and the upstream MSLP looks meh, if we keep it up, this wintry threat near the end of the month could also go by the wayside as our "threats" have done so the past several days. The weaker 50-50 low along and just offshore the Canadian Maritimes is partially to blame...
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