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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

WeatherWatch said:
I observe weather models every single day. It's a must, cause it helps with looking for trends. I would recommend not to look for trends beyond 5-7 days, cause most likely it's a waste of time.
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I think many look at LR charts and ride an emotional roller coaster. I agree that looking to that data for specific details is foolhardy. But I do think it’s possible to pick up on trends, especially if you’re familiar with model biases and particularly if the atmosphere is of a specific background state. The trend toward a strong -EPO, for example, is a recent example. But your point about relying too heavily on LR guidance is well-taken, subject to a couple of strategically implemented and experienced-based caveats. :)
 
Euro looks good to keep the cold around toward the end of its run. 6z GFS goes back to a +PNA. Who knows...this might be one of those years where we see the atmosphere just defy the typical and keep allowing cold intrusions into our part of the world. Or maybe it’ll slap us in the face with Nina Clint in a few weeks! :(
 
Well, the 6z GEFS has below normal temperatures for most of the eastern 2/3 of the country from Christmas day through the end of the run. You have to like our chances of getting winter weather during that 10 day period.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Somebody wake up SD and Metwannabe!! Crush job on Jan 3rd!! 6z GFS 384 hour, total crushage!!
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At least the GFS keeps showing fantasy snow this year, haven't even done that last couple of years...so at this rate we should cash in about 2 years from now. Baby steps

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Webberweather53 said:
This change to a much warmer pattern over the eastern US has been consistently moving up in the Euro weeklies for the past few weeks and is about to get inside week 3-4... It's funny how many will look at the models and trust them when it shows a solution they want (even if its a few weeks or so out) then completely disregard if their solution is just as legitimate but depicts a lot of warmth...
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Everyone does that. Lol
 
the snowfall mean on the 00Z GEFS through day 16 was a significant jump up for pretty much everyone on the board.
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but then of course the 06 GEFS was a significant step back. Basically the GFS is useless
 
the means on the EPS are far more consistent and less enthused than the GEFS. Don't get me wrong though the signal is fairly strong for some kind of storm with potentially wintry elements for someone on these boards at this lead time on the GEFS and the EPS. My point is just that the OP runs are not worth getting worked up over, one way or the other.
 
I think the storm signal has been pretty strong and consistent for late next week into the new year. Those ensembles look great. Most of them have snow here, and looks like 5 of them are big dogs.
 
The over reaction on most weather boards to every operational run, be they good or bad, is almost like clockwork. We wait for every op run with bated breath but should really just wait for the ensembles where things generally don't jump around so much and is a better indicator of trends. Now sometimes the op scores a coup and gets it right, but guessing which one that will be is the problem, especially with the GFS. If you want a little peace of mind and less variability, rely more on what the GEFS and the EPS are showing, especially when they disagree with the operational. This is not a rant on my part, just a reminder of lessons we have learned over the years that we sometimes forget.
 
looking at the EPS, the snowfall potential is north of here for the storm of interest, and delayed, more so than GEFS advertises. If you wanted to take into account the bias of the EURO to hold back energy in the southwest too long, it would seem we would have far more hits than the EPS actually prints out as the storm would roll through with more cold air in place. The GEFS as you can see has a lot more deep south hits. It tends to move things along too quickly in the southern flow over all. The storm in question would then have more cold air further south to play with. The mean of the GEFS members, I would think, is because of this. Of course that's a dangerous assumption to make and 8-9 days away is a long ways out to draw conclusions. Simply, it seems we have something very interesting to watch.
 
WeatherWatch said:
3 weekend forecast? Ahhhh, that makes me want to scream! You can't have an accurate forecast for the next 3 weeks! Maybe an preliminarily outlook, but not a forecast.
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That’s what he does he is a long range forecaster. His forecasts are more accurate than a lot of people’s short range forecasts that get posted on this site ......


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I have my doubts that system after Christmas will be a SE US winter storm. Yes, there could be some ice along and east of the APPs. The GEFS and EPS have a ridge over the SE US which is obviously going to make the system cut. Do y'all realize that the high pressure that builds in after the arctic front could make it over the western Atlantic before the next system kicks out? If that happens, as we know, that will decrease the chances of a winter storm. It's still a good ways out, there is nothing guaranteed at this time. Any responsible weather forecaster knows better not to put out a 3 weekend forecast knowing well that so many things can change. I'm more interested in the system after the system after Christmas.
 
im ready for about a slightly sub 1000 mb to ride up the apps.... sweet for my area... i would call it a winter then get ready for the severe weather.... make me a happy camper...
 
The arctic front looks a little slower through 54.
Edit: Never mind, it looks a little faster through 66.
 
WeatherWatch said:
I have my doubts that system after Christmas will be a SE US winter storm. Yes, there could be some ice along and east of the APPs. The GEFS and EPS have a ridge over the SE US which is obviously going to make the system cut. Do y'all realize that the high pressure that builds in after the arctic front could make it over the western Atlantic before the next system kicks out? If that happens, as we know, that will decrease the chances of a winter storm. It's still a good ways out, there is nothing guaranteed at this time. Any responsible weather forecaster knows better not to put out a 3 weekend forecast knowing well that so many things can change. I'm more interested in the system after the system after Christmas.
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Lol you do realize that this isn’t a warm pattern correct ??? Higher heights don’t always correlate to warm temps this is a good setup for the upper south and tennessee valley with a pressing front and energy kicking out of the SW. So you say it’s not ok for people to forecast the LR but your interested in a system that’s after christmas and after next weekends system . Ok...........
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Storm5 said:
Lol you do realize that this isn’t a warm pattern correct ??? Higher heights don’t always correlate to warm temps this is a good setup for the upper south and tennessee valley with a pressing front and energy kicking out of the SW. So you say it’s not ok for people to forecast the LR but your interested in a system that’s after christmas and after next weekends system . Ok...........
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pretty sure he meant for his area charlie.... georgia and further se area
 
Storm5 said:
Lol you do realize that this isn’t a warm pattern correct ??? Higher heights don’t always correlate to warm temps this is a good setup for the upper south and tennessee valley with a pressing front and energy kicking out of the SW. So you say it’s not ok for people to forecast the LR but your interested in a system that’s after christmas and after next weekends system . Ok...........


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It's funny that some don't ever look or try to understand anything above 1,000 feet, but, like to prognosticate or wishcast.
 
No White Christmas unfortunately in the SE if the GFS run verifies. But it is cold though.
 
Ok let’s get back to the December discussion , I didn’t realize geography was so complicated. Maybe Brick can give us more lessons in the banter thread today
 
The system after Christmas does look better for the upper south/Ohio River/Ohio Valley. But, there's no guarantees for that area either at this time. There's no solid answer as of what's going to occur. Just for a good guess, upon of current modeling, the system after Christmas, I'd give area's south of the Ohio Valley a 15% chance at a winter storm. Ohio Valley, a 30% chance. Odds could increase/decrease as the time frame comes closer.
 
1300m said:
More Greenland ridging at 120 compared to 06z hopefully that trend continues. Should help suppress flow later...

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Uggh! Western ridge is flatter, lower heights in the NE, icy set up right there!
 
Storm5 said:
Incoming changes at H5 this run


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Yeah, warmer! It's a webberish solution! We're losing it, it's about to cutter torch, then cool down!
 
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