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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

That’s a big winter storm late next week into the weekend . It’s what the gefs has been honking about


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I've noticed before that intense cold shots moderate 95% of the time of the models, but there's usually a period right before where they start trending colder once again. I wouldn't count out at least mid 20's for lows throughout the region just yet.
 
We'll see a better handle of what that system does after Christmas by this Friday/Saturday. But, as of now, I do see the chance at CAD for some during that event. Subject to change.
 
nearly below zero on the GFS here New Years Eve

:weenie:

coldest day ever in Dallas on the GFS New Years Eve, never been a single digit high :p
 
Intriguing look no doubt, good cold press and storm moving in. GFS wants to raise heights in SE by digging energy SW, but would expect this storm to trend further south next few days if it’s features and high pressure strength is anywhere in the ballpark. Should be fun to watch!
 
The one positive of this run is that the signal persists for something to happen after Christmas. I'm honestly not expecting my area to be the benefactor of such an event, but it's beyond exciting to at least appear to be entering a brief period of high winter weather probabilities.
 
Snowpack lovers rejoice.. may you not moderate any arctic intrusions in January:
gfs_asnow_us_41.png
 
Here is ukmet at hour 144. No additional frames past this or precip maps. Based off this 500mb heights overlay it looks like post Christmas system possible coming on shore quicker with slp over N NM moving S/SE with 1044 high pressing south. Don't know where this would end up or what temps look like ahead of it.
35804e9931e6dc972c2cbd55e76ecdff.gif


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CentralGAColdFront said:
The one positive of this run is that the signal persists for something to happen after Christmas. I'm honestly not expecting my area to be the benefactor of such an event, but it's beyond exciting to at least appear to be entering a brief period of high winter weather probabilities.
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It's subject to change
1) The storm system could cut, and the SE US get 0 chance at any frozen precip.
2) Everything could shift south, if that were to occur, higher chance at frozen precip for the SE US.
3) The high pressure suppresses moisture, and it would be dry and cold.
At this time, I would not say that it appears we'll be entering a brief period of high winter weather probabilities. However, it could be brief, or a longer duration of winter weather. Best answer right now, it could turn out either way.
 
I struggle to understand how and why folks that watch the weather and computer model output every day, get excited, shocked or disappointed when models change from run to run. If you like cold, look on the bright side, last week numerous models were showing a strong SER developing and holding beyond Christmas. Now it is pretty much a done deal that the pattern is going back to cold in the east prior to or around Christmas. Somebody tell me the last time you knew in the deep south you were going to have a below freezing high or a single digit low 7-10 days out. That is never a slam dunk for us. How deep a trough penetrates south and how long it holds is always a big question in the deep south. We should be happy that there is not trough stuck in the SW and a strong SER that will not budge.
 
Batman said:
I struggle to understand how and why folks that watch the weather and computer model output every day, get excited, shocked or disappointed when models change from run to run. If you like cold, look on the bright side, last week numerous models were showing were showing a strong SER developing and holding beyond Christmas. Now is pretty much a done deal that the pattern is going back to cold in the east prior to or around Christmas. Somebody tell me the last time you knew in the deep south you were going to have a below freezing high or a single digit low 7-10 days out. How deep a trough penetrates south and how long it holds is always a questions in the deep south. We should be happy that there is not trough stuck in the SW and a strong SER that will not budge.
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if no one did, it would be a boring weather board...
 
WeatherWatch said:
It's subject to change
1) The storm system could cut, and the SE US get 0 chance at any frozen precip.
2) Everything could shift south, if that were to occur, higher chance at frozen precip for the SE US.
3) The high pressure suppresses moisture, and it would be dry and cold.
At this time, I would not say that it appears we'll be entering a brief period of high winter weather probabilities. However, it could be brief, or a longer duration of winter weather. Best answer right now, it could turn out either way.
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I think that it goes without saying that all weather patterns have the potential to change, but that doesn't stop the fact that this storm has been showing up on multiple runs in some form or fashion. I think that it goes without saying that the entire situation could ultimately become a farce, but it's also fair to say that there's a better chance that someone gets frozen precipitation during this time period than others so far this meteorological winter. As to this being a brief opportunity, I think that it goes without saying that virtually everyone on this board knows what usually happens during the last half of NINA winters.
 
Batman said:
I struggle to understand how and why folks that watch the weather and computer model output every day, get excited, shocked or disappointed when models change from run to run. If you like cold, look on the bright side, last week numerous models were showing were showing a strong SER developing and holding beyond Christmas. Now is pretty much a done deal that the pattern is going back to cold in the east prior to or around Christmas. Somebody tell me the last time you knew in the deep south you were going to have a below freezing high or a single digit low 7-10 days out. How deep a trough penetrates south and how long it holds is always a questions in the deep south. We should be happy that there is not trough stuck in the SW and a strong SER that will not budge.
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I observe weather models every single day. It's a must, cause it helps with looking for trends. I would recommend not to look for trends beyond 5-7 days, cause most likely it's a waste of time.
 
CentralGAColdFront said:
I think that it goes without saying that all weather patterns have the potential to change, but that doesn't stop the fact that this storm has been showing up on multiple runs in some form or fashion. I think that it goes without saying that the entire situation could ultimately become a farce, but it's also fair to say that there's a better chance that someone gets frozen precipitation during this time period than others so far this meteorological winter. As to this being a brief opportunity, I think that it goes without saying that virtually everyone on this board knows what usually happens during the last half of NINA winters.
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I understand what you're saying. Just keep in mind that, when a storm system shows up over and over, and when the time period gets in the 5-7 day window, sometimes the system will go "poof" into thin air. Also, the Nina isn't at a full swing so we're not going to see the full typical affects of the Nina. The SSTs of the ENSO may start warming by February 2018. There is a lag with the correlation of the Nina by 3 to 4 months. So, we won't see the affects of the Nina till spring time.
 
first wave of cold not as far south... but the second push is setting up around 144... see what happens.
 
the old 10 day cold snap that will moderate by verification :p

No winter storm on the Euro here, just a little rain way before its cold enough

this run was very boring lol
 
Brent said:
the old 10 day cold snap that will moderate by verification :p

No winter storm on the Euro here, just a little rain way before its cold enough

this run was very boring lol
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U boring...hehehehe...sorry! Lmbo just hoping for a better run!
 
Brent said:
the old 10 day cold snap that will moderate by verification :p

No winter storm on the Euro here, just a little rain way before its cold enough

this run was very boring lol
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Telling you it’s like Groundhog Day, have not looked at a thing but let me guess, cold 10 days out and a big winter storm of course also 10 days out.
 
Usmeagle2005 said:
Telling you it’s like Groundhog Day, have not looked at a thing but let me guess, cold 10 days out and a big winter storm of course also 10 days out.
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Models are so stupid... I'm getting closer to just doing like they must have done in the old days and looking out the window for the weather :p

Or the weather rock that floats around social media every now and then
 
I made the mistake of telling everybody how cold it was going to be, and how I’m pretty sure we will at least see something wintery fall next week, nail in the coffin, now I have to tell them tomorrow never mind, wear a light jacket, you’ll be fine.
 
First snow missed me to the south, so why not the next one to the northeast?
modez.png
 
Yeah the cold shot in the medium range looked increasingly lackluster on this Euro run, however (as would be expected given the different surface parameterization in the GFS that attempts to overzealously decouple the surface and lower atmosphere) the ECMWF has adjusted less than the GFS.... The CMC and GFS really can't be trusted in handling this arctic airmass beyond day 5-6
 
The cold is looking lackluster at best now! :(
Thing is, I don't need it to be in the teens to get a snow or ice storm, just cold enough! That looks very doable next week!
 
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