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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Lord have mercy....Im having flashbacks of all the whining, moaning, and groaning from Talkweather. Webb is as smart of a person as you could want or have on a weather forum. If you dont want an educated opinion, why are you here? If you really arent here for that, I heard Amanda Hugandkiss was having a wishcast party down the road...join her. SMDH
 
Shawn said:
It's more of a case of during Winter, we have a limited set of months to have Wintry weather. We have the rest of the year to track warmth. Warmth isn't in a scarcity in the South, so we feel pressure to get it and Wintry weather in a small window compared.
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This right here
 
1300m said:
I know this thread has been derailed so I won't post anything else but I'll just say in my experience through the years that a passion for Meteorology leads one to do the things you mentioned earlier. I have always said I learned 80% of what I know about forecasting outside the classroom (M.S. Meteorology). There's an awful lot one can learn without the formal training but what separates the great ones is that ability to tie it all together when NWP isn't holding your hand. Those individuals are relatively rare in my opinion. It's always easy when you have model consensus and thirty others are predicting the same thing, but when someone can get it right -- using science -- when the answer isn't obvious, to me that's what it's all about.
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What an awesome post! Best wishes to you too, Webber. Here's to you being a beast in the business!
 
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DixieBlizzard said:
Can't disagree that a Met with his/her studies under their belt are equipped to do their job. That's the way it should be. I am a subject matter expert at what I do but I assume, Webber, you hang around with a bunch of hobbyist because when it gets down to it, you enjoy the banter about a subject that's not exclusive to degreed Mets, the weather. It is, after all, the common thread here. Just don't underestimate the hobbyist either. You can learn from them from past experiences what a text book doesn't teach.
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Exactly and that's one of the main reasons I hang out around here. Even though it doesn't seem like it, I really am a weather weenie at heart and I go absolutely nuts every time we get snow here, I love it just as much, if not more than you guys and it's one of the main reasons why I've become so driven to learn as much as I can about atmospheric science and similar topics, but I've learned to separate my love for cold/snow from forecast objectivity, which unfortunately many professional, degreed mets have still failed to master. You know the old saying that the easiest/most basic questions are often the toughest ones to answer and how you truly don't understand something until you've been able to explain it to a laymen in terms everyone can digest? You guys here put me on the spot and test me on a daily basis to give my opinion about a particular pattern, why a model is doing "x" when it should be doing "y", how does this pattern/model tend to evolve as verification approaches and/or out in time, how often does it snow/ice to "x" amount in x location, or what would it take to do "x" in my location, etc. and it makes me a better as a rising atmospheric scientist. Sure, my explanations can be convoluted, complicated, and rather long at times, but like all of you I'm constantly learning new things in this ever evolving field, and I may not understand it all right away myself, but rest assured I do everything I can to give my best professional-esque, unbiased opinion when needed.
 
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On a bright note this looks awesome. We are still clinging to D0, D1
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Webberweather53 said:
[

Exactly and that's one of the main reasons I hang out around here. Even though it doesn't seem like it, I really am a weather weenie at heart and I go absolutely nuts every time we get snow here, I love it just as much, if not more than you guys and it's one of the main reasons why I've become so driven to learn as much as I can about atmospheric science and similar topics, but I've learned to separate my love for cold/snow from forecast objectivity, which unfortunately many professional, degreed mets have still failed to master. You know the old saying that the easiest/most basic questions are often the toughest ones to answer and how you don't understand something until you've been able to explain it to a laymen in terms everyone can understand? You guys here put me on the spot and test me on a daily basis to give my opinion about a particular pattern, why a model is doing "x" when it should be doing "y", how does this pattern/model tend to evolve as verification approaches and/or out in time, how often does it snow/ice to "x" amount in x location, or what would it take to do "x" in my location, etc. and it makes me a better as a rising atmospheric scientist. Sure, my explanations can be convoluted, complicated, and rather long at times, but like all of you I'm constantly learning new things in this ever evolving field, and I may not understand it all right away myself, but rest assured I do everything I can to give my best professional-esque, unbiased opinion when needed.
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;):cool::p:D
Thanks, Webb!
 
Webberweather53 said:
[

Exactly and that's one of the main reasons I hang out around here. Even though it doesn't seem like it, I really am a weather weenie at heart and I go absolutely nuts every time we get snow here, I love it just as much, if not more than you guys and it's one of the main reasons why I've become so driven to learn as much as I can about atmospheric science and similar topics, but I've learned to separate my love for cold/snow from forecast objectivity, which unfortunately many professional, degreed mets have still failed to master. You know the old saying that the easiest/most basic questions are often the toughest ones to answer and how you don't understand something until you've been able to explain it to a laymen in terms everyone can understand? You guys here put me on the spot and test me on a daily basis to give my opinion about a particular pattern, why a model is doing "x" when it should be doing "y", how does this pattern/model tend to evolve as verification approaches and/or out in time, how often does it snow/ice to "x" amount in x location, or what would it take to do "x" in my location, etc. and it makes me a better as a rising atmospheric scientist. Sure, my explanations can be convoluted, complicated, and rather long at times, but like all of you I'm constantly learning new things in this ever evolving field, and I may not understand it all right away myself, but rest assured I do everything I can to give my best professional-esque, unbiased opinion when needed.
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I have full confidence that you will be successful. Love your passion my brother.
 
whatalife said:
Ok guys and gals...back to talking about December weather. I will either start deleting posts that do not pertain to this thread and/or moving them to the banter thread. Thanks!


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Please give it a break for a couple hours; folks are positive and this is good!
Merry Christmas spirit seems to have sprung ...
snowman.png
 
Classic NINA look to the precipitation distribution on the Euro weeklies through the end of January w/ above normal precipitation centered over the lower Ohio, Tennessee, and Mississippi Valleys. While there's more variance per capita in a La Nina winters (vs NINO winters), as we trudge deeper into the winter season and towards February, this configuration characterized by above normal precipitation over the OH/TN valley, flanked by relatively drier than normal weather towards the SE US coast and the North-Central Plains, usually becomes increasingly prevalent as the Northern Annular Mode finally settles in after undergoing somewhat intermittent, yet relatively steady and progressive intensification throughout the fall and early boreal winter...
eps_qpf_1104h_east_185.png
 
SD said:
On a bright note this looks awesome. We are still clinging to D0, D1
179bf03260c0483303a70860113e863b.jpg


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I wonder if instability will be high enough down here in upstate SC to get things going. That map looks interesting for this area . GSP did mention mini supercells in one of their AFD's.
 
Well for my area (near between ATL and Athens) speed sheer coupled with decent CAPE for December could look and mainly a "wind transport down" factor mainly, but cannot rule out some spin ups what with near 60 kts at 925 mb..
 
15 day CONUS snowfall anomalies from the EPS. Northern Rockies, Mid-Mississippi/Ohio Valleys, Great Lakes, and northeastern US are looking pretty good (as you'd expect in a NINA). Dismal snowfall totals progged for the western US & Canadian Rockies yet again, especially for the Sierra-Nevada. California certainly can't afford too many more years like this...

eps_tsnow_a_conus_61.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
15 day CONUS snowfall anomalies from the EPS. Northern Rockies, Mid-Mississippi/Ohio Valleys, Great Lakes, and northeastern US are looking pretty good (as you'd expect in a NINA). Dismal snowfall totals progged for the western US & Canadian Rockies yet again, especially for the Sierra-Nevada. California certainly can't afford too many more years like this...

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Thoughts on a weak Nino next winter

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I'll toss in my two cents, I think a lot of the griping is because since it's a Nina, we know that once the switch is turned off it's probably going to be over winter wise and to be honest I think most of the moaning is over this. It's nothing that a southeast wide winter storm can't fix imo :p.

I'd have been earlier but I wasn't feeling good at that moment...there's times my stomach really bothers me but not the point.
 
SD said:
On a bright note this looks awesome. We are still clinging to D0, D1
179bf03260c0483303a70860113e863b.jpg


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In snow accumulations, your at F-
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I'll toss in my two cents, I think a lot of the griping is because since it's a Nina, we know that once the switch is turned off it's probably going to be over winter wise and to be honest I think most of the moaning is over this. It's nothing that a southeast wide winter storm can't fix imo :p.

I'd have been earlier but I wasn't feeling good at that moment...there's times my stomach really bothers me but not the point.
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Some of the griping could also be due to the fact that parts of the southeast recently had a historic winter storm and some were left out.
 
SD said:
Thoughts on a weak Nino next winter

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The chances for a NINO are likely higher than they were this year with an easterly QBO which will make the Walker Cell more receptive to high frequency variability in thespring, coupled w/ the fact that we'll be closer to the spectral peak wrt NINO return frequency following a preceding NINO (2015-16), we certainly stand a chance but it's not a good one unless there's cooperation from sub-intraseasonal phenomena.
 
We had a classic case of downsloping off the Appalachians amidst west-northwesterly flow here in central North and South Carolina earlier today which is why many of us topped out in the low-mid 70s. Tomorrow will be anything but pleasant unfortunately unless you love cold rain...
Screen Shot 2017-12-19 at 7.37.40 PM.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Classic NINA look to the precipitation distribution on the Euro weeklies through the end of January w/ above normal precipitation centered over the lower Ohio, Tennessee, and Mississippi Valleys. While there's more variance per capita in a La Nina winters (vs NINO winters), as we trudge deeper into the winter season and towards February, this configuration characterized by above normal precipitation over the OH/TN valley, flanked by relatively drier than normal weather towards the SE US coast and the North-Central Plains, usually becomes increasingly prevalent as the Northern Annular Mode finally settles in after undergoing somewhat intermittent, yet relatively steady and progressive intensification throughout the fall and early boreal winter...
View attachment 2137
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The best that we can hope for, would be some blocking from time to time to off-set the Nina background state. This would give us a chance at some fun and games during an otherwise dismal second half of winter.
 
NoSnowATL said:
Good afternoon Webber, would this mean a more active Hurricane season coming up since the ATL is already so warm?
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It certainly could, esp considering the Atlantic really hasn't cooled off much (yet) from this NINA, we've also had a wetter than normal Sahel the last several years for the first time since the 1950s & 60s which will also help to boost the numbers a bit by providing stronger and more frequent African Easterly Waves which are attributable to about 90% of all Atlantic TC activity and a considerable portion of Northeastern Pacific activity as well. We also don't have any clue how ENSO will evolve by the upcoming summer and fall so it's still largely up in the air how active next season will be... I suspect the tropical Atlantic may cool more anomalously later in winter as the Icelandic vortex becomes increasingly well established and reinforces the North Atlantic Jet, Azores-Bermuda high, and the northeasterly trade winds on its equatorward side
 
SD said:
Certainly no shortage of cold east of the Rockies on the gefs
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Don't see how we would get cutters or runners with that look, but if there's a way, we can find it!
 
Webberweather53 said:
That's awesome I wish u the best of luck in your endeavors and if you ever need anything let me know haha. Btw even if you're not taking the class or aren't explicitly using the book I very highly recommend Gary Lackmann's synoptic meteorology textbook, it's one of my favorite books and I love how it bridges the gap between micro and mesoscale meteorology and climate dynamics (as you could probably imagine from its title).
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Yeah thanks! I️ might be taking Synoptics next fall will have to check schedule.. I’ll look into it dude! I️ gotta fix this issue tonight.. —> I️ .
 
Torchtember said:
I have a feeling Goofus and the Euro are going to bring the noise tonight. Burger Boom incoming. You heard it here first
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Could just be a boom from the stratospheric warming that's occurring!?
 
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