Wintry 3/10-13 Winter Weather

[Zander98al]

Trends over the next 12 hours are crucial. If that snow line creeps further faster or temps are just a few degrees colder we are talking about a pretty dang good snow event for Alabama. Those heavy rates will overcome the warm temps at the surface

 

[Sam Sparks]

I saw someone talking about cutting their grass...I'm gonna leave mine tall so the snow looks deeper ????

 

[SASQUATCH]

I saw someone talking about cutting their grass...I'm gonna leave mine tall so the snow looks deeper ????

Now we're talkin'

 

[Parker]

Somebody in Alabama is probably going to get a half a foot of snow. Wherever that heavy band sets up in Alabama will get some really good snow. Hrrr is really persistent on the I20 corridor

Zander, you need to back off the peace pipe. Ain’t no way anyone on I-20 in Alabama seeing 6 inches of snow. Setting yourself up for some major disappointment.

Let alone, anyone in Alabama.

 

[Zander98al]

Zander, you need to back off the peace pipe. Ain’t no way anyone on I-20 in Alabama seeing 6 inches of snow. Setting yourself up for some major disappointment.

Let alone, anyone in Alabama.

Hey dream hard enough it'll eventually happen ??. Haha nah, but there's always a surprise or two with winter systems I think there's a good possibility somebody could get half a foot.

 

[Flotown]

Yall are all putting clowns and weenies on my post but. Just watch somebody in the state is going to end up with half a foot.

I agree ,I belive somebody gets half foot but where?? Who knows

 

[malak05]

I agree ,I belive somebody gets half foot but where?? Who knows

Hey I'll go ahead and let you guys know it's gonna be me!

 

[Zander98al]

I'll let the models do the Talkin ?. Somebody is going to get a half a foot of snow.

 

[ATLwxfan]

Zander, you need to back off the peace pipe. Ain’t no way anyone on I-20 in Alabama seeing 6 inches of snow. Setting yourself up for some major disappointment.

Let alone, anyone in Alabama.

Probably a situation where you take the l most conservative mesoscale model. If it looks ridiculous, it probably is. The 3k NAM looks reasonable.


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[BullCityWx]

It's been looking less and less warm for tomorrows event here. The warmest temp I can find is 47 around 3-5AM. You have to think that could help a slightly quicker transition.

 

[Parker]

I'll let the models do the Talkin ?. Somebody is going to get a half a foot of snow.View attachment 115373

Newfound Gap

 

[Brent]

3 inches at the airport here but that March sun is already doing work clearly

 

[Zander98al]

Surface observations vs forecast surface observations.

 

[TheBatman]

3 inches at the airport here but that March sun is already doing work clearly

What was the forecast for??

 

[Zander98al]

Temps are about 2-3 degrees cooler than what's forecasted. Push forward is not as profound as forecasted, maybe a track further southeast a bit?

 

[SD]

I'll let the models do the Talkin ?. Somebody is going to get a half a foot of snow.View attachment 115373

I doubt it. There aren't a lot of qpf forecasts out there that showmost of the snow area getting .6 as snow. On top of that you will likely see a period of IP/low ratio snow as the transition occurs and you will see initial sfc temps in the 33-35 range which will hamper accumulation until you can get closer to freezing. I'll gladly admit I'm wrong of someone gets 6 inches and be happy for the person that sees it but I think you are looking at a more realistic upper end in the 3-4 range in the Florence to Athens region with a gradual decrease south

 

[Brent]

What was the forecast for??

2-3 pretty much so pretty close. Thought we might overperform but the real precip is clearly over

 

[olhausen]

That’s every storm this winter for the south

That‘s every storm in every winter in the south. There will be people who get way less then excepted and way more then expected tonight.

 

[Zander98al]

16z HRRR run. Forecasting 6 + inches in the Northeast quadrant of the state.

 

[shoalswxlady]

It like this if we get 1/2 inch to an inch it a win for us here. We really hadn't seen much of nothing this winter. I be happy with that.

 

[olhausen]

3 inches at the airport here but that March sun is already doing work clearly

Yep, shoveling snow on Saturday and mowing grass by Sunday. That’s how we do it in the south in March! ?

 

[SnowQueen]

Somebody in Alabama is probably going to get a half a foot of snow. Wherever that heavy band sets up in Alabama will get some really good snow. Hrrr is really persistent on the I20 corridor

This is what I love about March and snow in the South! Mid March is PERFECT for these type of random events! Best of luck. Not looking to see anything in CLT... but you never know!

 

[Falldreams]

Been watching this one all week…sitting in Highlands at 4,000ft just watching this thing come right to me.

 

[Webberweather53]

Nice to see you back Webb! Congrats on the snow

Thanks. Ended up with about 1-1.5” at the office. Only a trace on the other side of the mtns

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

16z HRRR run. Forecasting 6 + inches in the Northeast quadrant of the state.View attachment 115377

Remember it’s been 60-70+ degrees past couple weeks half of this would melt and anything that would stick most likely just on elevated surfaces .. I’m doubting a half a foot anywhere in Alabama

 

[Parker]

Euro accumulation vs depth from the 12z

 

[HSVweather]

 

[Mark]

 

[GaWx]

I wonder why Pivotal isn't showing this type of solution for the Atl area on the 6Z GFSView attachment 115343

I just called Maxar to talk about this and they believe there’s a low resolution issue with their snow maps, especially for this storm due to the sharp cutoff near ATL. So, I think it would be best if I don’t post any more of their snow maps for this storm. For example, their 12Z/6Z/0Z GFS runs (based on 10:1) all have downtown ATL at an absurd ~3-4” vs Tropical Tidbits having 0.1-0.2” on the 12Z (see below) and 0Z and 0.2-0.3” on the 6Z.

 

[Webberweather53]

The HRRR was closest to reality here by a long shot & even then this event was more impressive than the HRRR forecasts. Nearly all models greatly underestimated the amount of overrunning precip in the cold sector of the surface front, esp the 3km NAM (sounds familiar). Something to watch downstream

 

[HSVweather]

17Z HRRR below, 18Z will be running soon, it has good amounts for Huntsville and temps from midnight at 31 falling to 27 by 0300 as precip ends.

 

[Parker]

17Z HRRR below, 18Z will be running soon, it has good amounts for Huntsville and temps from midnight at 31 falling to 27 by 0300 as precip ends.
View attachment 115387

Wow, that’s bit more bullish down this way as well. Waiting for the latest SREF plumes. They are usually a good pre cursor to what the nam will show at 18z as well.

 

[cyclogent]

17z HRRR snow depth as of 6am Saturday morning. with the HRRR and RAP runs plus all the 12z guidance, it would make sense if FFC upgrades their TN border counties to a WSW.

 

[HSVweather]

Winds are impressive too, although this is 10M gust and inflated at 2AM. Actual will be lower but nonetheless some good wind.

 

[ChattaVOL]

Seems as the GFS/HRRR are handling this the best with what’s happening in Arkansas right now.


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[cyclogent]

Seems as the GFS/HRRR are handling this the best with what’s happening in Arkansas right now.


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and just like that, MRX just bumped up totals in the point forecasts.
2.8 for downtown CHA
3.1 at the airport
3.2 at Hamilton Place
3.6 in Ooltewah
3.6 in Cleveland

 

[HSVweather]

18Z HRRR through 3AM

 

[ChattaVOL]

and just like that, MRX just bumped up totals in the point forecasts.
2.8 for downtown CHA
3.1 at the airport
3.2 at Hamilton Place
3.6 in Ooltewah
3.6 in Cleveland

Haven’t allowed myself to get hyped for this storm yet.. it will hit me tonight.

Nothing can be worse then when you got a couple inches of snow and I got nothing


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[HSVweather]

18Z HRRR snow depth, radar, and temp at 6am

 

[WEATHERBOYROY]

For what its worth the sref snow mean continues to rise.....just out 15z.... over 3 inches