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Pattern December to Remember

December and Decemberer
 
cd2play said:
As long as we don't have a December from Hell. :)
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Unfortunately, I cannot guarantee that metephorically, meteorologically, or spirutally speaking. Man, that might be the seeds of a great sermon :)
 
Poimen said:
Unfortunately, I cannot guarantee that metephorically, meteorologically, or spirutally speaking. Man, that might be the seeds of a great sermon :)
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Do a sermon on the dangers of falling into model traps and how that leads to sin and violence . I can already hear it “ Be ware of the 384 hour gfs, like the devil it will whisper to your heart and promise you things . Do not fall into the trap “ then follow it with some Bible verse or some biblical story or somin.
 
Lickwx said:
Do a sermon on the dangers of falling into model traps and how that leads to sin and violence . I can already hear it “ Be ware of the 384 hour gfs, like the devil it will whisper to your heart and promise you things . Do not fall into the trap “ then follow it with some Bible verse or some biblical story or somin.
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The reprobate computer model runs. LOL
 
SD said:
Yep 2 runs between 0z and 0z and it went from promising to not good
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You need to change your avatar to a raindrop! Don’t get your hopes up
 
SD said:
Yep 2 runs between 0z and 0z and it went from promising to not good
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Wouldn’t trust much trends from 300+ hours out especially if they are just two runs .. only start believing once they enter medium range IMO .. certainly doesn’t bode well for cold but we can’t expect the whole winter to be cold this winter
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Wouldn’t trust much trends from 300+ hours out especially if they are just two runs .. only start believing once they enter medium range IMO .. certainly doesn’t bode well for cold but we can’t expect the whole winter to be cold this winter
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At least we’re getting a cold Nov. I’ll take cold whenever we can get it. Plus it is way too early to make a call on Dec even if the first part is mild.
By the way, nice wx presentation. I think you have a bright future.
 
GaWx said:
At least we’re getting a cold Nov. I’ll take cold whenever we can get it. Plus it is way too early to make a call on Dec even if the first part is mild.
By the way, nice wx presentation. I think you have a bright future.
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Dang man appreciate it for real ??
 
In 2017 during a similar weak to moderate La Niña and after a chilly period, much of the SE US was much warmer than normal 11/28-12/5. Then the bottom fell out and the next two months averaged solidly BN along with several historic winter storms. And that was with the MJO just leaving the warmer MC phases on 12/6/17 (see image below). Similarly, the MJO is predicted to be just leaving the MC on 12/6/21 (see image below)!

Today is only November 23rd. Models can now only semi-reliably see out through 12/5 or so. The point is that there’s a very long way to go. The MJO looks promising and very similar to 2017 at the same time during similar ENSO.

I wonder what was being said on wx forums about winter prospects 4 years ago today on 11/21/2017 a week ahead of the MA period of 11/28-12/5/2017. Were they similarly dominated by negativity?

MJO Dec of 2017: focus on where it was on 12/6/17



View attachment 95484

Now notice that the Euro is forecasting the MJO to be in a very similar position at the end of its run on 12/5/21:

View attachment 954856B2BE7EF-C58A-489C-B4AD-463197C515F9.gif8032F5A3-9FEC-4826-9AE7-FC052C12801C.gif
 
Ollie Williams said:
I mean, the Euro was entirely cold last week and everyone was excited. I was reading a post on 33andRain and the poster over there said that the models are having a difficult time forecasting the jet extension associated with the +EAMT. Typically this pattern leads to a -AO and -EPO in conjunction with the climatologically backed -QBO. I don't know much about the correlations in Eurasia, but maybe @Webberweather53 can weigh in on this?

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Yeah if we are going to really flip things the next 2-4 weeks are probably going to be it.
 
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