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Tropical Hurricane Gert

Yep, prepare for horror.
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ForsythSnow said:
Yep, prepare for horror.
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We are within the 210 hours of Uhh Ohh now
DO NOT LIKE ... :(
Though it is showing up north of 20N (hopefully it'll go poleward before hitting anyone)
Really need to watch the rest of the dynamics for a day or two before going into "Oh Sh*t" mode (pardon the French)
 
Anyone notice that each GFS run, this storm gets faster?
pcbjr said:
We are within the 210 hours of Uhh Ohh now
DO NOT LIKE ... :(
Though it is showing up north of 20N (hopefully it'll go poleward before hitting anyone)
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I agree on the uh oh part. I think 18Z either hits NC/SC or scrapes it with the trough coming in that suddenly appeared.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Anyone notice that each GFS run, this storm gets faster?

I agree on the uh oh part. I think 18Z either hits NC/SC or scrapes it with the trough coming in that suddenly appeared.
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Agree and that trough may be over-played ... dadgum thing on 18Z is getting too close ...
 
ForsythSnow said:
Anyone notice that each GFS run, this storm gets faster?

I agree on the uh oh part. I think 18Z either hits NC/SC or scrapes it with the trough coming in that suddenly appeared.
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The trougj has been there, just strengthens late his run

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It appears that I predicted the run by saying "How about a nice NC hurricane" :confused::oops: If this thing keeps speeding up, it could very well end up further south and hitting land. Scrapes the coast afterwards.
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ForsythSnow said:
It appears that I predicted the run by saying "How about a nice NC hurricane" :confused::oops: If this thing keeps speeding up, it could very well end up further south and hitting land. Scrapes the coast afterwards.
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It's honestly not that far away from hitting the Greater Antilles or being a monstrous Caribbean Cruiser, and knowing the canonical poleward GFS biases here, even if we take its intensity of 99L verbatim (which may be overdone) it still may not pass north of the Greater Antilles/PR. We shall see though, long ways to go...
 
Good news is nothing supports this idea of a monster. Even the gefs ensemble members that develop dont support this.

Speaking of the sub 940 that this run showed

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Webberweather53 said:
It's honestly not that far away from hitting the Greater Antilles or being a monstrous Caribbean Cruiser, and knowing the canonical poleward GFS biases here, even if we take its intensity of 99L verbatim (which may be overdone) it still may not pass north of the Greater Antilles/PR. We shall see though, long ways to go...
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Yep, if it is overdone, it would have less of a pull northward and could be further south. The UKMET has a track worth looking at as well, seeing it went into the Caribbean at 0Z. Plus, Invest 97L/90L was predicted by the GFS to go north initially when it was way back by Africa.
 
Storm5 said:
Good news is nothing supports this idea of a monster. Even the gefs ensemble members that develop dont support this.

Speaking of the sub 940 that this run showed

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Yeah I don't think we will see a repeat of this run at 00z (strength wise)
 
Storm5 said:
Good news is nothing supports this idea of a monster. Even the gefs ensemble members that develop dont support this.

The sub 940 that this run showed

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We also need to keep in mind here that the GFS ensemble members are run at a much lower resolution than the operational and therefore may not be able to adequately resolve the inner core of 99L whereas the full resolution GFS at/before 240 HR may be able to, thus even a weak hurricane/strong TS on a GEFS member doesnt carry the same meaning as the operational but i certainly agree that the GFS is potentially overdone here...
 
Webberweather53 said:
We also need to keep in mind here that the GFS ensemble members are run at a much lower resolution than the operational and therefore may not be able to adequately resolve the inner core of 99L whereas the full resolution GFS at/before 240 HR may be able to, thus even a weak hurricane/strong TS on a GEFS member doesnt carry the same meaning as the operational but i certainly agree that the GFS is potentially overdone here...
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The GFS has that bad habit of overdoing things. Sadly and strangely, I think the CMC is closer than any of the other models, except the UKMET, which the two seem to be on the same page intensity wise.
 
Storm5 said:
Good news is nothing supports this idea of a monster. Even the gefs ensemble members that develop dont support this.

Speaking of the sub 940 that this run showed

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Who cares...we're talking about fantasyland imo. Plus! I have no desire to see a hurricane unlike some on this board


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whatalife said:
I have no desire to see a hurricane unlike some on this board
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You and I need a beer, or whatever, and let the rest of 'em nail their roofs back on and run their chain saws, and then shower with cold water and sleep with no A/C; I'll enjoy watching but not being at that party ... you and I need a beer, or whatever ... just to enjoy the watch ... :cool:
 
pcbjr said:
You and I need a beer, or whatever, and let the rest of 'em nail their roofs back on and run their chain saws, and then shower with cold water and sleep with no A/C; I'll enjoy watching but not being at that party ... you and I need a beer, or whatever ... just to enjoy the watch ... :cool:
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I don't want to see a hurricane either. But...If this hurricane comes about like what we're seeing now on the models, probably cool air will come down after the cane is pushing out of the region.

So, that would be the good news.

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I can deal with a cat 1 maybe 2 if one would approach, but anything stronger needs to stay away. I went through Ivan and it was horrified when i lived in Pensacola. Theres nothing fun about a Cat 3/4 hurricane that takes everything you worked hard for and just destroys it.
 
accu35 said:
I can deal with a cat 1 maybe 2 if one would approach, but anything stronger needs to stay away. I went through Ivan and it was horrified when i lived in Pensacola. Theres nothing fun about a Cat 3/4 hurricane that takes everything you worked hard for and just destroys it.
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There is nothing fun about anything tropical with "Cat" on the front end of the name ... ;)
 
pcbjr said:
There is nothing fun about anything tropical with "Cat" on the front end of the name ... ;)
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Matthew's wind effects coming through my area last October were essentially Cat 1 and it turned this area into a huge mess due to numerous downed trees that took 3 months to clean up. Power was out a good week or so for many with the majority having at least a several day long outage. Mine was out around 4 days and that was enough to cause a lot of food to have to be thrown out.

The surge effects were probably more like a cat 2 and that was enough to cause many homes on lower ground to get extensive flooding. In addition to all of this, most folks including ourselves chose to evacuate the area due to a mandatory countywide order. That was a major headache though I wouldn't hesitate to do that again. Besides having to endure multiple days of no power, many of these folks were quite scared during the storm as they heard trees falling all around them for several hours and in some cases right on their homes. They were in many cases stuck in or near those homes for a couple of days due to numerous road blockages that didn't allow auto travel. Emergency services were not up to par as the evacuation order said would be the case for those ignoring the order. If someone had a medical emergency, good luck! If someone needed the police, good luck! A few of the folks who stayed behind undoubtedly wanted to experience this but many of them said they've had enough and won't do it again intentionally.
 
GaWx said:
Matthew's wind effects coming through my area last October were essentially Cat 1 and it turned this area into a huge mess due to numerous downed trees that took 3 months to clean up. Power was out a good week or so for many with the majority having at least a several day long outage. Mine was out around 4 days and that was enough to cause a lot of food to have to be thrown out.

The surge effects were probably more like a cat 2 and that was enough to cause many homes on lower ground to get extensive flooding. In addition to all of this, most folks including ourselves chose to evacuate the area due to a mandatory countywide order. That was a major headache though I wouldn't hesitate to do that again. Besides having to endure multiple days of no power, many of these folks were quite scared during the storm as they heard trees falling all around them for several hours and in some cases right on their homes. They were in many cases stuck in or near those homes for a couple of days due to numerous road blockages that didn't allow auto travel. Emergency services were not up to par as the evacuation order said would be the case for those ignoring the order. If someone had a medical emergency, good luck! If someone needed the police, good luck! A few of the folks who stayed behind undoubtedly wanted to experience this but many of them said they've had enough and won't do it again intentionally.
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So well said, Larry!
After 5, that's 5 too many on this end.
Wish the 'Canemongers would have to actually do it ... ;)
 
I'll start putting out discussion video's within a couple of days or so. We'll see how this tropical feature turns out over the weekend.

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I feel like we should have a decent idea by Saturday. The GFS has it at 1009 mb 6 hours from now. And then down to 1004 by saturday afternoon
 
0Z GFS hour 192 coming in further south than the 12Z and is near the 18Z position but with a stronger WAR.
 
Ridge is on steroids at 216 and storm is down to 937 mb again....
Meanwhile the CMC has a low in nearly the same spot but much weaker at 997 mb
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Ridge is on steroids at 216 and storm is down to 937 mb again....
Meanwhile the CMC has a low in nearly the same spot but much weaker at 997 mb
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Heading for a central FL hit on 8/13. Thank goodness this is still 9 days out/low probability that far out.

Edit: note that this (late 8/13 to early 8/14) is by a good bit the earliest threat of the last 4 GFS runs.
 
GaWx said:
Heading for a central FL hit on 8/13. Thank goodness this is still 9 days out/low probability that far out.

Edit: note that this (late 8/13 to early 8/14) is by a good bit the earliest threat of the last 4 GFS runs.
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Mainly due to the fact that it gets forced inland way south of previous runs. I have noticed the GFS has just been insistent on really building in heights around this time period. Looks like it evaded Florida and is headed for SC/GA border
 
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