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Tropical Hurricane Nana

ForsythSnow

ForsythSnow

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Since there are 4 waves, this is the one just entering the Caribbean


1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave are
gradually moving westward away from the Lesser Antilles. Although
the disturbance remains disorganized at this time, some gradual
development of this system is possible during the next several days
while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the Caribbean Sea.
Regardless of development, this system will continue to produce
gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across portions of the
Windward and Leeward Islands this morning before diminishing this
afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
 
What a wave lol but according to the wind data it is a wave...

A seemingly well-organized cluster of showers and thunderstorms
associated with a tropical wave is moving quickly westward across
the central Caribbean Sea, but satellite-derived wind data from a
few hours ago again showed that the system has not developed a
closed surface wind circulation.
GOES16_1km_ir_202009010535_10.50_19.00_-80.75_-66.75_ir1_ltng16_hgwy_warn_latlon_weathernerds.png
 
Tropical Storm Nana Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020
1205 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020

...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM NANA...

Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that the
potential tropical cyclone has become Tropical Storm Nana. The
maximum winds are estimated to be 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. A special advisory will be issued to update the forecast
within the hour.

SUMMARY OF 1205 PM AST...1605 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 77.7W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
$$
 
Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50
mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is
forecast during the next 48 hours, and Nana could become a
hurricane just prior to landfall on Thursday.
 
Up to 60 mph now. Wonder if there’s any chance it redevelops in the eastern Pacific after it crosses over Cnetral America?
 
Nana putting on a show before landfall those are some big mountains it will cross though if it does redevelop in the EPAC it would probably be a totally new system

...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES NANA
HAS BECOME A HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 87.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NE OF MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
 
superjames1992 said:
Up to 60 mph now. Wonder if there’s any chance it redevelops in the eastern Pacific after it crosses over Cnetral America?
Click to expand...
The mid-level remnants of Nana have reformed as Tropical Storm Julio in the Pacific,

Remnants of John Forecast Discussion

www.nhc.noaa.gov

46
WTPZ45 KNHC 052034
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Julio Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152020
400 PM CDT Sat Sep 05 2020

The mid-level remnants of Atlantic Hurricane Nana have moved
westward and west-northwestward off the southwestern coast of Mexico
while producing intermittent convection during the last few days. A
well-defined low formed about a day ago and ASCAT data indicates
that it has been producing tropical-storm-force winds for the past
12 h or so. During the past few hours there has also been an
increase in deep convection near the center of the low, and the most
recent Dvorak classification from TAFB was T-2.5, indicating that
the system is sufficiently well-organized to be considered a
tropical cyclone. Since the low-level center of Nana dissipated
inland over Central Atlantic, the new tropical storm is named Julio,
the tenth of the northern East Pacific season. The TAFB Dvorak
classification and 15Z ASCAT data are the basis for the 35 kt
initial intensity. Since the ASCAT explicitly showed 35 kt winds and
that instrument typically under-samples the maximum winds, it is
possible this intensity is a little conservative.

Most of the dynamical models do not acknowledge the existence of
tiny Julio in their initial conditions. Only the ECMWF and its
ensemble show a small well-defined low and it therefore is the
primary basis for the NHC track forecast. In general, Julio should
continue west-northwestward at a slower forward speed for the next
couple of days, steered by a mid-level ridge to the northeast. Julio
is forecast to become a shallow remnant low in a few days and should
slow down to a crawl before it dissipates early next week. Since the
forecast is based largely on one modeling system rather than the
typical NHC consensus approach, confidence in the track forecast is
fairly low.

The tropical storm will be affected by strong easterly wind shear
for the next day or two and little or no further strengthening is
likely during that time. Although the shear could decrease by early
next week, Julio will reach a drier and more stable environment in a
couple of days. It is therefore forecast to become a remnant low
within 60 h and dissipate shortly thereafter. The NHC forecast is
based on a blend of the ECMWF and the statistical DSHP and LGEM
models since the HWRF and the GFS-dependent HMON models do not
appear to have a good handle on the initial state of the system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 16.1N 102.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 16.9N 105.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 18.0N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 19.0N 109.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 19.9N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 20.5N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
Click to expand...
 
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