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Pattern May-hem

pcbjr said:
Actually, do not "like" but it's the only signal to send, 'cept - :(:mad:
Sheettz ....
Phil
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Winds were at least 50-70 miles an hr. Been a long while since I've seen winds like that. My tomato cages were FIRMLY anchored in the ground. SMH!


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Gotta love it when the one red blob pops up over your house
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I guess Charlie is enjoying his vacation, because i haven't heard from him in here in a while, lol.
 
15 day GFS rain totals look great!
 
Two weeks in a row Sampson County was hit hard without any kind of warning or even a watch. Once again the storms are worse when there is no watch and nothing when there is one. Been like this the past 5 years.
 
Don't tell Brick but there is a severe t-storm warning in NC without a watch being issued
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I did see SPC increased the risk to marginal for most of NC today so shouldn't be surprised to see a warning or two today as noted above.... plus SBCAPE seems decent but mid level lapse rates are meh.
 
The Euro has a rain hole over the Carolinas! Hope it's wrong!
 
Outflow boundary from the earlier storms along I95 probably going to kill the storms to the west

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Tarheel1 said:
The Euro has a rain hole over the Carolinas! Hope it's wrong!
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The GFS has a rain hole right over the upper SC and GA border area over to the GSP metro. Some areas in there only showing .25 over the next 16 days. I'm afraid the Monday storms set the tone for summer for our area. While most of us on here talk about how wet this summer is probably going to be, the 2 of us will be bone dry.
 
JHS said:
The GFS has a rain hole right over the upper SC and GA border area over to the GSP metro. Some areas in there only showing .25 over the next 16 days. I'm afraid the Monday storms set the tone for summer for our area. While most of us on here talk about how wet this summer is probably going to be, the 2 of us will be bone dry.
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FWIW - not much showing anywhere except FL for a week or so; 2 weeks out, with a grain of salt, looks OK (not great) for most (corrected my typo, which may have been Freudian - "mist" instead of "most" ... LOL) - dadgum rain ... :oops:
 
JHS said:
The GFS has a rain hole right over the upper SC and GA border area over to the GSP metro. Some areas in there only showing .25 over the next 16 days. I'm afraid the Monday storms set the tone for summer for our area. While most of us on here talk about how wet this summer is probably going to be, the 2 of us will be bone dry.
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We are still leaps and bounds ahead of last years disastrous summer of no rain for weeks and extreme heat. I think I heard this past drought update , had the least drought coverage since 2014, so that's awesome!
 
Tarheel1 said:
We are still leaps and bounds ahead of last years disastrous summer of no rain for weeks and extreme heat. I think I heard this past drought update , had the least drought coverage since 2014, so that's awesome!
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Well , Roberts FB post just crushed my dreams! Heading back torwards a cool, dry NW flow pattern, with very little rain chances ! :( , especially east of apps , in Carolinas
Say he hopes its short lived , but we kick ass at drought! I guess dry and below normal temps are better than nothing! :(
 
Tarheel1 said:
Well , Roberts FB post just crushed my dreams! Heading back torwards a cool, dry NW flow pattern, with very little rain chances ! :( , especially east of apps , in Carolinas
Say he hopes its short lived , but we kick ass at drought! I guess dry and below normal temps are better than nothing! :(
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We can do ok in a NW flow if the Lee trough gets active.

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SD said:
We can do ok in a NW flow if the Lee trough gets active.

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That's very true from Charlotte and Columbia and east, but the GSP metro gets extremely dry in a northwest flow because of downsloping. It can also make our area the hottest in all of the southeast because of the same reason.
 
May 2017 data is not in yet, but when it is, we'll compare it to 2016 and see how we're starting out versus last year!

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Arcc said:
Must be just the warmer night temps with the rain because the daytime temps areally not even comparable. It has been much cooler so far from someone who is outside all day every day.
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That is precisely why blanket "comparisons" in this realm can be very deceptive; very good observation! Once official data is released next month, I'll do a composite comparison using 12Z for both years (mid-day), and another using 0Z (middle of the night), and I'm betting daytime temps are far cooler this year versus last -- but data won't be available for composites for about 20 days.
 
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