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Pattern Marvelous March

GaWx said:
Most cold wx fans are going to like the late 12Z EPS 11-15 as it is more PNAey than the 0Z and certainly doesn't look warm.

Edit: If we were to ignore the cold bias, the 12Z EPS says no prolonged warmth through April 4+ with cool dominating over only isolated warm days.
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The temp range on the box and whisker plots of the eps from day 10 onward is crazy with some days as much as 40 degrees different between the warmest and coldest members.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
Today’s Happy Hour GFS isn’t nearly as happy a run as yesterday’s. It has no measurable snow in the SE except for the mountains along the NC/TN border. Therefore, knowing our SouthernWx granted powers, we toss.
 
GaWx said:
Today’s Happy Hour GFS isn’t nearly as happy a run as yesterday’s. It has no measurable snow in the SE except for the mountains along the NC/TN border. Therefore, knowing our SouthernWx granted powers, we toss.
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Larry,
Been tossin' all season; problem is, curb side pickup hasn't been by since sometime last year and the garbage has piled up ... drawing critters that only Tony can describe ...
:p
 
For once since like forever, we had a cloud free sky today. :cool:

The full moon as it set this morning was gorgeous too.
 
In regards to the storm everybody was hopeful about earlier this week: 06z Tuesday the 540 line overtook the entire state of SC. 06z today the 540 line never touches SC
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
So what do u look for if u want hail on these soundings and how do u know what type of hail or size it supports
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How big Cape is between -10C to -30C and how low freezing levels are, dry air aloft never hurts aswell, well most of the time anyways, also increased 0-8km bulk shear definitely helps hail growth, these storms today support small, but accumulating hail if you are under a strong core long enough, due to at least some CAPE and really low freezing levels combined with forcing and weak shear
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
How big Cape is between -10C to -30C and how low freezing levels are, dry air aloft never hurts aswell, well most of the time anyways, also increased 0-8km bulk shear definitely helps hail growth, these storms today support small, but accumulating hail if you are under a strong core long enough, due to at least some CAPE and really low freezing levels combined with forcing and weak shear
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I could see most of the storms dropping marble to penny size hail, maybe nickel if there is enough instability to work with. I always enjoy these types of storms, if you get under one they are a lot of fun and not destructive either.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
That was near my aunt’s house. I couldn’t even get in on that ??‍♂️
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Although it would be a memorable experience, are you sure you'd want to deal with the hassle of vehicular damage brought on by baseball-sized hail? I experienced it once here and all of the cars exposed to it had lots of very noticeable dents. It was a pain to deal with.
 
snowlover91 said:
I could see most of the storms dropping marble to penny size hail, maybe nickel if there is enough instability to work with. I always enjoy these types of storms, if you get under one they are a lot of fun and not destructive either.
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Big facts, sun is out here with barely a cloud in the sky so this should be a fun day, like you said these types of events are fun due to there lack of damage ??
 
Even DeeeeeTeeeee is robbed on the 12Z GFS with all snow accums further north in far NW VA and MD. I hope he can handle this. So, the typical north trend is in play. How much further north is the question.
 
Winter Storm Warnings out in Virgina. Additional 6”+ likely. Heavy snow today.
 
Looks like Fv3 is dangerously close for everyone on the board after the next storm... very steep trough looks like trouble for sever weather potential and winter storm potential ... yes cold bias and gfs has similar thing but it’s not as deep and continuous as the Fv3 it’ll be interesting to look at the euro and see if it has a steeper PNA ridge like the Fv3
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Where are you seeing warnings ? I dont see any on the NWS website.
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There are warning for the spine of the Blue Ridge Mts......

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1226 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2019

VAZ507-508-220030-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0008.190321T1626Z-190322T0200Z/
Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-
1226 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to six
inches.

* WHERE...Northern Virginia Blue Ridge and Central Virginia Blue
Ridge.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EDT this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The
hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency.

When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on
steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery,
increasing your risk of a fall and injury.

&&
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Looks like Fv3 is dangerously close for everyone on the board after the next storm... very steep trough looks like trouble for sever weather potential and winter storm potential ... yes cold bias and gfs has similar thing but it’s not as deep and continuous as the Fv3 it’ll be interesting to look at the euro and see if it has a steeper PNA ridge like the Fv3
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Hang it up! It's not snowing anymore in the se outside the mtns!
 
you Can ask for a cool little wx day and it not happen, but when you don’t ask for severe wx it will happen, unfortunately what was shaping up like a cool little wx day is fading, latest hrrr is boring
ACCC457A-61CF-4D44-8B22-D48E335D8B72.jpeg
 
No snow for DT on the Happy Hour GFS. He’s too far south again. This shows how much the snow has trended north on the models!
 
Holy -EPO on the Happy Hour GFS, Batman! Therefore, this run will not be tossed despite DT not getting snow and the coldest not fully plunging into the SE.
 
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looks interesting around Boone tonight. 32 and heavy precipitation incoming. Think some higher elevations will blow past 3” of snow with drifts after midnight
 
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