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Pattern Marvelous March

12z GFS ensembles thru March 6 FWIW
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snowlover91 said:
GEFS members are split between the suppressed idea and a stronger coastal like the UK shows.

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Yeah and 850's at least on the GFS plenty cold...... now let's hope it doesn't really amp up and go too much NW, don't see that as an issue..... who am I kidding that's always a possible issue.
This might be our last chance and I've seen much worse setups.
 
Thanks for posting those UK maps, they look about like what I expected... As is they would be a great track for Central NC and parts of Eastern NC but any NW shifts would probably warm things up too much... and considering we are 6 days out there is plenty of time for that to happen... Having said that the look of the GEFS members and UK is pretty good.
 
So, it's clear that once again, what looked like a favorable upper air pattern for wintry weather in the southeast has evolved in such a way as to create another rain delay, courtesy of another inland-running area of low pressure. The flow around the block out west has enabled cold air to be deposited into central and eastern Canada. Unfortunately, the core of the PV has migrated west out of southeastern Canada and into the Lakes region. This configuration does not allow cold high pressure to feed into the area and also provides a corridor for the low to run inland and up the coast. See the 12z GFS at 120 (using this model as most models now agree generally on the synoptic setup):

120.jpg

You have the block in western Canada, the PV lobe in central Canada, and our storm up off the coast of New England. Now, look at 144:

gfs_z500_mslp_namer_25.jpg

The storm has bombed out south of Greenland and a trough has been drawn into the east. The PV is sitting in eastern Canada again, and a stout high is building southeastward into the central US. You'll also see our next storm developing along the frontal zone that has been pushed too far off the coast to do produce any precipitation here.

I always like to see a cold high building in, but this is one way that at least eastern sections of the SE can score without it. Cold air has been dragged southward into the area and a system develops along the frontal zone. If the trend of the season continue, then the low has a decent chance of forming closer to the coast, as the PV up north and subsequent trough ends up farther west.

Right now, the temps look good at 850 and marginal at the surface. If there is precipitation, I would imagine temps would be lower downstairs.

gfs_T850_us_25.png

gfs_T2m_us_25.png

The bottom line is, and man I HATE saying this -- you know I do -- the first storm sets up the second one, and it enables a period within the pattern where a snowstorm can exist without a strong high to the north building in. It's March, and it's precarious, but it is doable, if we can get a little slack back with the trough, shunting the baroclinic zone too far offshore. Anyway, this is the period to watch. After this, ULL season is upon us, and well, good luck with all that.
 
snowlover91 said:
Fwiw here are the GEFS individual members, this is a snow only map and captures the coastal pretty well for NC.
View attachment 16793
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Looks like 8 of them have a good storm for NC. We are certainly on a roller coaster ride with the way the model runs have changed the last 48 hours. Now it looks like things are a little better than they were yesterday.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Looks like 8 of them have a good storm for NC. We are certainly on a roller coaster ride with the way the model runs have changed the last 48 hours. Now it looks like things are a little better than they were yesterday.
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Things look a little better for the 2nd wave than yesterday but the first wave has definitely trended the wrong way and will likely be a warm rain. Hopefully this 2nd wave can produce as it will likely be our last chance of the winter.
 
Rain Cold said:
So, it's clear that once again, what looked like a favorable upper air pattern for wintry weather in the southeast has evolved in such a way as to create another rain delay, courtesy of another inland-running area of low pressure. The flow around the block out west has enabled cold air to be deposited into central and eastern Canada. Unfortunately, the core of the PV has migrated west out of southeastern Canada and into the Lakes region. This configuration does not allow cold high pressure to feed into the area and also provides a corridor for the low to run inland and up the coast. See the 12z GFS at 120 (using this model as most models now agree generally on the synoptic setup):

View attachment 16790

You have the block in western Canada, the PV lobe in central Canada, and our storm up off the coast of New England. Now, look at 144:

View attachment 16791

The storm has bombed out south of Greenland and a trough has been drawn into the east. The PV is sitting in eastern Canada again, and a stout high is building southeastward into the central US. You'll also see our next storm developing along the frontal zone that has been pushed too far off the coast to do produce any precipitation here.

I always like to see a cold high building in, but this is one way that at least eastern sections of the SE can score without it. Cold air has been dragged southward into the area and a system develops along the frontal zone. If the trend of the season continue, then the low has a decent chance of forming closer to the coast, as the PV up north and subsequent trough ends up farther west.

Right now, the temps look good at 850 and marginal at the surface. If there is precipitation, I would imagine temps would be lower downstairs.

View attachment 16794

View attachment 16795

The bottom line is, and man I HATE saying this -- you know I do -- the first storm sets up the second one, and it enables a period within the pattern where a snowstorm can exist without a strong high to the north building in. It's March, and it's precarious, but it is doable, if we can get a little slack back with the trough, shunting the baroclinic zone too far offshore. Anyway, this is the period to watch. After this, ULL season is upon us, and well, good luck with all that.
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Great post and we really need that first one to bomb out as you said... a quasi 50/50 low can get it done. Although I feel like we've been waiting for that first system to setup the second system all winter but having the UK and Euro on our side is a plus, wish it was only 72 hours and not 6 days (but beats 10 days so we're getting there)
 
snowlover91 said:
Things look a little better for the 2nd wave than yesterday but the first wave has definitely trended the wrong way and will likely be a warm rain. Hopefully this 2nd wave can produce as it will likely be our last chance of the winter.
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Agreed this is our last good chance at accumulating snow in my opinion.
 
snowlover91 said:
Things look a little better for the 2nd wave than yesterday but the first wave has definitely trended the wrong way and will likely be a warm rain. Hopefully this 2nd wave can produce as it will likely be our last chance of the winter.
Click to expand...

Yes, the second wave, and I missed the nice little 2 to 3 inches the UK had. Now we just have to see if the models stay consistent or we have more wild swings.
 
Rain Cold said:
So, it's clear that once again, what looked like a favorable upper air pattern for wintry weather in the southeast has evolved in such a way as to create another rain delay, courtesy of another inland-running area of low pressure. The flow around the block out west has enabled cold air to be deposited into central and eastern Canada. Unfortunately, the core of the PV has migrated west out of southeastern Canada and into the Lakes region. This configuration does not allow cold high pressure to feed into the area and also provides a corridor for the low to run inland and up the coast. See the 12z GFS at 120 (using this model as most models now agree generally on the synoptic setup):

View attachment 16790

You have the block in western Canada, the PV lobe in central Canada, and our storm up off the coast of New England. Now, look at 144:

View attachment 16791

The storm has bombed out south of Greenland and a trough has been drawn into the east. The PV is sitting in eastern Canada again, and a stout high is building southeastward into the central US. You'll also see our next storm developing along the frontal zone that has been pushed too far off the coast to do produce any precipitation here.

I always like to see a cold high building in, but this is one way that at least eastern sections of the SE can score without it. Cold air has been dragged southward into the area and a system develops along the frontal zone. If the trend of the season continue, then the low has a decent chance of forming closer to the coast, as the PV up north and subsequent trough ends up farther west.

Right now, the temps look good at 850 and marginal at the surface. If there is precipitation, I would imagine temps would be lower downstairs.

View attachment 16794

View attachment 16795

The bottom line is, and man I HATE saying this -- you know I do -- the first storm sets up the second one, and it enables a period within the pattern where a snowstorm can exist without a strong high to the north building in. It's March, and it's precarious, but it is doable, if we can get a little slack back with the trough, shunting the baroclinic zone too far offshore. Anyway, this is the period to watch. After this, ULL season is upon us, and well, good luck with all that.
Click to expand...

It's very much a setup we can work w/, a coastal low being directly attached to a massive, positively tilted trough/attendant PV lobe (essentially a more mature version of an anafront) has been seen in cases like Feb 23-24 1989, Dec 29-31 1997, Jan 20 2009, Jan 28-29 2014, etc.
 
Storm5 said:
Yep whatever this is , is no doubt further SE this run
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Just needs some tweaking and it could work, still plenty of model cycles to go. Trying to be optimistic here.

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It would be nice to get a similar NW adjustment we saw in mid-late January when the last big PV lobe made a trip thru the Lakes except we've started off a little further NW this time

NCCWOP9077 said:
Just needs some tweaking and it could work, still plenty of model cycles to go. Trying to be optimistic here.

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156 HR is an eternity with a coastal low setup, don't have to look very far back in time to figure that one out.
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
The key will be its ensembles if they are further north west or not
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I don't think there's actually much of a key at this point, 7 days out, to what any model or ensemble suite is saying in relation to the details of a particular system, given the magnitude of the shifts we have seen all winter long at these leads across virtually every model suite.

The key really only boils down to this. At 7+ days out: Is there a broad signal for a storm? And does or can the pattern support wintry weather? In this case, the answer to both is YES. And in my humble opinion only, the current 7 day depiction is far, far, far better than seeing a favorably tracking southern slider or Gulf storm tracking right up off the coast giving snow to everyone. Because we absolutely know without a doubt, that that solution would end up as rain for all.
 
The North Pacific is about to undergo major reshuffling of the deck so to speak as it begins to effectively respond to tropical forcing changes upstream over the Indian Ocean and the big vortex over SE Canada and the associated arctic airmass with it will evacuate south-central Canada, leaving us with a pretty favorable pattern to get bowling-ball cut off upper level low as we approach the mid point in March.

I'm going to refrain from claiming (at least here in NC) that the last threat for the winter will be this coastal around March 6, especially in light of how the last 2 years in a row have produced a winter storm in association w/ an upper level low on March 11-12.

March 11-12 2017 NC Snowmap.png

March 12 2018 NC Snowmap.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
The North Pacific is about to undergo major reshuffling of the deck so to speak as it begins to effectively respond to tropical forcing changes upstream over the Indian Ocean and the big vortex over SE Canada and the associated arctic airmass with it will evacuate south-central Canada, leaving us with a pretty favorable pattern to get bowling-ball cut off upper level low as we approach the mid point in March.

I'm going to refrain from claiming (at least here in NC) that the last threat for the winter will be this coastal around March 6, especially in light of how the last 2 years in a row have produced a winter storm in association w/ an upper level low on March 11-12.

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I don’t want people to get the wrong idea here. I’m not really saying I think it’s probable we’d see a storm in this period but just given how deep and intense this air mass is going to be next week (one of the most intense in the conus ever at this time of the year), and knowing that these low level airmasses can take a while to get out of the way, even if we have stale, leftover cold air to work with, that could be sufficient to produce wintry weather if an upper low came calling as the entire pattern reshuffles later in the 2nd week of March.
 
If a coastal does form, which it looks like it will, i’d say the chances of it at least grazing the Carolinas is a pretty good bet. I think Web was alluding to the coastal in January where it was way further offshore at this lead and actually ended up getting showers to the coast of NC. This one is starting off in a much better position. Unless this look is completely lost in the next 48 hours it’s one that will need watched all the way in
 
GaWx said:
12Z Euro: hard freezes much of inland SE 3/6-7. @pcbjr a nice cold rain (40s) 3/5. KATL has a shot at 4 freezes in a row 3/4-7 after none in the area since 2/14!
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Hello GaWx,

Do you see anymore freezes after the 2nd week of March? The weeklies have seemed to cool for the middle and latter half of March. Lots in bloom already. I have seven acres of peaches that are in the pink bud stage.
 
Models are split with the 2nd wave, about half of them have it close enough for some precip to make it inland into NC/SC and the other half are dry. The Fv3, Euro and CMC are in the suppressed camp while the GFS, ICON and UK are in the stronger coastal group. With this system still 6 days out we will probably see some additional shifting around on models for the next 1-2 days until they come into better agreement. Having the UK show potential at least makes me feel better but I'd like to see the Euro come on board with some potential in the next day or two.
 
Last year I felt like we are at similar position for both Jan events and from here in they both trended better, the upper low dug further southwest. It seems like this year at this point we have gone the other way. Not a bad spot to be in if we get some luck.

2AC68B97-D0EB-48D4-B644-48194265A8D3.png
 
KyloG said:
Last year I felt like we are at similar position for both Jan events and from here in they both trended better, the upper low dug further southwest. It seems like this year at this point we have gone the other way. Not a bad spot to be in if we get some luck.

View attachment 16809
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I just looked at a comparison GIF and it seems that some ridging is wanting to develop in south Greenland aswell, slowly but it’s getting there and ridge in the west is trending a hair stronger, altho not much noticeable
 
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