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Pattern January thread part deux

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Storm5 said:
for this freaking out and canceling winter the 12z gefs looks nothing like the gfs op . and is actually very interesting days 8-12

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Winter cancelling is probably silly, for us less educated dummies! But here we are still hunting 8-12 day storms and that puts us into early Feb! A snipe hunt
 
Tarheel1 said:
Winter cancelling is probably silly, for us less educated dummies! But here we are still hunting 8-12 day storms and that puts us into early Feb! A snipe hunt
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it's the SE we are always hunting storms. People are canceling winter because they see random op runs that look bad or ensembles that hint at a warmup before we cool again . there is no reason to freak out or cancel winter . And know one is a dummy lol. people saying winter is over over a month early is nothing new. happens every year

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Storm5 said:
yep, winter cancel posts in January are nothing other than ignorant . I guess people love to troll over a wakcked out OP run and they clearly don't look at ensembles .

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Lol, I've had two deep snows down here from ULL's toward the end of March in the last 10 years. Cancelling winter before April 1st is just plain silly...that is if you just like looking at snow. Can't do anything with warm melty snow, but look at it. But it was there, twice in 3 years, and I looked at it :) I guess it's all it what satisfies the individual. I'd rather have two inches of sleet in Feb freeze down , than 8 inches of melting snow at the end of March, but I'll take both, because either is so rare, as must needs be enjoyed! T
 
Here in Birmingham back in 2009 we had a winter like this one with no snow and in the middle of march we had a ULL come thru and dropped 4 inches. Winter isnt done untl mid March Id say
 
I've seen snow in April, it went from thunder storms to heavy wet snow and some thunder snow. That doesn't happen to often though. I want to say this happened in 2004 I could be wrong. I know it was in the early 2000s.

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Storm5 said:
yep, winter cancel posts in January are nothing other than ignorant . I guess people love to troll over a wakcked out OP run and they clearly don't look at ensembles .

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i am sick of seeing those posted. It should result in a suspension until spring, lol
 
Stormlover said:
i am sick of seeing those posted. It should result in a suspension until spring, lol
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If nothing else, they belong in the Banter thread.
This Board is so refreshing and has so much to offer knowledge-wise - I wish posting-egos would appreciate that.

Now - back to weather :D
 
pcbjr said:
If nothing else, they belong in the Banter thread.
This Board is so refreshing and has so much to offer knowledge-wise - I wish posting-egos would appreciate that.

Now - back to weather :D
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I would agree... please keep it on topic and if you must lament about the warmth or think winter will never return then do so in the banter/venting thread. Thank you..... carry on

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nice 12z eps run. 2-3 day " warmer " period then headed right back into a colder pattern with a ridge bridge over top
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SimeonNC said:
The entire SE board on the other forum seems to be in winter cancel mode. :p
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Dude - That's why I moved over here (in part) - I still post over there a good bit, but the manners and objective thinking here are so much nicer/better/less full of self ...
 
lol, goofy tries again with a massive cutter bomb, this one doesn't phase though, I think.

I don't mind this overall look on the GFS, there's no winter storm and the system we've been looking at is even more suppressed but it's not bad IMO.
 
The winter cancel statement makes you sound like you have dominance over the weather. The "Winter canceled" statement is, so illogical. Let's be realistic and stop asking siri if winter is over.



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Looking at the 18z GFS ensemble, the ridge out west is a good placement. The ridge out in the Atlantic is what is causing the suppression. The ridge needs to be more north and west to allow the trough over the east to dip down more. Not too far north and west though, this would allow for suppression too.

As you go through the frames late month you can see that the ridge out in the Atlantic bulges to the north and west some. By the time it does, the 18z GFS has a low poping up out in the Atlantic. We may still get a storm during late month or even in early Feb. It just depends on the ridge out in the Atlantic.
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pcbjr said:
Dude - That's why I moved over here (in part) - I still post over there a good bit, but the manners and objective thinking here are so much nicer/better/less full of self ...
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There are few if any people here who are part of a "clique" who think they are God's gift to weather forecasting.

I like it this way. I'd rather lack a few "well known" posters than to deal with the crap.
 
Shawn said:
There are few if any people here who are part of a "clique" who think they are God's gift to weather forecasting.

I like it this way. I'd rather lack a few "well known" posters than to deal with the crap.
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I think you just said more eloquently than I what I just said ;)
Keep up the good work, folks!
 
CMC ensemble has more the look what we want to see. This would allow for less suppression. The ridge out in the Atlantic is more north and west (than the 18z GFS ensemble) changing the way the trough is over the east. Not just that, the trough out west is more stronger and more northward. This is defentily an overrunning look. Oh I love the CMC.
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Even if this upcoming cold period ends up only being a few days/transient, I certainly wouldn't declare "winter cancel" before we can see far enough into the future to even see one of the two most active periods for major winter storms in the SE US, the 2nd week into 3rd week of Feb. We can't see how 2/8+ will be.
 
Brick Tamland said:
It is a lot more laid back and less cliqueish here for sure. Some.folks there take this way too serious, and a couple of posters always look for the worse in any scenario. Also, a couple of mods there are hypocritical with they way they enforce rules and seem to be drunk on power, but let a couple of posters do nothing but troll because they are in the clique.
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:eek::rolleyes:o_O:oops::eek::D:p:mad::(;):)

NO BANTER!

lol.

Anyway guys, the Winter is not over. Sure things aren't "great" on some OP runs, but again, I'd rather chase a slight chance at an event than to be let down with a consistent event showing up that fails to materialize like the last one. At least in my yard.
 
The winter cancel stuff is just funny. Things can change quickly here. We can have a couple of days in the 70s just a week before getting a foot of snow.
 
Brick Tamland said:
The winter cancel stuff is just funny. Things can change quickly here. We can have a couple of days in the 70s just a week before getting a foot of snow.
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That's the kind of statements I want to read!

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According to weather.com, no real cold air through Feb 5. Hopefully we finally get some cold weather after Feb 5. Amazing how we go from 2 weeks of 20+ above normal to just "average" temps. Going to be hard to finish the winter even close to normal with that kind of pattern. This winter reminds me very much of the winter of 2011-12.
 
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I thought the "Winter Cancel" declarations would have come out if we had some bad runs today. Instead we just talked about how much we hate winter cancel. LOL

Nicer looking runs today. Seemed like pattern was reloading a bit toward the end of the run. Wouldn't be shocked if things get interesting around President's Day Weekend. I'd like to head up to Cataloochee to hit the slopes....er slope.


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SoutheastRidge said:
According to weather.com, no real cold air through Feb 5. Hopefully we finally get some cold weather after Feb 5. Amazing how we go from 2 weeks of 20+ above normal to just "average" temps. Going to be hard to finish the winter even close to normal with that kind of pattern. This winter reminds me very much of the winter of 2011-12.
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why on earth would anyone that knows about weather go by weather.com?o_O this is for Jan 28-Feb 3
610temp.new.gif
 
Models (being models and not human) have not begun to factor into their matrix the last 2 days worth of weather and what it might portend ... just sayin' - like the models still haven't figured out on a larger scale the October/November tropics
 
SoutheastRidge said:
According to weather.com, no real cold air through Feb 5. Hopefully we finally get some cold weather after Feb 5. Amazing how we go from 2 weeks of 20+ above normal to just "average" temps. Going to be hard to finish the winter even close to normal with that kind of pattern. This winter reminds me very much of the winter of 2011-12.
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See, there is your first mistake.... They never get it right..
 
Yeah, it may not seem THAT cold, but while it's run of the mill mid 40s to high 50s is below average to average climo wise for late January through February. I would say a typical midwinter high temp when it's not well below average is mid 40s-low 50s.
 
ATLwxfan said:
I thought the "Winter Cancel" declarations would have come out if we had some bad runs today. Instead we just talked about how much we hate winter cancel. LOL

Nicer looking runs today. Seemed like pattern was reloading a bit toward the end of the run. Wouldn't be shocked if things get interesting around President's Day Weekend. I'd like to head up to Cataloochee to hit the slopes....er slope.


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It's going to change in the next run but I'd be perfectly okay with what I've seen on the last two GFSes. It does moderate but its not as bad as it was looking. You can clearly see it trying to reload the pattern.

Now it may lead to no winter storms, but this option is better than endless days of 70+ to me. I've actually said that a perfect day to me in the winter if I can't have snow is a sunny day with temperatures in the low to mid 60s.
 
Stormlover said:
no, not only will that change, but he said no cold before Feb. 5...again, why anyone would believe weather.com that studies weather is amazing to me.
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I'm not disagreeing with you 1 bit (particularly about TWC, or generally otherwise) - but the next frame is nothing but a weekend computer generated map that is not as "pretty", and taking it a step further and recognizing the next frame, I humbly suggest, provides full disclosure - that's all ...
 
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pcbjr said:
I'm not disagreeing with you 1 bit - but the next frame of a weekend computer generated map is not as "pretty" and taking it a step further humbly suggest full disclosure and not snippets to fit a taste - that's all ...
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i was pointing out the lameness in believing weather.com that no cold weather would be around before feb 5, that's ALL, and here's another, the threat for way below normal temps jan 30 to feb 2 here from the CPC
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Stormlover said:
i was pointing out the lameness in believing weather.com that no cold weather would be around before feb 5, that's ALL, and here's another, the threat for way below normal temps jan 30 to feb 2 here from the CPC
16237391_1558641394163513_1858328133_n.jpg
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Gotcha! TWC - not defending it - CPC weekend with no human fingers on it - largely disregard it ...
Best!
Phil

PS - I'm the one who's been saying (elsewhere) since October that Feb is gonna be cold and wet - I'd love to see it happen btw!
 
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