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Pattern January thread part deux

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SoutheastRidge said:
Well we have about 3 1/2 weeks until winter is typically done here in the south. If we don't get anything by Feb 15, it's over 90% of the time.
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I'll just talk about major winter storms at Atlanta right here. Out of 39 major SN/IP at ATL, 27 occurred fully on or before 2/15. 12 occurred on 2/16+, which is nearly 30% of them.

I looked at major SN./IP at ATL during just weak La Nina or neutral ENSO. I found 17 of them. Out of those 17, 5 occurred 2/16+. Again nearly 30% of them.

Major ZR's are different : 27 of the 31 occurred before 2/16 leaving only 13% for them for 2/16+. All 4 post 2/15 were actually in March oddly enough. 3 of them were during neutral ENSO..

Major ZR's just during WLN or neutral: a whopping 22 of the 31. Of these 22, 3 occurred after 2/15 (14% of them)

In summary in terms of major ZR chances at ATL, I think Monsieur Carrollton is close. But in terms of major ATL SN/IP chances, he's too pessimistic as it is more like only 70% done, not 90%.
 
There's no sense in giving up on a major winter storm chance before, say, ~2/18. At ATL, there have been a whopping 12 of the 68 total major winter storms I could find occuring just during 2/10-18! That's 18% of them just during that 9 day period there! That 9 day period is only 8% of the days that I count from 12/2 through 3/25, the period of major ATL winter storms. So, the daily frequency of major winter storms during 2/10-18 there has been almost 3 times the daily frequency during the rest of the period 12/2-3/25!
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Well we have about 3 1/2 weeks until winter is typically done here in the south. If we don't get anything by Feb 15, it's over 90% of the time.
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I don't ever give up on winter until the second week of March has come and gone. Of course I'm farther north then most but I still wouldn't be putting a fork in winter a week before January has ended unless I was in north Florida.
 
GaWx said:
There's no sense in giving up on a major winter storm chance before, say, ~2/18. At ATL, there have been a whopping 12 of the 68 total major winter storms I could find occuring just during 2/10-18! That's 18% of them just during that 9 day period there! That 9 day period is only 8% of the days that I count from 12/2 through 3/25, the period of major ATL winter storms. So, the daily frequency of major winter storms during 2/10-18 there has been almost 3 times the daily frequency during the rest of the period 12/2-3/25!
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So when I said winter is done by 2/15 90% of the time, maybe I should have just said 2/19 instead ?
 
Is it even severe weather season ? It seems like it is. I wonder if all of this severe weather in January is a sign of what is to come in March and April ?
 
olhausen said:
I don't ever give up on winter until the second week of March has come and gone. Of course I'm farther north then most but I still wouldn't be putting a fork in winter a week before January has ended unless I was in north Florida.
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Honestly even an inch of snow wouldn't get me too excited right now. I wanna see a big dog, 6"+ snowstorm. I had 2.5" in early January, and anything less than that would be disappointing.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Honestly even an inch of snow wouldn't get me too excited right now. I wanna see a big dog, 6"+ snowstorm. I had 2.5" in early January, and anything less than that would be disappointing.
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Unfortunately, it has always seemed that if we get a second storm in the winter, with the exception of 2010/11, the pattern is big storm, small storm. Just the way I see it is that if we get something , we will have a small system, or we could get a once in a long time storm that is a big one. Who knows.
 
NorthGAWinterWx said:
Stick a fork in this system? We're not even in the 3-5 day window yet. I'm not worried about the suppressed look at this point in time. I've seen the models show a suppress look many of times. It seems like as we get closer and closer to the event, it loses the suppression. Now, if there was a strong Arctic high to the north cutting off the Gulf than yeah, I would be worried about the suppression.

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yeah, never fails to amaze me at the cliffjumpers
 
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I wonder what model TWC goes by ? According to them, I barely get below freezing through 2-04. Seasonal temps Jan 26-Feb 4.
 
NorthGAWinterWx said:
Stick a fork in this system? We're not even in the 3-5 day window yet. I'm not worried about the suppressed look at this point in time. I've seen the models show a suppress look many of times. It seems like as we get closer and closer to the event, it loses the suppression. Now, if there was a strong Arctic high to the north cutting off the Gulf than yeah, I would be worried about the suppression.

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To be fair to my comment...I never said I was sticking a fork in this system. I'm close and model agreement w/other factors suggest suppression maybe the right solution for this system. How suppressed only time will tell. I'm always hopeful I'm wrong and this system leads to a nice hit.


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SoutheastRidge said:
Honestly even an inch of snow wouldn't get me too excited right now. I wanna see a big dog, 6"+ snowstorm. I had 2.5" in early January, and anything less than that would be disappointing.
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I think next winter will be better.


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SoutheastRidge said:
Honestly even an inch of snow wouldn't get me too excited right now. I wanna see a big dog, 6"+ snowstorm. I had 2.5" in early January, and anything less than that would be disappointing.
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so you already hit your season average and you are not happy?

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At least this winter the mid Atlantic and northeast ain't getting much snow either.


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I don't see a reason to really worry that much. I like where we are headed, I doubt we have to go through another early spring period like we are in until...spring
 
The one thing I will say I don't like is the brevity of the SSW and the models taking the PV back poleward by day 16. The displacement of the PV should really help out in the meantime and with the warm area over Siberia into Ak at 10mb we may see the the atmosphere below that attempt to couple and cause a nice EPO/PNA....lots of questions, some potential.
 
-EPO looks like it's in the books. But will that be enough? Time will tell. The PNA forecasts are all over the place so a + is not a foregone conclusion by any means. Time will tell but here's crossed fingers. Knock on wood. Have a beer until ...
 
The GFS is going to try again with this system around the same time period but I'm already seeing no reason for it to really come north. Maybe a bit.
 
Yep, it's juicy but it's dropping south again. If there's going to be any real move with this one, it's coming tomorrow or Monday (just like I said happened with Matthew). Otherwise it might not be to be.
 
SD said:
I don't see a reason to really worry that much. I like where we are headed, I doubt we have to go through another early spring period like we are in until...spring
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Or after Feb 5
 
Now the GFS is going to try again with the same look precip wise and now that this pattern has fully moderated, I bet it survives, and if it's delayed a bit, we may even see a massive phase (with what I'm seeing out of the west).
 
That monster clipper that is coming out of Canada looks like it's throwing a monkey wrench into this pattern and making it more transient than straight western ridge-eastern trough.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Now the GFS is going to try again with the same look precip wise and now that this pattern has fully moderated, I bet it survives, and if it's delayed a bit, we may even see a massive phase (with what I'm seeing out of the west).
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Or maybe not. So it's not cold that is keeping the system from coming up, it's something else.
 
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