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Pattern January thread part deux

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Something makes an attempt at developing at 252-264 but it's so cold it just gets crushed. That may end up being a where have I seen this before but this pattern is cold enough that this is very much a possibility.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Something makes an attempt at developing at 252-264 but it's so cold it just gets crushed. That may end up being a where have I seen this before but this pattern is cold enough that this is very much a possibility.
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We've seen that crushed look before many, many of times. The GFS almost has it. The deep cold air is there sure enough.

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Storm5 said:
NorthGAWinterWx said:
06z GFS is an improvement IMO. The 0z Euro just shows cold and dry with maybe some snow showers and flurries mainly across the mountains. We still have a long ways to go. We're at that point where the models show things, lose them and bring them back. Don't get hooked on a model that shows a massive snowstorm because it will change. Also, I lost respect to the GFS after what happened with the last winter event earlier this month.

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I still don't get why people are trashing the gfs for the last event . In reality it's idea was correct all along. It's low placement was a little south but other than that it was the leader of the 3 global models. Models are guidance NOT reality. What people choose to believe is the problem when it comes to winter weather in the south. Should always,always ,always take any snow map with a huge grain of salt , even ones that show a dusting. Snow maps are fun to look at but reality is often far different. People are fast to post snow maps cause they look nice but they don't take the time to pull soundings and check and see exactly what type of precip the model is suggesting. 10 times out 10 snow maps are gonna be wrong even inside 24 hours much less 5 days out especially in the SE

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I know I know I know...it's just that I bought this damn sled and it just sat in the garage.


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Love the potential that is showing up at the end of the month on the GFS. Yeah, it missed the exact location of the snow around here with the last storm, but potential is the best the models can show anyway. Too many variables involved for them to get the exact amount of snow and location perfect, and the smallest things can make a big difference.
 
SD said:
Drools
gfs_z500_vort_us_33.png
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They make a bib for that!! We all know 99% of the time , GFS overdoes the cold( too cold) , so the super-cold dry look is overdone! Just like the lows after the last storm in Raleigh!
 
Oh man oh man do I like what the models are showing. As of right now I'd see snow starting on Friday off and on through about Monday. Obviously a lot can change but at least we know winter is making a comeback!


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For some reason I am not seeing posts that were made after mine.
 
0z Euro weekly has the bowling ball over Baja California. Hopefully the northern stream will help kick that bowling ball out without too much shearing. If the looks of this continues, this can turn out to have a huge potential of playing out to be a broad wide winter event. I can give credit that the GFS does good at hinting at the ideas, but it just has a hard time.
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Brick Tamland said:
For some reason I am not seeing posts that were made after mine.
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Yeah same here, Brick, and I'm defaulting back to page 1 of this thread if I'm logged in ....
 
I am moving the political stuff to the political thread. Trust me, we don't want to open that can over here. ;)
 
Shawn said:
I am moving the political stuff to the political thread.  Trust me, we don't want to open that can over here. ;)
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Lol please do.... I just knew this was the high traffic area.   :D
 
The differences between the 12Z GFS and 12Z Euro are huge just as was the case at 0Z.
 
I liked that euro run, even makes a run at a day 8-10 system that's suppressed

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Storm5 said:
I liked that euro run, even makes a run at a day 8-10 system that's suppressed

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Really like where we are headed. Looks like our time frame is the 28th-the 2nd. I know that's been stated before.


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Flo said:
What a crappy winter. Never seen these boards so dead at the end of January.
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Huh? Board seems to be humming right along and models looking up and up.


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It's too early for me to really call this winter. I will say this, I've seen plenty of stretches of 70+ in winter months, I've never seen this in January. I usually see it in December or February. It's incredible, it's like this winter compared to 2015/2016, January has ended up being the December so far.

It also doesn't matter. It can be warm all it wants right now but unless every model has busted hard, we're going to flip to a colder pattern by the last few days of the month and it seems like February is going to be cooler, but the cold snaps will be transient.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
It's too early for me to really call this winter. I will say this, I've seen plenty of stretches of 70+ in winter months, I've never seen this in January. I usually see it in December or February. It's incredible, it's like this winter compared to 2015/2016, January has ended up being the December so far.

It also doesn't matter. It can be warm all it wants right now but unless every model has busted hard, we're going to flip to a colder pattern by the last few days of the month and it seems like February is going to be cooler, but the cold snaps will be transient.
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Without a -NAO it's tough for it not to be transient. Would be nice if we could finish the winter with a big storm though.
 
who cares if it's transient? as long as we have cold shots we will have a chance

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Storm5 said:
who cares if it's transient?  as long as we have cold shots we will have a chance

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True. We have had some good quick hitting storms with transient cold. Just have to time it right.
 
Storm5 said:
who cares if it's transient?  as long as we have cold shots we will have a chance

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I'm starting to enjoy transient cold shots, easier on the heating bill and throw in a winter system threat or two and perfect....   besides more times not if the cold isn't transient it's probably cold and dry
 
metwannabe said:
Storm5 said:
who cares if it's transient?  as long as we have cold shots we will have a chance

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I'm starting to enjoy transient cold shots, easier on the heating bill and throw in a winter system threat or two and perfect....   besides more times not if the cold isn't transient it's probably cold and dry
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check your pm

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Forgetting looking at potential times to look for a storm to develop for a minute...this is the kind of pattern that I think is going to set up and all that's going to matter is if the timing works out in the long haul. It does moderate but it doesn't go back to the ridiculousness that has been this little over a two week period we've been in.
 
Been saying (elsewhere) since Oct 1 that Feb will be the cool to cold and damp to wet month - based that on the tropics (this summer analogues based on the storms that formed and where they went - 1964 and 1985 being my lead years), and MJO and SOI (as they fluctuated based on prior years) - sort of a trend line analysis by someone who doesn't know any better (!!!), and I'm sticking with that until proven wrong! So far, Nov, Dec and Jan (so far this month anyway) have pretty well worked out. I think folks pay too much long range attention to the NAO, AO and PNA etc. (though important - IMHO they are obviously important indices in the 10 - 15 day range), but the tropics seem to "carry more weight" in long range looking.
 
NorthGAWinterWx said:
I wasn't sure if it was a good idea to post this here or the severe weather thread...but any way...all of the NAM high res models are showing a 973mb low which is a 28.73 pressure reading...that mb is classified as a Cat. 2 hurricane. WOW! Look at the squall line too...amazing!
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Yea the severe thread

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