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Pattern October Oscitance

tennessee storm said:
Maybe it will ... maybe it won’t.... se ridge looks more stout than last year ...
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I wonder if you're secretly hoping the ridge never leaves, and stays locked in throughout the fall AND winter, because that would treat you to an almost endless parade of severe weather to track all winter, since we would be in the warm sector.
 
One thing that will be fascinating to watch the deeper we get into fall will be the temperature gradients where the fronts line up. You could have 80s 100 miles from 30s.
 
J.C. said:
One thing that will be fascinating to watch the deeper we get into fall will be the temperature gradients where the fronts line up. You could have 80s 100 miles from 30s.
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Which would also contribute to some severe weather outbreaks. No thanks :(
 
pcbjr said:
Just waiting for the screaming to start when pipes are bursting and there's 6 more weeks of uninterrupted dark blue on every model ... o_O
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The dark blue will hopefully be Kentucky basketball winning, winning and more winning. #gocats
 
Funny seeing AW and TWC extended forecasts showing overnight lows into the upper 50’s by 2nd week of October for ATL. Model runs consistently showing lows barely getting below 70.


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ATLwxfan said:
Funny seeing AW and TWC extended forecasts showing overnight lows into the upper 50’s by 2nd week of October for ATL. Model runs consistently showing lows barely getting below 70.

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Whatever they use always drives the temperatures near normal in the long range, it's been like that for a long time. I wouldn't pay much attention past the 5th or 6th day of that.
 
J.C. said:
Whatever they use always drives the temperatures near normal in the long range, it's been like that for a long time. I wouldn't pay more attention past the 5th or 6th day of that.
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Yeah they bank on climo


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Unrelated to the southeastern US (at least directly) but you rarely see this: Rosa in the East Pac has an outside chance to directly hit southern California. Whoever is near and right of track of Rosa will take this storm on the chin, if it happens to hit the Mojave or Sonora Deserts, some in those areas could approach or exceed their annual rainfall in just a few days or so.

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I love October. Not only because of my birthday, football, and Halloween, but because I love seeing the leaves turn colors, and it's usually some of the most comfortable weather around here.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I love October. Not only because of my birthday, football, and Halloween, but because I love seeing the leaves turn colors, and it's usually some of the most comfortable weather around here.
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Our leaves simply turned brown and started falling this year due to late spring frost + excessive summer rain.


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So does the, what's looking to become semi-permanent, Atlantic low (once Leslie about to become Leslie again) have any effect on the staying power of the SER, directly or indirectly or absolutely no correlation?
 
6z GFS is trying to send that fall front all the way through at 288. Temps look very ‘fall like’ out in la la land
 
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1047 dropping down at the beginning of October. Stout high pressure. Hopefully a sign of the type of cold air we have to work with this winter

Edit: Take with large grain of salt. This is obviously la la land for goofus
 
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
6z GFS is trying to send that fall front all the way through at 288. Temps look very ‘fall like’ out in la la land
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Well what the 6z GFS giveth, the 12z taketh away...
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GaStorm said:
Nice clash of air masses right there. TX won't mind that cool down.
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Except I don't buy it... just a week ago the GFS was projecting temps in the upper 40's and low 50's for most tomorrow morning, we see how well that worked out. Lol
 
metwannabe said:
Except I don't buy it... just a week ago the GFS was projecting temps in the upper 40's and low 50's for most tomorrow morning, we see how well that worked out. Lol
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Lol true. It took quite a while last year as well to shake that warm spell. Pretty sure we were close to 90 the first couple days of October 2017.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
View attachment 6586

1047 dropping down at the beginning of October. Stout high pressure. Hopefully a sign of the type of cold air we have to work with this winter

Edit: Take with large grain of salt. This is obviously la la land for goofus
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Canada is doing quite well early in the season. This may bode well for us down the road if blocking can get going.
 
GaStorm said:
Nice clash of air masses right there. TX won't mind that cool down.
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Cool air is forced South since it can't come east. San Antonio might get some snow this year if this ridge hangs on.
 
Tbh unless you want the warmth to go away totally, Sunday-Wednesday don't look so bad but after that...it's been hello 90s again most of the time on what I'm seeing.
 
About to set another crappy record in Columbia, SC. We haven't been below 60 since May 9, and the lowest low in the 7-day forecast is 64 degrees. I don't mind warm or hot fall temps, but at least give me a couple of crisp nights...
 
metwannabe said:
Well what the 6z GFS giveth, the 12z taketh away...
gfs_z500_mslp_us_44.png
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The models just can’t handle the pattern change! There will be huge swings in individual model runs! It’s all about pattern recognition, ensembles right now! :rolleyes::weenie:
 
Typo said:
About to set another crappy record in Columbia, SC. We haven't been below 60 since May 9, and the lowest low in the 7-day forecast is 64 degrees. I don't mind warm or hot fall temps, but at least give me a couple of crisp nights...
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You know, I saw the same thing here for Atlanta and Athens, yet I'm 30 miles away from both and that wasn't the case at my house. I do question the siting of the sensors.
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DaculaWeather said:
You know, I saw the same thing here for Atlanta and Athens, yet I'm 30 miles away from both and that wasn't the case at my house. I do question the siting of the sensors.
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Columbia's airport always seems to run a little warm compared to other spots, especially on lows. My backyard 20 miles to the northeast has gone under 60 degrees a few times too. But the mugginess has barely relented.
 
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