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Pattern May Flowers

I really hope there is not as much rain for days like people thought. Not monsoons! They are trying to finish up my house. 5 predicted months in this old house hell/rat hole has turned into 8! We need rain though but please not sooooo much.
 
FD5259FD-0994-496B-BC20-D754501192A6.png Poor SD!
 
J.C. said:
I was really hoping for some rain out of this.
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Lol. Cobb county is under a flood warning.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
931 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2018

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN COBB COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
NORTHEASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
SOUTHWESTERN FULTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY.
 
I have had a few showers off and on, but nothing major. Looks like a storm is not far away as I just got a lightning alert from my WRAL weather app. I think we are going to have to get a lot more steady rain instead of these pop up showers to reach the totals forecasted.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I have had a few showers off and on, but nothing major. Looks like a storm is not far away as I just got a lightning alert from my WRAL weather app. I think we are going to have to get a lot more steady rain instead of these pop up showers to reach the totals forecasted.
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Brick,
If I knew how, I'd be more than delighted to send this your way ... :oops:

Screen Shot 2018-05-16 at 2.44.42 PM.png
 
It might be happening soon
b896db4090dc9bfe766c5ac4b1d939f3.jpg


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Looks like Shane is about to get popped. Hopefully it makes it up my way.


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BHS1975 said:
Looks like Shane is about to get popped. Hopefully it makes it up my way.


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As much as I like to be negative about rain today through Saturday look like great chances and I doubt anyone gets shut out. Tomorrow might be our best chance for an area wide big total day as the weak low near the FL panhandle comes north. That said I'm sticking with my .5 or less for this event and will gladly eat crow if I'm wrong

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Even in a moisture laden atmosphere like we are in now, you can look at the radar, see a storm cell heading directly to you with only 15 miles to go, and it can completely dissipate leaving you dry. I'm glad we have them, but this isn't like the frontal/squall line stuff that comes in and delivers us an assured chance of rain. Of course, Florida and gulf coast deal with this airmass daily so everyone usually does score in it, so if we can stay in this airmass for a few more days, most will see rain.

Enjoy those cauliflower cumulonimbus clouds. One thing about the cloud formations in an airmass like this, you know where the storms are without needing a radar.
 
Storm5 said:
Euro is somewhat interested in a weak gulf system days 8-10

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Charlie,
Here's a "like" for the "weak"... ;)
Let's pray and hope they all stay that way this year ... :cool:
Thanks for the update.
Best!
Phil
 
SD said:
As much as I like to be negative about rain today through Saturday look like great chances and I doubt anyone gets shut out. Tomorrow might be our best chance for an area wide big total day as the weak low near the FL panhandle comes north. That said I'm sticking with my .5 or less for this event and will gladly eat crow if I'm wrong

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Weren't the models showing like 3 to 4 around here through Monday?
 
Dang, I love a good cut off. They can be so powerful. TD Alberto changed the whole rest of the summer after dropping 17 inches in a few days. If Larry's abacus says there might be a correlation between rain in these early months and a cooler summer, this could work out well. I poured 2 1/2 out today, and some of that was a downpour for 15 minutes the other day. Pile it up now, and bask in spring breezes the rest of the summer, lol. Come on cut off..just wander around in circles and rain yourself out. If you want to put 15 inches on me, I can take it :) Then bring on the tropical system in goofyland. I bet 20 inches in May would make for a very happy in August!
 
SD said:
As much as I like to be negative about rain today through Saturday look like great chances and I doubt anyone gets shut out. Tomorrow might be our best chance for an area wide big total day as the weak low near the FL panhandle comes north. That said I'm sticking with my .5 or less for this event and will gladly eat crow if I'm wrong

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I picked up 1.03 today, double your expectations in a few hours..... these storms seem to overperform imby for some reason. 2" for the month.... I don't want anymore, I'll be the guy that ends up with 4 this week

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There is one fairly small area in upstate SC that keeps missing most of the rain and I'm in the middle of it. Would not be shocked if we do not get another drop here from this event.
 
JHS said:
There is one fairly small area in upstate SC that keeps missing most of the rain and I'm in the middle of it. Would not be shocked if we do not get another drop here from this event.
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I think you just guaranteed yourself some rain ;). I think we're at about 3/4" to an inch here so far.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Weren't the models showing like 3 to 4 around here through Monday?
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Yep. Still believe our time to really score is tomorrow Friday and maybe Saturday. We actually get forcing over us instead of the central and western Piedmont. Early next week looks like it could be soggy too if the front stalls


The only bugaboo about tomorrow is the stuff off of the Ga coast. Too early and it's a cloudy cooler day with light rain. We need that to arrive sometime after noon

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SD said:
Yep. Still believe our time to really score is tomorrow Friday and maybe Saturday. We actually get forcing over us instead of the central and western Piedmont. Early next week looks like it could be soggy too if the front stalls


The only bugaboo about tomorrow is the stuff off of the Ga coast. Too early and it's a cloudy cooler day with light rain. We need that to arrive sometime after noon

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I just think it is going to be a bust. The showers I get are quick. I don't see how we get a couple of inches out of that. It is already going to be a bust based on what the models showed earlier.
 
JHS said:
There is one fairly small area in upstate SC that keeps missing most of the rain and I'm in the middle of it. Would not be shocked if we do not get another drop here from this event.
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:weenie:
 
Brick Tamland said:
I just think it is going to be a bust. The showers I get are quick. I don't see how we get a couple of inches out of that. It is already going to be a bust based on what the models showed earlier.
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Idk man. There are a couple well defined circulations to our south that will play a significant role tomorrow. Like I said earlier I'm concerned about them getting here too early and limiting instability but the 0z runs have storms kicking off as early as 15z with the first disturbance near SAV now then later in the evening with the one near TLH currently. We continue the stream of vorticity on Friday into the first half of Saturday so someone will pile up a lot of rain over the next 72 hours

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pcbjr said:
Brick,
If I knew how, I'd be more than delighted to send this your way ... :oops:

View attachment 5224
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I was in JAX late this afternoon for a short trip and witnessed these very strong thunderstorms, fortunately from inside, when they came through from SW to NE for a couple of hours. Thank goodness I didn't have to drive through these very strong storms. However, the trip back to SAV still was wet practically the entire way.
 
I will say NE AL, southeast TN and N GA have all got some pretty strong storms over these past few days. Some dropped 1-3" in a very short time. 2 days in a row. I would imagine flash flood guidance is low. Even severe warnings for a couple of the storm cells. Continues friday saturday sunday etc Looks like the current pattern continues for the next 6-12 days. Love spring time storms. About time :)
 
Rain is definitely hit and miss... I've gotten about .75" since Tuesday...while my family in Douglas County is closing in on 5.5" and most of that fell Wednesday Morning. Insane stuff.
 
Looks like today is going to be on the “dryer” side for my backyard. Hi res models only show precip making as far west as CAE through the day
 
SD said:
Idk man. There are a couple well defined circulations to our south that will play a significant role tomorrow. Like I said earlier I'm concerned about them getting here too early and limiting instability but the 0z runs have storms kicking off as early as 15z with the first disturbance near SAV now then later in the evening with the one near TLH currently. We continue the stream of vorticity on Friday into the first half of Saturday so someone will pile up a lot of rain over the next 72 hours

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3k NAM not impressed for our area that's for sure, but as I mentioned I've done much better than y'all and I'd be ok with this..... hopefully you score this time

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Got 2.7" in about 90 minutes starting at 8:30 last night in North Raleigh near Leesville HS. Only received around 0.07 over the past 2 days.
 
MBell said:
Rain is definitely hit and miss... I've gotten about .75" since Tuesday...while my family in Douglas County is closing in on 5.5" and most of that fell Wednesday Morning. Insane stuff.
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Same here, and I'm greatful for it, but south Cobb over to Douglas county got hammered yesterday morning.
 
I have seen less rain so far today than at this same time yesterday. It has been cloudy all day with some drizzle at times. I bet it will keep the storms away today. I had a couple good ones roll through last night. But today was supposed to be wetter than yesterday.
 
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