NWS ILM on Severe chances..
Southern stream Gulf Coast States 5H s/w trof will lift toward
the FA late tonight. This as it begins to get pulled into a
rather expansive upper low that it itself is rotating over the
Great Lakes States. Will see moisture from both Gulf of Mexico
and Atlantic drawn into this system, with showers and
thunderstorms spreading northward to the ILM CWA by late this
evening, and eventually encompassing the entire ILM CWA during
the pre-dawn Sun hrs. The convection will have decent
directional and speed shear combined in the lower levels.
Dynamics associated with the approaching upper s/w trof will
compensate the lack of instability (night-time) and should see
some organization that may result in strong to possibly isolated
severe tstorms late tonight, moving onshore. At this point,
Marginal to Slight(Sun) SVR risk what SPC is illustrating looks
on target.
&&&
As for severe threat, it will come down to
instability, but looks like threat of damaging wind gusts will
exist and can`t rule out an isolated tornado with the enhanced
shear in the morning as low moves up from the south. SPC has our
area outlined in a marginal for SC to slight risk for NC zones.
The strongest convection should shift off the coast but
gradient winds will increase. Expect southerly winds up to 25
mph with gusts to 40 possible mainly close to the coast. May see
some redevelopment of storms in the aftn associated with cold
front, but it depends how much instability there is left after
morning convection. Overall, expect an active day of storms with
potential for torrential rain showers and strong gusty winds.
Southern stream Gulf Coast States 5H s/w trof will lift toward
the FA late tonight. This as it begins to get pulled into a
rather expansive upper low that it itself is rotating over the
Great Lakes States. Will see moisture from both Gulf of Mexico
and Atlantic drawn into this system, with showers and
thunderstorms spreading northward to the ILM CWA by late this
evening, and eventually encompassing the entire ILM CWA during
the pre-dawn Sun hrs. The convection will have decent
directional and speed shear combined in the lower levels.
Dynamics associated with the approaching upper s/w trof will
compensate the lack of instability (night-time) and should see
some organization that may result in strong to possibly isolated
severe tstorms late tonight, moving onshore. At this point,
Marginal to Slight(Sun) SVR risk what SPC is illustrating looks
on target.
&&&
As for severe threat, it will come down to
instability, but looks like threat of damaging wind gusts will
exist and can`t rule out an isolated tornado with the enhanced
shear in the morning as low moves up from the south. SPC has our
area outlined in a marginal for SC to slight risk for NC zones.
The strongest convection should shift off the coast but
gradient winds will increase. Expect southerly winds up to 25
mph with gusts to 40 possible mainly close to the coast. May see
some redevelopment of storms in the aftn associated with cold
front, but it depends how much instability there is left after
morning convection. Overall, expect an active day of storms with
potential for torrential rain showers and strong gusty winds.
