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Severe Severe Threat 4-13/14

Discussion in 'General Weather' started by stormcentral, Apr 9, 2018.

  1. stormcentral

    stormcentral Storm Central Wx Member

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    FB_IMG_1523304653545.jpg It appears there is an increasing threat for severe weather with the weekend storm
     
  2. Brick Tamland

    Brick Tamland Member

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    This area has been ground zero for severe storms the last few years.
     
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  3. NWMSGuy

    NWMSGuy Member

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    Looks like JAN is expanding the Slight Risk area to include portions of MS according to afternoon AFD. Let's see if SPC does the same.


    Attention then shifts to the main weather concern for the week as a
    strong cold front pushes through the ArkLaMiss Friday into Saturday.
    Pacific jet energy will dive through the Great Basin Thursday night
    and help carve out a digging/amplifying trough over the Desert
    Southwest by Friday morning with a closed mid/upper-level low over
    the Northern Plains. Southerly flow ahead of the advancing system
    will help usher in upper 60s dewpoints across the area beneath
    strong height falls of 60m/12hr. Timing differences remain with the
    GFS slightly faster compared to the ECMWF, however the overall
    consensus is that severe weather will be possible Friday into
    Saturday as the front pushes through. Strong forcing, ample
    instability (SBCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg), 50kts of deep layer shear
    oriented off the boundary, a stout 50-60kt low-level jet, and steep
    mid-level lapse rates of 7-7.5 C/km will support all modes of severe
    weather with tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail all possible.
    Will continue to advertise the severe weather threat with the
    ongoing "Slight risk" area but will expand it further east to
    encompass the I-55 corridor and add a "Marginal risk" for the
    remainder of the area east of I-55.
    While locally heavy rainfall
    cannot be ruled out, the frontal passage looks to remain fast enough
    to preclude a greater flash flooding threat. A much cooler and drier
    airmass will quickly filter in behind the front by Saturday evening
    with cooler and drier weather heading into the beginning of next
    work week.
     
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  4. Hpdb301

    Hpdb301 Member

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    1st sign something mischievous is amis with potential for severe weather in your area.... The appearance of what appears to be a hurricane hunter aircraft making many passes over your area, still 5 days out from forecasted time of development.
     
  5. stormcentral

    stormcentral Storm Central Wx Member

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    Threat for severe continues. SPC outlooks areas in Mississippi valley Day 5 spreads east as the trough shifts southeastward
     
  6. vtrap90

    vtrap90 Supporter Member

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    Weather manipulation is a real thing.
     
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  7. Arcc

    Arcc Supporter Member

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    Still looking like mainly a squall line threat for much of the south. Could be a potent one though.
     
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  8. stormcentral

    stormcentral Storm Central Wx Member

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    FB_IMG_1523394029193.jpg
    Latest from WAFF AL B Travis All modes of severe weather looks possible
     
  9. accu35

    accu35 Member

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    I know I ask this once, but where TENNESSEE? "our poster" haven't heard from him in a while. This is where he'll be at with severe weather.
     
  10. cd2play

    cd2play Member

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    I think it's Bruce. Because I've read posts by the name of Bruce on Tennesseewx.com and he's posted the exact same thing, word for word, on here before. He's still posting on there.
     
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  11. Snowflowxxl

    Snowflowxxl Member

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    He’s on talkweather some as well
     
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  12. stormcentral

    stormcentral Storm Central Wx Member

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    Whats everyone's thoughts as of now
     
  13. cd2play

    cd2play Member

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    I hope we don't have thunderstorms overnight Friday night and/or early Saturday morning in Middle TN. I like to sleep in on Saturdays.
     
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  14. accu35

    accu35 Member

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    Lol, me to.
     
  15. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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    Me three
     
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  16. Rick

    Rick Member

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    Brad Travis sure hyping this up when all the others say heavy rain event
     
  17. stormcentral

    stormcentral Storm Central Wx Member

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  18. SD

    SD Staff Member Administrator

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    The overall setup really favors severe weather for a good part of the region imo. Timing might do us a small favor here in central nc

    Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
     
  19. stormcentral

    stormcentral Storm Central Wx Member

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    Wow...hyping a severe event in April in the beginning of severe season NO WAY? Its a legitimate threat. Enhanced DAY 3
     
  20. Arcc

    Arcc Supporter Member

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    Largely the same as it has been for the past four or five days with the threat being largely a potent squall line. As always the possibility of a isolated supercell ahead of the line will have the greatest tornado threat, but with the trough orientation and high amplitude, strong forcing, almost unidirectional winds from 850mb to 500mb and the orientation of the intersection of the upper level winds and the surface boundary; it will be hard for them to not be rapidly overtaken or morph into multicellular clusters.

    So the line itself will be the threat with high winds and isolated tornadoes. That said even in the early morning hours, the Euro still has SBcapes over 1000 across AL.
     
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  21. Rick

    Rick Member

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    Well I used the wrong wording I was just saying no one else was saying much so it's very confusing especially since it was days out but I know now models seem to be trending more severe so Brad is doing great
     
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  22. stormcentral

    stormcentral Storm Central Wx Member

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    nam_2018041112_084_35.11--85.49.png refcmp.us_ov (24).png
    12Z NAM hour 84 point click sounding about 50 miles west of Chattanooga. Hazard; TOR. Intense squall line
     
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  23. sigwx

    sigwx Supporter Member

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    I have a Bass tournament on Pickwick lake Saturday, based on the last GFS run it looks like Storms will start around our take off time 6:30a.m. l don't have access to the EURO' those that do, is it about the same time frame?
     
  24. sigwx

    sigwx Supporter Member

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    Boy looking at that pucker up:oops:
     
  25. Showmeyourtds

    Showmeyourtds Member

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    Gonna suck in ATL on Sunday with all this rain, much less severe. Was planning on tailgating for the Five Stripes match!
     
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  26. Claycochaser

    Claycochaser Member

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    I have one on Lay. I know last night's Euro looked like I may get half the day in dry...but I didn't pay attention up that way...but 630 sounds about right.
     
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  27. Rick

    Rick Member

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    Is it not going to do much now ?
     
  28. stormcentral

    stormcentral Storm Central Wx Member

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    THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES.
     
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  29. Rick

    Rick Member

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    Enhanced risk for Saturday looks like the worse is staying south of North Alabama
     
  30. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator Supporter

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    New day 3 [​IMG]

    Sent from my SM-J327VPP using Tapatalk
     
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